JTA66 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 On the plus side, the Euro was too far south with last weekend's storm. OTOH ... the Euro was alone taking Joaquin OTS. Let's see how much ensemble support it has in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 On the plus side, the Euro was too far south with last weekend's storm. OTOH ... the Euro was alone taking Joaquin OTS. Let's see how much ensemble support it has in a few hours. The Euro also had a blizzard for us last January so it does in fact have its flaws still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Eric Horst also just tweeted he bets it will shift a bit back north as water temps are warm etc....but in his mind this important model (most skllled) shows why snow maps are not real useful this far out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 JMA farther North but also avoids a capture and shoots ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 UKMET looks similar to the Euro. Same basic track. All ens mean now in line to keep this well South of our region just skirting us while remaining progressive. Is it right? Not sure, but the fact this shift has reared its ugly head as soon as the PAC data was better sampled should sound an alarm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Feeling disappointed, but that's b/c I'm a weenie newb. We go through this to-and-fro malarkey EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR. A bad meteorologist lives and dies by each model run, a good meteorologist forecasts through using models as guidance. That's the difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Feeling disappointed, but that's b/c I'm a weenie newb. We go through this to-and-fro malarkey EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR. A bad meteorologist lives and dies by each model run, a good meteorologist forecasts through using models as guidance. That's the difference. Thus why I have been urging caution all week and saying temper expectation until 12Z Wednesday. Been thru this too many times before. If its any saving grace, we still have 3+ days to rectify this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Man I'm depressed. Whole day is ruined bc of the 12z Euro. Quite the life I live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Man I'm depressed. Whole day is ruined bc of the 12z Euro. Quite the life I liveWe still get 3-6"/4-8" on the Euro. Sign me up!I mean, we just had a ridiculously warm December. If someone told me a month ago that we would have a shot at a 3-6"/4-8" event in January, I would have been all over it. We need to just take what we can get while keeping expectations low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hey Ralph I don't have model access how does ecm look day 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 We still get 3-6"/4-8" on the Euro. Sign me up! 0 for Abe ! Hard to believe 00z was 20" and 12z is 0"! But as ST is saying, only a small piece is being sampled, everything will be sampled tonight. Gut feeling is a suppressed storm with south of philly winners. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hey Ralph I don't have model access how does ecm look day 9 Hearing it's a cutter Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 We still get 3-6"/4-8" on the Euro. Sign me up! Lol, after being teased with 13+ to even 18". No thanks send it out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Hey Ralph I don't have model access how does ecm look day 9Front swings thru Wednesday. Low forms along front right on Gulf Coast. Heads due East off FL coast. Threat dead on Euro, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 DR Noooooooooooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 NAVGEM is a complete miss save for some rain showers or flurries. Well, at least the threat tanked completely all in one run rather than stringing us along until Friday night. If no reversal changes by 12z Wednesday, Im sticking a fork in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Funny 12z gefs had 3 ensemble members total wiffs south I had the red flag feeling of unease with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 So, we go from people guaranteeing "at least" 1-2 feet, to "sticking a fork in it?" LOL...ok. You guys need to lighten up with the overly high highs, and overly low lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Lol, after being teased with 13+ to even 18". No thanks send it out to sea. Seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 NAVGEM is a complete miss save for some rain showers or flurries. Well, at least the threat tanked completely all in one run rather than stringing us along until Friday night. If no reversal changes by 12z Wednesday, Im sticking a fork in this one. Or, there's something else going on at play here. How can people throw out all the consistency of the last 2 days, due to ONE model run. It's much smarter to wait and see if the trend continues, or if it reverses itself. Right now, we hang in the balance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 EPS not looking good from what I am hearing. "You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, know when to walk away, and know when to run" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 EPS not looking good from what I am hearing. "You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, know when to walk away, and know when to run" you regurgitate too much form the MA forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 you regurgitate too much form the MA forum.I dont frequent the MA forum, honestly. I think I posted once there earlier today.NYC forum ftw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 NAVGEM is a complete miss save for some rain showers or flurries. Well, at least the threat tanked completely all in one run rather than stringing us along until Friday night. If no reversal changes by 12z Wednesday, Im sticking a fork in this one. You are throwing in the towel because of the NAVGEM? I have never seen anybody else on this forum reference that model except you. It is worthless. Yes the EPS moved south but are still north of the Op. The Euro is still on its own really as far as reliable modeling goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LehighValleyDad Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 When do the 12z Euro ensembles come out? Please tell me the mean is north of the op. Am sick of being fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 You are throwing in the towel because of the NAVGEM? I have never seen anybody else on this forum reference that model except you. It is worthless. Yes the EPS moved south but are still north of the Op. The Euro is still on its own really as far as reliable modeling goes.Youre right, its the navgem. Not because "the most accurate model in the world" is essentially out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Seriously?Yeah, not a fan of moderate snows. I'm an all or nothing kinda guy, I'll mortgage a couple of winters for 15+ storms. All I need is one huge storm and I'm good.Edit: last year's nickel and dime snows sucked for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 So sorry for the novice question, but can someone explain why the Euro took such a dip to the south? Was that set into action when the storm first came onshore or did it happen somewhere in the southeast? Who knows. Model physics. Maybe a met can answer. I know the last event a few days ago the euro did the same thing and then eventually came around closer to the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 EPS not looking good from what I am hearing. "You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em, know when to walk away, and know when to run" You need to relax. 3+ days out and you freak over a shift? I see no reason why a later shift north on the models will not occur in the coming runs over tonight and through tomorrow. We've seen this happen numerous times during Miller A events. Warm coastal waters and climo along with entrance of current system in NW US all point to a massive supressed run as not likely. It will come back IMO. R.E.L.A.X. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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