anthonyweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I've never used an ensemble but I'm pretty sure there's more then one panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I've never used an ensemble but I'm pretty sure there's more then one panel that is an ensemble mean, which is the average of the numerous ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So the GFS ens map is much further south with the snow totals and much harsher on the cut off above philly and snj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 DT posted the GFS ensemble DT knows better, shame on him for hugging the ens. The ens means are used more frequently in LR forecasting rather than within 72 hours of an event. There is a reason we have op models, namely because many of the perturbations on the means can be severely skewed in short range. This is gfs/euro/ggem time. In another 36 hours it will be NAM time. While not entirely useless, its time to put the ens to the back burner and ride the op models imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 EURO showing changes @ 24 hours, looks practically identical to the 00z GFS @ same time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Anything brewing on that clipper tonight? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Where's KamuSnow squirrel for some good Karma⁉️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Word of caution/advice guys....we do not need a huge hit on the 0z Euro. As long as that Southern adjustment we have seen last few runs stops and/or we even see a tick back North, take that as a win. The Euro 'usually' doesnt make drastic and massive shifts run-to-run, but rather will slowly cave to other guidance in those rare events that it was in err on a prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Word of caution/advice guys....we do not need a huge hit on the 0z Euro. As long as that Southern adjustment we have seen last few runs stops and/or we even see a tick back North, take that as a win. The Euro 'usually' doesnt make drastic and massive shifts run-to-run, but rather will slowly cave to other guidance in those rare events that it was in err on a prog. That's right , but 0z yesterday was 20" and 12z was 0". That's drastic Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 48 hrs no closed low like prior runs which closed and opened an ull a few times at this forecast time. Slp is pretty far South along Gulf Coast. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 That's right , but 0z yesterday was 20" and 12z was 0". That's drastic Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk In its wheelhouse now. The qpf cutoff is sharp, it merely shifted South a tick last run cutting qpf for many. Overall scheme and upper level features were not a massive shift however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Euro is a little bit slower which may help confluence get out of the way....storm is better developed but still appears pretty far South early on. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 72 hours, closed ull over northern alabama. Slp even farther south this run if thats possible. Confluence is weaker. Lets see where it goes...this run may or may not do it. Definitely very slow. 1000mb slp over central GA. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Ray says its shifting back NW!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Oh man DC might not exist after the Euro is done with it. As far as up here looks a lot better than 12z. a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Hr 96 CRUSHED!!!! Deep storm moved nearly due North. Area getting hammered! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 96 hours, game on! well worth staying up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 096 hrs coming up the coast!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 50/50 improvement on the euro, better that 12z but not back to last 0z amounts I don't think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Crippling storm this run guys. SE PA, NJ, DE annihilated So much for my slow steady changes on the Euro theory lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So it appears this storm is all about going slow enough to let the confluence move on and the trough to go negative to suck the storm north. I don't mind if the storm stops for some gumbo along the way as long as it gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Was not expecting the jog north jeeez, fascinating departure from the Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Much tighter, better defined system at all levels. So close to a capture at 96. Outstanding look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 not sure how anyone could be discouraged by that run. Major shift towards the GFS and GGEM camp that have been fairly consistent through and through. UKMET is on it's own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 How about the evolution of this storm now changing with a deep trough dip and riding the gulf stream lightning up the coast just classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 qpf map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Sharp cut off north of I 80, feels like 2/6/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Doubles me (from 12z) back up to ~ 20"‼️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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