The Iceman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Highzenburg in the MA forum saying it sucks for Philly.....how does 18-24" suck? he's clueless, absolutely clueless. 16-18 inches on a 10:1 ratio. somehow that sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 114hr Not sure how the depth is done. Really, should be looking at precip instead of any of the derived snow products anyway. USA_APCPIPER_sfc_120.gif Honestly how does this suck? Its like 2" of liquid all snow. This is how PHL posters get a bad name in other forums....sour grapes. Yes its not 30" like DC but that bullseye has been moving from NOVA to CPA to MD.....all over the place. This is going to be big for us in the DE Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z GFS about 17" in Philly and over 2 feet in the western burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 i'd be happy to lock in 18-24...what's the start time looking like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 about 39 hrs of snow per GFS 12z, wow, 21z Friday to 12z Sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 curious to see if Euro stays put with its runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 i'd be happy to lock in 18-24...what's the start time looking like? in regular time...none of this z time that i have to do calculations and whatnot^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 JB mentioned this AM to watch for that heavier QPF to start moving to the NE over time - I think the western burbs from BWI to NYC will be the big winners with this one....but of course all will be winners in a relative manner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z GFS about 17" in Philly and over 2 feet in the western burbs apparently a top 10 snowstorm in philly history "sucks" :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Gotta love that even with a screwed up precip shield we still manage 16-18". I love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 apparently a top 10 snowstorm in philly history "sucks" :lol: It's all relative every hardcore weenie in the area would love to see a 96 repeat, we have been treated to near a dozen fantasy runs showing it and now it certainly looks to be keying in on the DC area for this. Most understand it's over 72hrs and could and will change but enjoy living and dying on every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 apparently a top 10 snowstorm in philly history "sucks" :lol: Seriously! Last week at this time we were just hoping to see some flakes with the arctic front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 JB mentioned this AM to watch for that heavier QPF to start moving to the NE over time - I think the western burbs from BWI to NYC will be the big winners with this one....but of course all will be winners in a relative manner Yep!! It's already on the move NE from earlier runs... With this run's 18", I've got that prestorm "gittery/anxious" feeling for the first time this AM... Great sign‼️‼️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Absolutely beautiful GFS run. No temp issues, lots of wind and heavy snow during the day Saturday, I couldn't ask for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 It's all relative every hardcore weenie in the area would love to see a 96 repeat, we have been treated to near a dozen fantasy runs showing it and now it certainly looks to be keying in on the DC area for this. Most understand it's over 72hrs and could and will change but enjoy living and dying on every run. with the warm ocean temps, I think we see a N jog putting S PA as the jackpot with SEPA/CNJ getting 18-24" especially with how good the jet looks.I expect precip to increase as we get closer due to that. The GFS precip shield just doesn't match 700 mb imo. even if none of what I just said doesn't occur, this is still going to be a monster storm for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Another model giving us 20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Just listening to HM right now, and he's saying there's a second big one coming next week. Is this the exact same set up as Feb 6, 2010 and Feb 10, 2010? I was in college down in DC for those two massive back-to-back ones....I honestly have never seen so much snow with the combination of both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Let's get one big storm first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Dawk 20 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Just listening to HM right now, and he's saying there's a second big one coming next week. Is this the exact same set up as Feb 6, 2010 and Feb 10, 2010? I was in college down in DC for those two massive back-to-back ones....I honestly have never seen so much snow with the combination of both. From what I could see from the 6z GFS yeah looks like another system around the 28th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 apparently a top 10 snowstorm in philly history "sucks" He is leaving ne philly to go 'chase'. Why do u need to chase when the storm with big numbers is literally coming to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 He is leaving ne philly to go 'chase'. Why do u need to chase when the storm with big numbers is literally coming to you? 16" is pedestrian HECS stuff, He is chasing 96 seriously there is nothing wrong with that mountain climbers always look for something bigger to climb, etc. But it's premature to assume where the jackpot will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Well, we knew it was inevitable after models were spitting out 3 feet or more that they would start coming back to reality eventually. These are still HUGE hits 3 days out on the models. You knew it was just a matter of time before people started saying this storm is a fail, is average, etc. Smh...lol. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 16" is pedestrian HECS stuff, He is chasing 96 seriously there is nothing wrong with that mountain climbers always look for something bigger to climb, etc. But it's premature to assume where the jackpot will be.Precisely. No model pinpointed philly as ground zero with 30" in 96 from what i recall. All depends on where the best banding sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fishmn Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 The1996 analog was just invoked on TWC by their mid range guy. I don't know if he was referring to totals or wide spread major impacts though. 1996 is a hard storm to equal in this area. Still the only 30" plus storm I ever witnessed.r I don't think it will happen. Temps were in the teens during most of that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Is there any truth to the 0z ECM having initialization errors I am hearing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Is there any truth to the 0z ECM having initialization errors I am hearing?Yes, the low in the pacific was sampled more accurately on the gfs than the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Could someone tell me if this is correct: An earlier/ further south cutoff would mean the best dynamics are felt further south, and the storm loses its poleward motion earlier. A later/further north cutoff brings better dynamics north, but introduces a greater threat of mixing/rain to the coastal plain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Could someone tell me if this is correct: An earlier/ further south cutoff would mean the best dynamics are felt further south, and the storm loses its poleward motion earlier. A later/further north cutoff brings better dynamics north, but introduces a greater threat of mixing/rain to the coastal plain. True Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Guys im not bashing this storm for us at all Im simply at awe at the dynamics over VA....well see come tomorrow and ill make my decision then. After i chased my first storm i was hooked it is so fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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