anthonyweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The GFS worries me for northern areas. It took a fairly large jump south with the northern extent of the precip shield from 12z. Another shift like that and we're on the cutoff in the Lehigh Valley. I'm assuming the GFS has the LHV under the CCB hence the crushing on 18z. But just one run before that CCB was in NEPA, now there is nada Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 18-20 on GFS. To be honest EURO didn't really worry me too much. As bluehens said, the GFS has been pretty consistent. Doesn't mean it won't change or that it's totally right, but I'm leaning towards the GFS. We might trend a bit more south now, but I feel like the EURO will go to a more GFS solution, but the EURO has been the leader of trends if I'm remembering correctly. Tomorrow will be a big model day, and I'm a bit pumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 WE`VE DISCUSSED THE 12Z/19 SE OF ENSEMBLE MEAN 12Z ECMWF AND UKMET.WE NOTED WITHIN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES THAT AT LEAST 7 OR 8 MEMBERSHAD THE LOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OF ENSEMBLE CLUSTERED MEAN. THATSUGGESTS TO US THAT THIS RUN OF THE ECMWF WILL BE A RELATIVE OUTLIERTO THE VERY ROBUST NEWD MOVING GEFS.THEREFORE, WE STAY ON COURSE, ONLY BEING A LITTLE MORE CAREFULABOUT WHAT MAY OR MAY NOT HAPPEN N OF I-78.TIMING, AXIS AND AMOUNTS OF HEAVIEST PCPN, THE PERSISTENT LOCATIONOF THE RAIN SNOW LINE, AS WELL AS STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ALONG THECOASTS STILL REMAIN WITH A VARIETY OF POSSIBILITIES. From Mt Holly AFD http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The GFS worries me for northern areas. It took a fairly large jump south with the northern extent of the precip shield from 12z. Another shift like that and we're on the cutoff in the Lehigh Valley. This - 50 mile shift south this run, still great for everybody Lehigh Valley south but wiggle room is down to zero on it Those insanity 40" amounts are now 30 miles SE of DC! some NW of DC are not happy. Follow the ever moving bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I seem to remember a storm last year that trended back to SEPA late after things looked bleak... hoping for a rerun of that March event (I know, different set up). Also, is it me wish casting or does the confluence tend to be overdone on models at this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Someone once said that the latitude where a storm enters the West Coast is generally the same latitude where it will exit the East Coast. Not sure if there is any truth to this, but that would yield an exit around the DelMarVa peninsula approximately. That would ultimately spell some pretty good news in our region. Lots of time to go, keep expectations low but hope for the best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 18z GEFS is still a solid SEPA hit but continues to slowly tick South vs 6z and 12z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Just a thought, but I think it is unprecedented to have a KU storm jackpot DC and not hit PHL pretty good. I know the Knickerbocker storm wasn't as strong in PHL but it was still a big hit. That doesn't mean we have to get as much snow as DC/Baltimore/VA, but it is pretty hard for us to whiff in that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GEFS are bad makes the OP and a couple members the outlier, not what I wanted to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 Lets think positive here for 0Z guys. Things cant really keep ticking too much farther South so I fully expect an adjustment slightly North tonight on the GFS and Euro families. I really believe we have seen the Southern most extent of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GEFS isn't that bad for us. 1.25"-1.5" QPF for PHL and more importantly its colder so maybe 12:1 ratios for the city and NW. I hope were not complaining about "only" a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GEFS isn't that bad for us. 1.25"-1.5" QPF for PHL and more importantly its colder so maybe 12:1 ratios for the city and NW. I hope were not complaining about "only" a foot of snow. For us? Allentown is .4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 GEFS are bad makes the OP and a couple members the outlier, not what I wanted to see *sigh* there are plenty of members that show a very good hit for PHL. and it isn't that different than the OP. the mean is for around 16 inches of snow for PHL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Okay it's good for the city and the southern parts of our area. Allentown would probably still get 6" from this run with ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 For us? Allentown is .4" OP is 1.3 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 you realize the 18z GEFS looks a lot like the 12z GEFS right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 *sigh* there are plenty of members that show a very good hit for PHL. and it isn't that different than the OP. the mean is for around 16 inches of snow for PHL! Allentown and Lehigh Valley are in this forum not talking Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WebBreaker63 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 OP is 1.3 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Yes I am referring to the GEFS however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WebBreaker63 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 For us coastal contributors, there is major concern with more snow, winds and high tide - depending which model you look at, GFS up and out or ECM slow and trouble. BTW appreciate Mr. Wiggums analysis greatly. Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Just a thought, but I think it is unprecedented to have a KU storm jackpot DC and not hit PHL pretty good. I know the Knickerbocker storm wasn't as strong in PHL but it was still a big hit. That doesn't mean we have to get as much snow as DC/Baltimore/VA, but it is pretty hard for us to whiff in that setup. I can't give you the exact date, but in 2009/10 before we began to cash in Balt/DC got slammed and we were fringed with flurries. I'm guessing this was late Jan 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I can't give you the exact date, but in 2009/10 before we began to cash in Balt/DC got slammed and we were fringed with flurries. I'm guessing this was late Jan 2010. February 5, 2010? Phl got about 25 inches ,give or take. I know there was a sharp cutoff, but I can't imagine landsdale only got flurries?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 February 5, 2010? Phl got about 25 inches ,give or take. I know there was a sharp cutoff, but I can't imagine landsdale only got flurries?? No, this was probably a week or two before that. In fact, there was a funny (not so much at the time) visible sat photo posted by Q'town showing the snow cover over all of the NE, except for SE PA. Fortunately our luck turned in early Feb and the rest of that winter rocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delijoe Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Does anyone know when the energy is coming onshore tonight? Bernie Rayno from AccuWeather said to pay attention to how far north the energy comes ashore. If it comes in further south then progged then start to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 No, this was probably a week or two before that. In fact, there was a funny (not so much at the time) visible sat photo posted by Q'town showing the snow cover over all of the NE, except for SE PA. Fortunately our luck turned in early Feb and the rest of that winter rocked. im not sure you are remembering the right winter, even before the two February storms, we had a massive snowstorm in december, which gave about 20 inches plus to the area. I dont think we needed our luck to turn around. In any event, my point was to big storms, i know there are smaller ones that can slide south of us and hit DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 im not sure you are remembering the right winter, even before the two February storms, we had a massive snowstorm in december, which gave about 20 inches plus to the area. I dont think we needed our luck to turn around. In any event, my point was to big storms, i know there are smaller ones that can slide south of us and hit DC area. It was 1/30/2010. Looks like Philly got about 2" while DC picked up 6.5". I thought they got more than that (probably because Ji was trolling us!). But yeah, I guess I kind of helped make your point about DC getting KU'ed while we sat high and dry. Keep hope alive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Is this thing really trending that far south now? For people to talk about DC out of the game? Where is that coming from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Is this thing really trending that far south now? For people to talk about DC out of the game? Where is that coming from? Nope, just one run of the euro has the weenie river full of bodies. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 As per Anthony in NYC, sref leaning Northward. Took a look and he is correct. Major differences to the North of the low from 66-84 hours. How reliable the srefs are, Im not sure. I dont generally use them at this range. A good start though for tonight perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 DGEX shifted North considerably, but take this model with a grain of salt. It is essentially the long range NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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