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January 22-23 Storm Threat


Ralph Wiggum

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Not sure if I buy the NW direction the Nam takes from 81 to 84.  It literally rounds the horn at NC outerbanks then heads up the Chesapeake. 

I don't buy that either but I think a closer to the coast solution is more likely than suppression. hopefully the nam is a sign of things to come for the rest of the 00z suite with regard to suppression.

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If you're interested Earthlight has a radio show going about this storm.

 

 http://www.blogtalkradio.com/nymetrowx/2016/01/20/potential-winter-storm-january-22-23-2016

Thank You, the other radio show was depressing the heck out of me listening to them talk about  thundersnow, blizzard conditions  5' drifts and a week to clean up from DC to RIC

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I don't buy that either but I think a closer to the coast solution is more likely than suppression. hopefully the nam is a sign of things to come for the rest of the 00z suite with regard to suppression.

 

the Nam hr 84 hour tuck is probably nonsense (since it moves the low NW into part of Chesapeake Bay) thou it's possible.

 

the thing you want to see that the nam shows is LESS CONFLUENCE over Northern New England which will let that precip on the N side of system expand nicely and someone in this forum can really cash in on the mid level deform bands as less confluence will allow mid level low room to get a little further north.

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the Nam hr 84 hour tuck is probably nonsense (since it moves the low NW into part of Chesapeake Bay) thou it's possible.

 

the thing you want to see that the nam shows is LESS CONFLUENCE over Northern New England which will let that precip on the N side of system expand nicely and someone in this forum can really cash in on the mid level deform bands as less confluence will allow mid level low room to get a little further north.

This^^^^

Thanks for your analysis...

Headed your way next week to take daughter back to UNH!!!

May stay up there til Spring if this one misses us!!

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It doesn't look good

?????

 

 

looks pretty good to me, still not the jackpot or anything, but it looks fine.  The farther away from 95 you get, there might be some fringing issues, but all in all it looks pretty solid.  EDIT--it is better than I originally thought, look at the front end snow totals in PHL.

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