GD0815 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 qpf map? about 2 inches for PHL and surrounding burbs, slightly less N and W, more jersey.. i dont think we can post the actual maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 120 low is almost due East of 96 hrs. No race to the ENE like past runs. Obviously it was captured and drifted. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 ImageUploadedByTapatalk1453271188.337870.jpg Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk central jersey/SE PA in the 15-20" sweet spot at 10:1 ratios... nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Check out max is 3.75 LE!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 If QPF is 1.8 for Philly or close to 2", why is SVs snow maps only show like 8-12"? We getting a lot of sleet or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yeh..saw the lower numbers at eurowx.com. Looks like like southeast of Philly we have some mixing issues. Perhaps more like 9 inches.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 If QPF is 1.8 for Philly or close to 2", why is SVs snow maps only show like 8-12"? We getting a lot of sleet or something? Heard 0c line was through NYC Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 If QPF is 1.8 for Philly or close to 2", why is SVs snow maps only show like 8-12"? We getting a lot of sleet or something? Weenie tears melted 6" of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 If QPF is 1.8 for Philly or close to 2", why is SVs snow maps only show like 8-12"? We getting a lot of sleet or something? Does it factor wind, it's gonna keep totals down. No fluff factor.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 1.7 for Blue Bell/Lansdale area. Not biblical, but it's doubled from the last run, and we're back in the game. Many a page back, I mentioned I get greedy with these types of storms - and usually, we get nice surprises via banding during the Nowcast. I'll sleep well tonight - the trend has been bucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 1.7 for Blue Bell/Lansdale area. Not biblical, but it's doubled from the last run, and we're back in the game. Many a page back, I mentioned I get greedy with these types of storms - and usually, we get nice surprises via banding during the Nowcast. I'll sleep well tonight - the trend has been bucked. Miller A FTW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 not buying a changeover if DC doesn't change over. how many times has that ever happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 If QPF is 1.8 for Philly or close to 2", why is SVs snow maps only show like 8-12"? We getting a lot of sleet or something? Wxbell has Philly 15+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Temp profiles showing lots of sleet... BUT.... I'll take the significant move back north and worry about temp/types later!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Definitely a warm level in there based on howling winds off the ocean as well as moving much slower, the antecedent cold airmass had more time to modify. We definitely dont want this to move any slower, tho the Euro is clearly the extreme solution attm irt timing. Take the North shift and run with it. We can hammer out details later. Still a 3+ day away event as per the Euro. Its like that dream where you are chasing something but it stays the same distance out of your reach. Lets hope this dream has a happy ending! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Mt Holly update PLANING SHOULD NOW BE TAKING PLACE TO MINIMIZE THE ADVERSE IMPACT OFWHAT "MAY" BE A TOP 5 COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IN OUR RECORD KEEPING,DATING BACK THROUGH AT LEAST THE 1940S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Mt Holly update Wow those are some strong words should grab peoples attention! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Real wonky snow map - Dr No has some kinda serious grudge against us SEPA peeps This is way different on WX bell. This isn't the whole run though. It's only out to 108 with a lot more after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This is way different on WX bell. This isn't the whole run though. It's only out to 108 with a lot more after that. No worries still 72 long hours of runs to go nobody should celebrate anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Real wonky snow map - Dr No has some kinda serious grudge against us SEPA peeps Verbatim, that would rival the great Valentine's Day sleet storm from 07(?). Lots of mixing even well inland is what that map implies based on liquid equivalent maps. This model goes from nearly missing us completely to coming so far North at a crawl to give us mixing issues in just one run. Crazy unpredictable storm on our hands! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Jonas...WTF? Need a name like "Butch" or something.... From what I can see the Euro looks fine. Some kinks but fine for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Took the day off from tracking (I was getting too emotionally invested). Almost cancelled winter with the 12z Euro earlier. Looks like things are back on track somewhat. What is the best model to look at for severe weather that can also be used for snow storms? My theory is it will do the well because of these wildcat storm dynamics. Nice thread folks lots of quotable quotes but I chose not to address them here. As long as the track is fine we will be fine. Anticipating thundersnow accumulations could create some big local jackpots scattered all about. As it stands my forecast for RDG is 7-11" with local amounts reaching as high as 16" or more. Last few runs of the GFS make me feel confident about the SC PA and far NW burbs and I-83 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 If yesterday's GFS 12z snowfall was a battleship sinker then today's 0z would sink the whole fleet! Winner winner chicken dinner! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattMal88 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think Jonas is an ok name. Just think of Jonas the whale. This is gonna be a whale of a storm I kinda like it despite how dumb I think naming winter storms is lol. Been at work all night I'm glad to see the Euro came back north some. Now we have a few days to see where this sleet/rain/snow line will setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Looks like 6z Gfs held serve nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 I know its the NAM hi-res at the end of its range and needs to be taken with a grain of salt but verbatim that is one heck of a system on steroids building to our South! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think Jonas is an ok name. Just think of Jonas the whale. This is gonna be a whale of a storm I kinda like it despite how dumb I think naming winter storms is lol. Been at work all night I'm glad to see the Euro came back north some. Now we have a few days to see where this sleet/rain/snow line will setup.I'm sorry and I hope I don't offend any fans, but when I hear Jonas I immediately envision the Jonas Brothers and they are pretty lame and kind of on the sensitive side. I have always been opposed to TWC naming these storms. If the NWS concocted a naming system however, I would be more inclined to embrace it. But you cant name every single event like weak clippers, etc. Needs to be a low-end limit/criteria for naming... kind of how with tropical systems the winds need to exceed a certain sustained speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MsHeatMiser Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm sorry and I hope I don't offend any fans, but when I hear Jonas I immediately envision the Jonas Brothers and they are pretty lame and kind of on the sensitive side. I have always been opposed to TWC naming these storms. If the NWS concocted a naming system however, I would be more inclined to embrace it. But you cant name every single event like weak clippers, etc. Needs to be a low-end limit/criteria for naming... kind of how with tropical systems the winds need to exceed a certain sustained speed. TWC needs to use the MST3K names from Space Mutiny - I'd get on board with Storm Big McLargeHuge. Anyway, nontropical storms are best named after the fact, when their full impact is known, or simply by a descriptor and year since the impact is made memorable, e.g. March 93 Superstorm, Ash Wednesday Storm of 62, Blizzard of 96, etc. Tropical storms have a defined set of criteria that warrant a name even if the only thing they ever impact are shipping interests. In conclusion, TWC trying to name storms is like trying to make fetch happen. It's not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 6z gfs is a beaut for everyone except those on the coast. 16-24" region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 6z gfs is a beaut for everyone except those on the coast. 16-24" region wide.GFS para (whatever that is) increases those totals along the lines of 2-3' region-wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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