Treckasec Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Decided to look at my forecast on Accuweather for the heck of it. Forecasting 78 mph gusts??? That sounds a bit high. No, not for the coast, for my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BBasile Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Decided to look at my forecast on Accuweather for the heck of it. Forecasting 78 mph gusts??? That sounds a bit high. No, not for the coast, for my location. AccuWeather also has like a 350 day extended, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM has a great look at the end of it's range. Lots of WAA snow, where it goes beyond that is anyones guess but seems like everyone would get a solid hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 we kid because we love...you're good, dude Ralph is good people. He'll be up all night. These damn storms kill me...getting too old for this shiet. Oh yeah...the storm? Who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Jeez, the nam. If only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Nam for S&G Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Not sure if I buy the NW direction the Nam takes from 81 to 84. It literally rounds the horn at NC outerbanks then heads up the Chesapeake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Not sure if I buy the NW direction the Nam takes from 81 to 84. It literally rounds the horn at NC outerbanks then heads up the Chesapeake. I don't buy that either but I think a closer to the coast solution is more likely than suppression. hopefully the nam is a sign of things to come for the rest of the 00z suite with regard to suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 If you're interested Earthlight has a radio show going about this storm. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/nymetrowx/2016/01/20/potential-winter-storm-january-22-23-2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I haven't bought all in on this because we have been bitten before...Boxing Day storm, looking at you. But the gradient/south shift makes my stomach hurt. Why do I do this to myself? Big run coming up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 If you're interested Earthlight has a radio show going about this storm. http://www.blogtalkradio.com/nymetrowx/2016/01/20/potential-winter-storm-january-22-23-2016 Thank You, the other radio show was depressing the heck out of me listening to them talk about thundersnow, blizzard conditions 5' drifts and a week to clean up from DC to RIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I don't buy that either but I think a closer to the coast solution is more likely than suppression. hopefully the nam is a sign of things to come for the rest of the 00z suite with regard to suppression. the Nam hr 84 hour tuck is probably nonsense (since it moves the low NW into part of Chesapeake Bay) thou it's possible. the thing you want to see that the nam shows is LESS CONFLUENCE over Northern New England which will let that precip on the N side of system expand nicely and someone in this forum can really cash in on the mid level deform bands as less confluence will allow mid level low room to get a little further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 the Nam hr 84 hour tuck is probably nonsense (since it moves the low NW into part of Chesapeake Bay) thou it's possible. the thing you want to see that the nam shows is LESS CONFLUENCE over Northern New England which will let that precip on the N side of system expand nicely and someone in this forum can really cash in on the mid level deform bands as less confluence will allow mid level low room to get a little further north. This^^^^ Thanks for your analysis... Headed your way next week to take daughter back to UNH!!! May stay up there til Spring if this one misses us!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Nice radio show going on.....snow88 should call in to add insight to the conversation. These next GFS/Euro runs are killer somewhat....no sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Break down the GFS anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Break down the GFS anyone? It doesn't look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It doesn't look good Ya sure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It doesn't look good ????? looks pretty good to me, still not the jackpot or anything, but it looks fine. The farther away from 95 you get, there might be some fringing issues, but all in all it looks pretty solid. EDIT--it is better than I originally thought, look at the front end snow totals in PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 ULL is stronger and further SW, but the trough goes more negative and heights build along the east coast. Going to be a better run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 ????? looks pretty good to me, still not the jackpot or anything, but it looks fine Need to see where deform sets up....sounded like the WAA was all south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It doesn't look good lol what? philly and burbs get crushed by WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Ya sure? no, he's wrong, it is very good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GFS is improved, no south jog this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Huge north trend from 18z. Higher heights in the east cause the H5 low to cut off early, which means the surface low has nowhere to go but north. Let's hope we keep seeing this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 UGH frozen for me. Anyone have 81-96 yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 no, he's wrong, it is very goodGotta say these "premature evacuations" by some drives me NUTS...Thanks for honest analysis!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 no, he's wrong, it is very good I lost my brain for a second? I'll take this and run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 no, he's wrong, it is very good yeah, sorry guys. based on the low location early on it looked bad, but sounds like it worked out. Panels frozen for me so I am still not seeing anything past 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 HR 96 snow total, and still have more to come. it doesn't look good if you have plans saturday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Really, what the hell is wrong with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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