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January 22-23 Storm Threat


Ralph Wiggum

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Well what you are regurgitating is not accurate . The EPS are south of OZ but north of the OP

You are correct. Not sure that is saying much tho considering how far South the Euro op is.

In any event, I'm not throwing in the towel. Taking a deep breath and stepping away from the computer for a little while. I am going to take my own advice and make a call come 12z-18z tomorrow. Til then, its probably just noise on the models as they adjust to the energy coming onshore out West.

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NAVGEM is a complete miss save for some rain showers or flurries.

Well, at least the threat tanked completely all in one run rather than stringing us along until Friday night.

If no reversal changes by 12z Wednesday, Im sticking a fork in this one.

this is a troll post right?  the threat is over because the euro is south, mind you still showing 9 inches for PHL. BTW, the euro ensemble mean is better.   Maybe it is a trend, maybe it comes back north some, but to say the threat is tanked from one run is drivel.

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BTW, even the "terrible" euro is the biggest snowfall in PHL in two years, i believe.  There is room for this to come back north, and a 50 mile job 3 days out on the models is nothing.  Now if everything keeps coming in south the next day, we can start to discuss the possibility that this might not be a storm for our area, but it is way too soon. 

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jeeze what happened this afternoon? one model is south(still giving philly close to 10 inches as a major outlier) and people are melting down? highly doubt the euro verifies. i think we'll see a consistent north trend starting tonight or 12z tomorrow up until the event, there isn't much screaming suppression in this set up. I'd only be slightly worried if I were in the far NW. SE PA is still game for at least a foot imo.

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Are people typically so quick to write off a system based on a single model run? Or is it just a residual effect of a snowless winter?

Ralph has done this before.  The funny thing is that he knows his stuff better than a lot of posters, but he swings wildly with model runs.  I tend not to write off storms that still show the city getting almost a foot, call me crazy.  There are a ton of Euro ensemble members that still crush us.

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Ralph has done this before.  The funny thing is that he knows his stuff better than a lot of posters, but he swings wildly with model runs.  I tend not to write off storms that still show the city getting almost a foot, call me crazy.  There are a ton of Euro ensemble members that still crush us.

 

The concering part is the comparison of the 12z EPS to the 00z EPS...its still south. Not as much as the OP, but south nonetheless.

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Ugh, Im not writing anything off guys. Downplaying a monster hit, yes! Suggesting a complete miss? Absolutely not! Not sure I like where the Euro op is at, obviously. The EPS ticked South. Other models lose the capture. Right now I'm leaning progressive storm, decent WAA thump, then outta here. Could we still get substantial snows? Absolutely. We get something considerable this weekend, but not the upwards of 20" models were showing 48 hours ago. As someone kindly said, "Ralph knows his stuff"....I appreciate that. And I back that up by also saying I know when to lean one way or another and it is NOT solely because of 12Z today. Hints of this began at 12Z yesterday with the GFS shifting. 

 

Let's all regroup and just hope for the best. There is still 3 LONG days to go so we can adjust things for the better.

 

Hope this is clear.

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NAM is a little out of its effective range, but looks good for our area. EDIT-it would crush us.  Again, take with a grain of salt.

NAM completely would miss a capture verbatim. Low is escaping off of OBX with ULL way back over the Tenn Valley. Solid front end WAA thump then gone. Alas, it is the 84 hr NAM. 

 

Just telling it like it is guys, no need to hate. 

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NAM completely would miss a capture verbatim. Low is escaping off of OBX with ULL way back over the Tenn Valley. Solid front end WAA thump then gone. Alas, it is the 84 hr NAM. 

 

Just telling it like it is guys, no need to hate. 

the NAM extrapolated would be well over a foot of snow for the area.  The GFS missed the capture also, btw, I agree maybe the 20 plus snowfall is less likely, but I object to saying "the threat is tanked", which is what you said verbatim. 

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the NAM extrapolated would be well over a foot of snow for the area.  The GFS missed the capture also, btw, I agree maybe the 20 plus snowfall is less likely, but I object to saying "the threat is tanked", which is what you said verbatim. 

Fair enough. That was an obscene overreaction. Hope I made it clear tho that I am not giving up on a major snow event for part of the area?

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Ugh, Im not writing anything off guys. Downplaying a monster hit, yes! Suggesting a complete miss? Absolutely not! Not sure I like where the Euro op is at, obviously. The EPS ticked South. Other models lose the capture. Right now I'm leaning progressive storm, decent WAA thump, then outta here. Could we still get substantial snows? Absolutely. We get something considerable this weekend, but not the upwards of 20" models were showing 48 hours ago. As someone kindly said, "Ralph knows his stuff"....I appreciate that. And I back that up by also saying I know when to lean one way or another and it is NOT solely because of 12Z today. Hints of this began at 12Z yesterday with the GFS shifting. 

 

Let's all regroup and just hope for the best. There is still 3 LONG days to go so we can adjust things for the better.

 

Hope this is clear.

The thing I worry about is the power of the El nino to create a more progressive flow and break down the convergence creating more ENE track than a NNE track.

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