hazwoper Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I am telling you, how many times in our many years of tracking storms in this area have Miller As done this only to trend north as we get closer to the event? It has happened numerous times. And with the warm waters off the coast and what I see as not a screaming suppression signal I have to believe this will come north yet again. If I am wrong, so be it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LehighValleyDad Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I am telling you, how many times in our many years of tracking storms in this area have Miller As done this only to trend north as we get closer to the event? It has happened numerous times. And with the warm waters off the coast and what I see as not a screaming suppression signal I have to believe this will come north yet again. If I am wrong, so be it.... It's certainly possible .... The oft worshipped 1996 storm was just like that for the Lehigh Valley. I can remember 24 hours before the event I was extremely aggravated by the forecasts for 1 to 2 inches and a miss to the south. It seems for the big ones, we always have to flirt with danger (i.e. either a complete miss or a change to rain/sleet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Sheena said it may snow depending on the track....riveting indeed. But she is easy on the eyes.LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 i'm a brick.jpgWatch "Nelson" on YouTubehttps://youtu.be/rX7wtNOkuHo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Can we bring back the weenie tags and give Wiggum 2? Im fine with your opinion, but why? Because I am showing some concern? Its not like I'm making stuff up and pulling misinformation out of thin air. I've provided facts, maps, etc. Anyone who is going to sit there and say the threat is as good or better than 48 hours ago is lying to themselves and other members of this forum. Yes, there is some data still suggesting a big hit, I'm not saying there isn't, but there has been a clear shift away from the unanimous overwhelming agreement we had 48 hours ago for a Nesis 4 or even 5 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z para gfs map...but a significant storm is off the table lol Look at that thing explode over the warm water -- 6-7" QPF.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Ralph brings a ton to this forum, he's a valuable poster. Even the most levelheaded weather forecasters would overreact to seeing the Euro way south after a week of getting consistent poundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
svh19044 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I am telling you, how many times in our many years of tracking storms in this area have Miller As done this only to trend north as we get closer to the event? It has happened numerous times. And with the warm waters off the coast and what I see as not a screaming suppression signal I have to believe this will come north yet again. If I am wrong, so be it.... This is what I have observed as well, but when I stated this earlier it was quickly dismissed. It will jog back north a bit, sometimes a LOT, then corrects itself to a happy medium. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Im fine with your opinion, but why? Because I am showing some concern? Its not like I'm making stuff up and pulling misinformation out of thin air. I've provided facts, maps, etc. Anyone who is going to sit there and say the threat is as good or better than 48 hours ago is lying to themselves and other members of this forum. Yes, there is some data still suggesting a big hit, I'm not saying there isn't, but there has been a clear shift away from the unanimous overwhelming agreement we had 48 hours ago for a Nesis 4 or even 5 event. we kid because we love...you're good, dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 we kid because we love...you're good, dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Now I fully expect the 18Z GFS to come North with 2-3' totals in SEPA I believe it was Paul (ChescoWx) that said this would happen. Unanimous overwhelming agreement thru Tuesday (today) then a shift South. Textbook with big storms. Now we await the Northward adjustment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z para gfs map...but a significant storm is off the table lol What is the word on the para ECM I think I heard in a month or two it will replace the current model. WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Out to 36 and the 18z GFS looks very similar to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 What is the word on the para ECM I think I heard in a month or two it will replace the current model. WOW it didn't update yesterday and hasn't yet today that I've seen. it's been inconsistent in it's operation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 it didn't update yesterday and hasn't yet today that I've seen. it's been inconsistent in it's operation. What about the para-GFS? I dont honestly know much about it. Reliable? Will it replace the current GFS OP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Negligible difference on the 18Z GFS vs 12Z thru 7hrs. Maybe a hair farther South but again, negligible. Doesnt appear like it will have a wild swing one way or the other this run at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 the 500 mb low is slightly south of 12z, more confluence over Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 18Z GFS BIG hit hr 84 via WAA ! Lets see where it goes from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Clearly farther North than the Euro with ULL: VS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 gfs is an absolute crushing, may be better than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 how's that 2 feet on the gfs working out for you? a long way to go here, let's try not canceling anything this far out, especially given the amazing signal for a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS is so consistent it is hard to be ignored Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 how's that 2 feet on the gfs working out for you? a long way to go here, let's try not canceling anything this far out, especially given the amazing signal for a storm. Tough call til tomorrow at least. On one hand you have the mighty Euro ticking South and wanting no parts of what the GFS is dishing out, on the other hand you have the GFS which has ultimately been more consistent still showing a big hit. Really tough call at this stage still. All options clearly still on the table tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 GFS is so consistent it is hard to be ignored ^^^this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Clearly farther North than the Euro with ULL: VS dam I was just pondering putting this together.....thanks for saving me some time Until you see it side by side the significance (distance) can get lost in translation. WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 gfs shows 1.5" +qpf.....with temps upper 20's to 30 for I95 with ratios i will take that anyday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 ImageUploadedByTapatalk1453241535.546879.jpg Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Is that a 10:1 ratio? If so, wow on DC area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The GFS worries me for northern areas. It took a fairly large jump south with the northern extent of the precip shield from 12z. Another shift like that and we're on the cutoff in the Lehigh Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Is that a 10:1 ratio? If so, wow on DC area! Yes I believe so. Waiting for total qpf. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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