baseball0618 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 to be fair, the ggem is not as good for our area as the gfs, and does not have the same evolution (it seems to be playing with the idea of two low's again) EDIT-it is still pretty darn good. it's very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 UKMET came north some, but nothing like GFS/GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 it's very similar. the end results are fairly similar, but how it gets there is different. i just don't like to trash people for their ideas, I don't really know Mike Masco's work well, but i'm in no position to say he is wrong or bad at his job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 the end results are fairly similar, but how it gets there is different. i just don't like to trash people for their ideas, I don't really know Mike Masco's work well, but i'm in no position to say he is wrong or bad at his job. The fact that you live in Philly and don't know who he is speaks volumes. His Fox 29 met. He's not good and I'll just say it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 the end results are fairly similar, but how it gets there is different. i just don't like to trash people for their ideas, I don't really know Mike Masco's work well, but i'm in no position to say he is wrong or bad at his job. Do not mistake my feelings about him as me thinking the GFS is ultimately right I just have read some of his blabber over the past 5+ years and he's not very good. He's also in like his third city in 5 years so that doesn't say much either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 the end results are fairly similar, but how it gets there is different. i just don't like to trash people for their ideas, I don't really know Mike Masco's work well, but i'm in no position to say he is wrong or bad at his job. he doesn't have a met degree. he just plays one on tv. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 UKMET came north some, but nothing like GFS/GGEM not sure where you got that but it's not out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GGEM is a huge hit as well.as much flak as the model gets, it has been incredibly consistent with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 not sure where you got that but it's not out yet yup, i just realized that was from last night, my bad. it must be running late, it is usually out by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The fact that you live in Philly and don't know who he is speaks volumes. His Fox 29 met. He's not good and I'll just say it. i haven't watched local news in over a decade, so don't judge by that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Ralph is good people. He'll be up all night. These damn storms kill me...getting too old for this shiet. Oh yeah...the storm? Who knows? Well, up off-and-on all night :-)Just awoke from my slumber and after taking a quick peek at guidance just wanted to say I feel a lot more comfy at this hour. To steal a phrase from my buddy DT, my "first call" coming after 12z as I've been saying since last week. We need to wait until all players are on the field before committing to anything while tempering expectation all-the-while. Might stay up for Euro if I can keep my eyes open, otherwise see you at some random hour in the middle of the night :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 0z is midnight and 12z is noon correct? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 It doesn't look goodYou're smokin' that real good sensi, man. If I still indulged I'd ask you for a hit, but keep on puffin bruh imp: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 0z is midnight and 12z is noon correct? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39231-forecast-model-information/#entry3884604I think we add/subtract an hour for daylight saving time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Caution is urged for reading to much into that great OP GFS run, ensembles unchanged from 18z Philly and up only .10" Allentown UKMET is a good bit further south with our storm than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39231-forecast-model-information/#entry3884604 I think we add/subtract an hour for daylight saving time. I mean when looking at model map times not when models come out. If the snow is starting at 12z that would mean..... Ya know what I mean Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I mean when looking at model map times not when models come out. If the snow is starting at 12z that would mean..... Ya know what I mean Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk 7pm and 7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 WOW! Fantastic! Giddy up! Where is Ralph??? Had to nap with these crazy kids getting me up at 530am every morning :wave: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 7pm and 7am So between midnight and 7 am Saturday morning nam already has 5" fallen at ABE... nam but just trying to make sense of the Z time scale Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What is really worrying me that there still individual ensemble GFS members that actually completely miss our region to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Fact that the 00z UK is extremely south worries me about the ECM, usually follows its path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 0z is midnight and 12z is noon correct? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk - 5 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What is really worrying me that there still individual ensemble GFS members that actually completely miss our region to the south Plural...how many? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Fwiw mike masco reporting feedback problems Two issues I see with the GFS:1. The storm is so dynamic it is literally firing bands of thundersnow and extremely heavy convection yielding zones of subsidence at times alongside the convective activity. This is slightly skewing qpf total. If anything, verbatim on this run based on o50 level winds, 700mb rh, and 500mb vorticity and dynamics as well as surface low track....qpf could actually be slightly underdone and 2. There is convective feedback well off the coast which is, possibly in error, causing a second lp to form (dual low look) and rushing the system ENE. If anything, again nased on factors mentioned above, the storm could stall and/or move slightly slower than the center jump that is shown here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Good explanation Ralph thanks Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Fact that the 00z UK is extremely south worries me about the ECM, usually follows its path. Im not worried about the ensemble members of the GFS, with so many there will always be variance in the solutions. The UKMET is a good model, IMO, though, so I do take that as a caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 to be fair, the ggem is not as good for our area as the gfs, and does not have the same evolution (it seems to be playing with the idea of two low's again) EDIT-it is still pretty darn good.I really am starting to think this center jump quickly ENE is more a convective feedback issue/noise than anything else. Models are going to struggle nailing down 100% a storm with such dynamics imho. Gonna be more of a nowcasting thing come Saturday in regards to movement quickly ENE or a stall/slow mover. Maybe we will get answers sooner, likely not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What is really worrying me that there still individual ensemble GFS members that actually completely miss our region to the south and there are many more members that are N and W... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 DT posted the GFS ensemble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 The gfs could very well be close to being correct when all is said and done. Would like to wait until 12z to decide this, which gives 2 more Euro runs as well. I still do urge caution to anyone hugging the gfs alone and ignoring ens means and other data. With that said, dont be surprised if the 6z gfs comes in a little farther south and/or slightly drier/weaker. 0z is an extreme solution....not impossible as it does have 'some' support from the ggem, but expect some fluctuations and shifts next several runs as 0z was/is about as perfect as you can get for us. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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