baseball0618 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I dont frequent the MA forum, honestly. I think I posted once there earlier today. NYC forum ftw! Well what you are regurgitating is not accurate . The EPS are south of OZ but north of the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Well what you are regurgitating is not accurate . The EPS are south of OZ but north of the OPYou are correct. Not sure that is saying much tho considering how far South the Euro op is. In any event, I'm not throwing in the towel. Taking a deep breath and stepping away from the computer for a little while. I am going to take my own advice and make a call come 12z-18z tomorrow. Til then, its probably just noise on the models as they adjust to the energy coming onshore out West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 No worries, Ralph. I think this video below summarizes how we all felt as we opened the 12Z Euro. It summarizes it pretty well from our initial excitement to the angfry ending, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pY_Oex-Zk3c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 NAVGEM is a complete miss save for some rain showers or flurries. Well, at least the threat tanked completely all in one run rather than stringing us along until Friday night. If no reversal changes by 12z Wednesday, Im sticking a fork in this one. this is a troll post right? the threat is over because the euro is south, mind you still showing 9 inches for PHL. BTW, the euro ensemble mean is better. Maybe it is a trend, maybe it comes back north some, but to say the threat is tanked from one run is drivel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 BTW, even the "terrible" euro is the biggest snowfall in PHL in two years, i believe. There is room for this to come back north, and a 50 mile job 3 days out on the models is nothing. Now if everything keeps coming in south the next day, we can start to discuss the possibility that this might not be a storm for our area, but it is way too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 jeeze what happened this afternoon? one model is south(still giving philly close to 10 inches as a major outlier) and people are melting down? highly doubt the euro verifies. i think we'll see a consistent north trend starting tonight or 12z tomorrow up until the event, there isn't much screaming suppression in this set up. I'd only be slightly worried if I were in the far NW. SE PA is still game for at least a foot imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Are people typically so quick to write off a system based on a single model run? Or is it just a residual effect of a snowless winter? Ralph has done this before. The funny thing is that he knows his stuff better than a lot of posters, but he swings wildly with model runs. I tend not to write off storms that still show the city getting almost a foot, call me crazy. There are a ton of Euro ensemble members that still crush us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Ralph has done this before. The funny thing is that he knows his stuff better than a lot of posters, but he swings wildly with model runs. I tend not to write off storms that still show the city getting almost a foot, call me crazy. There are a ton of Euro ensemble members that still crush us. The concering part is the comparison of the 12z EPS to the 00z EPS...its still south. Not as much as the OP, but south nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 From Mid Atl forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Are people typically so quick to write off a system based on a single model run? Or is it just a residual effect of a snowless winter? 1) yes and 2) doesn't help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 NAM is a little out of its effective range, but looks good for our area. EDIT-it would crush us. Again, take with a grain of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The concering part is the comparison of the 12z EPS to the 00z EPS...its still south. Not as much as the OP, but south nonetheless. You had to expect the ensemble mean to come south after the OP did, the fact that it is not as far south is a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 somehow every winter, the boards feel like groundhogs day (the movie) After Dec 2015 I am loving January 2016. "So, you are saying there is a chance" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Ugh, Im not writing anything off guys. Downplaying a monster hit, yes! Suggesting a complete miss? Absolutely not! Not sure I like where the Euro op is at, obviously. The EPS ticked South. Other models lose the capture. Right now I'm leaning progressive storm, decent WAA thump, then outta here. Could we still get substantial snows? Absolutely. We get something considerable this weekend, but not the upwards of 20" models were showing 48 hours ago. As someone kindly said, "Ralph knows his stuff"....I appreciate that. And I back that up by also saying I know when to lean one way or another and it is NOT solely because of 12Z today. Hints of this began at 12Z yesterday with the GFS shifting. Let's all regroup and just hope for the best. There is still 3 LONG days to go so we can adjust things for the better. Hope this is clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 NAM is a little out of its effective range, but looks good for our area. EDIT-it would crush us. Again, take with a grain of salt. NAM completely would miss a capture verbatim. Low is escaping off of OBX with ULL way back over the Tenn Valley. Solid front end WAA thump then gone. Alas, it is the 84 hr NAM. Just telling it like it is guys, no need to hate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 NAM completely would miss a capture verbatim. Low is escaping off of OBX with ULL way back over the Tenn Valley. Solid front end WAA thump then gone. Alas, it is the 84 hr NAM. Just telling it like it is guys, no need to hate. the NAM extrapolated would be well over a foot of snow for the area. The GFS missed the capture also, btw, I agree maybe the 20 plus snowfall is less likely, but I object to saying "the threat is tanked", which is what you said verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 the NAM extrapolated would be well over a foot of snow for the area. The GFS missed the capture also, btw, I agree maybe the 20 plus snowfall is less likely, but I object to saying "the threat is tanked", which is what you said verbatim. Fair enough. That was an obscene overreaction. Hope I made it clear tho that I am not giving up on a major snow event for part of the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Ugh, Im not writing anything off guys. Downplaying a monster hit, yes! Suggesting a complete miss? Absolutely not! Not sure I like where the Euro op is at, obviously. The EPS ticked South. Other models lose the capture. Right now I'm leaning progressive storm, decent WAA thump, then outta here. Could we still get substantial snows? Absolutely. We get something considerable this weekend, but not the upwards of 20" models were showing 48 hours ago. As someone kindly said, "Ralph knows his stuff"....I appreciate that. And I back that up by also saying I know when to lean one way or another and it is NOT solely because of 12Z today. Hints of this began at 12Z yesterday with the GFS shifting. Let's all regroup and just hope for the best. There is still 3 LONG days to go so we can adjust things for the better. Hope this is clear. The thing I worry about is the power of the El nino to create a more progressive flow and break down the convergence creating more ENE track than a NNE track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 DGEX is 18-24 for extreme SEPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 DGEX is 18-24 for extreme SEPA Is this what this storm has come to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FUCK JOE BIDEN Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Are people typically so quick to write off a system based on a single model run? Or is it just a residual effect of a snowless winter? They picked the wrong week to quit sniffin' glue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Is this what this storm has come to? 12Z Para GFS drops 2" QPF in SEPA. Is that better for you?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12Z Para GFS drops 2" QPF in SEPA. Is that better for you?? Thank you. lol. Look I am not writing this off. Just significantly more concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Can we bring back the weenie tags and give Wiggum 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12Z Para GFS drops 2" QPF in SEPA. Is that better for you?? Have to admit models are trending south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Thank you. lol. Look I am not writing this off. Just significantly more concerned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z para gfs map...but a significant storm is off the table lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Have to admit models are trending south. See above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Sheena said it may snow depending on the track....riveting indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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