Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 You couldn't help yourself. me either.LOLWeenies at heart lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Don S on the main forum looks to be very much on board with this storm saying the 12+ for Phila is very likely and 20+ is possible. If he is that bullish that is good enough for me . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 does mt holly post Winter storm watches this evening for the entire area? I forget if it's 48 hours out or 36 that watches are posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I am in the camp that as things progress here we are going to see the best dynamics start to shift to the north and north east as we are starting to see signs of a stronger low with less confluence therefore allowing a closer to the coast track with a more N/NE progression off the Atlantic coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 does mt holly post Winter storm watches this evening for the entire area? I forget if it's 48 hours out or 36 that watches are posted. maybe watches tonight with the evening package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 If GFS shows something similar the board will crash. Seriously, the SLP track the NAM is showing seems far more reasonable then what models were showing yesterday with a suppressed system. Not gonna happen with a rapidly deepening coastal and water temps in the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 My concerns with the NAM surface vs. 500mb depiction are that the general orientation of the trough containing the closed low is still a little positive and that 500mb low is still moving steadily eastward through 84 hrs. I suppose it's slowing down a little, but does that really translate to a northward movement and a near-stall of the surface low? I'd be really cautious about just how far northward that sharp snowfall cutoff makes it. My gut says it's not going to get as far north as the NAM shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GFS at 78 looks like a N&W PHL crush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 6z was better for PHL.......looks like qpf cutback by a bunch? Or does it move out quicker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 15-20" for this forum about covers it another great run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 6z was better for PHL.......looks like qpf cutback by a bunch? Or does it move out quicker? I just saw that too, from a precip map in the NYC forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 6z was better for PHL.......looks like qpf cutback by a bunch? Or does it move out quicker? Moves out quicker and don't think it captures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GFS at 78 looks like a N&W PHL crush moves out quicker it looks like but still a good hit for all, 14-20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What I gather in other forums is the run is colder which helps us. It also seems like the surface low tracked a good deal further east and avoids total capture which means it exits quicker out to sea. Confluence up north seemed a bit stronger too. Definitely way different than the most recent NAM run which just stalls out east of us just offshore. Not sure what we need to root for here. Whatever happens though it seems very very clear that DC is ground zero. Lucky them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Moves out quicker and don't think it captures Noise at this point imo. Low jumps to an area of thunderstorms/convection well off to the east of the main slp. Possible? Anything is possible. Likely? Probably not and another example of how intense instability and convection are affecting potential storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Little to really complain about here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think of course it all comes down to banding. If you're lucky enough to get under any bands for long enough then you will cash in. That is why the DC totals are so high because they just sit under the deform band for hours and hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I have my local Wunderground page up, and it's fun refreshing it every so often to see their numbers change. Back to 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Noise at this point imo. Agree Stil 2.5 days away from start. Don't worry about precip maps at this point. Just be happy with it not being squashed south of area. Details will be worked out in the coming few runs. This is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Dawk 20 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Agree Stil 2.5 days away from start. Don't worry about precip maps at this point. Just be happy with it not being squashed south of area. Details will be worked out in the coming few runs. This is a good sign. Exactly. The confluence is weaker and the run has all the trappings of a good snow event. I agree with Wiggum that there's a weird handoff of the system and it just jumps east for no reason. Hopefully the Euro doesn't show that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Overall though even with all the snow printed out it doesn't sound like a great run. Like somebody said maybe the convection offshore screwed things up. But the whole run seemed way too progressive compared to prior runs. Want to see a capture and stall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GGEM looks great, Lehigh Valley is kinda on the edge Consensus is building back for a nice 12-18" HECS for this area, 96 may be off the table but not 83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Overall though even with all the snow printed out it doesn't sound like a great run. Like somebody said maybe the convection offshore screwed things up. But the whole run seemed way too progressive compared to prior runs. Want to see a capture and stall. sorry but a top 10 snowstorm of all time potentially is a pretty great run regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Chances Blizzard Watch/Warning will in due time be extended up towards us? Good chance, surely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Chances Blizzard Watch/Warning will in due time be extended up towards us? Good chance, surely? I would think nearly everyone in mt Hollys CWA would be getting one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Chances Blizzard Watch/Warning will in due time be extended up towards us? Good chance, surely? Lower bucks/montgomery/philly and all of NJ should be getting one imo. NW it will be borderline but I still think they will get a watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 sorry but a top 10 snowstorm of all time potentially is a pretty great run regardless. Not denying the end result was still very good for us but it could have been better. I am hoping the Euro looks good.....it has been the worst look for PHL out of all of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 CMC snow map No complaints here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 GGEM looks great, Lehigh Valley is kinda on the edge Consensus is building back for a nice 12-18" HECS for this area, 96 may be off the table but not 83 A non capture vs capture will make all the difference between an 83 vs 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gakmsg Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GGEM looks great, Lehigh Valley is kinda on the edge Consensus is building back for a nice 12-18" HECS for this area, 96 may be off the table but not 83 I'll take 83 over 96 anytime... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.