mattinpa Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 ECM closes off sooner and further south Heard we still get a big hit here but takes longer to move in. Seems all evolutions so far are still nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Heard we still get a big hit here but takes longer to move in. Seems all evolutions so far are still nice. Many runs and model perturbations to go, insane amounts of snow in DC land this run. Up here the gradient N&W monster is back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 ECM closes off sooner and further south *sigh*, it is another great run, absolute bomb. There is going to be some variance run to run, let it finish out before sounding the alarm bells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 At least the EURO shows 18-21 ;( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Many runs and model perturbations to go, insane amounts of snow in DC land this run. Up here the gradient N&W monster is back. Plenty of time for a tick north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 looks like 18-19 inches for PHL, there is more of a gradient than the previous run, but this is all still noise this far out. The storm signal is unbelievably consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 At least the EURO shows 18-21 ;( What a shame. How can we move on from this devastation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 At least the EURO shows 18-21 ;( at least, lol, only a top 15 all time storm for PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 What a shame. How can we move on from this devastation As in most models aren't showing much for where I am except for the EURO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I feel like I got robbed. After today's 12z GFS, RDG was on top of the world... I hope this is still going to get me more than 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I feel like I got robbed. After today's 12z GFS, RDG was on top of the world... I hope this is still going to get me more than 8". Not really you still are 18" on this south run that is a great HECS number loooong way to go and the jackpot zone will keep moving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I still feel as though the exact bullseye will move around a lot before the storm actually gets here. But i think it's fairly certain now that a MECS is on the way, I've had 1'+ in every model run since Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Not really you still are 18" on this south run that is a great HECS number loooong way to go and the jackpot zone will keep moving I don't care about the jackpot, I care about the gradient. Too close for comfort and it doesn't help the Poconos out much either. Indeed it will keep moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 I don't care about the jackpot, I care about the gradient. Too close for comfort and it doesn't help the Poconos out much either. Indeed it will keep moving. Gradients have killed me in my location since about 2009. For once I'd like to not have to worry about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Treckasec Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Didn't go above 32 on 6z GFS. 16-18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Seems most models are now in the 10-20" range with some 2' lolli's sprinkled in over SE PA. This seems reasonable attm and much more realistic than the 3' totals some models were spitting out. I would take that range any day of the week and twice on Sunday. Of course this could fluctuate depending on how guidance handles the energy once it comes onshore later tonight and tomorrow morning, so Im still not ready to go all-in until 12Z Wednesday, but if someone held a shotgun to my head and asked for my best guess at totals, specifically central Bucks County area, 10-20" would be my answer right at this particular time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LehighValleyDad Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Gradients have killed me in my location since about 2009. For once I'd like to not have to worry about it. Amen to this! .... I would love to see today's 12Z models look like the Euro's 12Z run from Sunday. Everyone would be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Seems most models are now in the 10-20" range with some 2' lolli's sprinkled in over SE PA. This seems reasonable attm and much more realistic than the 3' totals some models were spitting out. I would take that range any day of the week and twice on Sunday. Of course this could fluctuate depending on how guidance handles the energy once it comes onshore later tonight and tomorrow morning, so Im still not ready to go all-in until 12Z Wednesday, but if someone held a shotgun to my head and asked for my best guess at totals, specifically central Bucks County area, 10-20" would be my answer right at this particular time. Yup a good 12-18 storm for just about everyone, slap in the winds and you have a 30" storm equivalent, in theory 30-40" is cool , but deadly and damaging isn't, nor do I want to have the national guard around. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 How does the coast look on 0z Euro? Still mostly rain? Also I have tidal flood concerns with full moon and big low pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 HPC's qpf map is pretty interesting. They think the heaviest precip falls in the eastern half of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 So the #1 analog on CIPS is now the Blizz of 96'. So granted the lows root origin is much different than 96 once it enters the Miss valley going forward is where the comparison starts which was my basis from yesterday stating it wasn't similar. However, I will agree that at 500 mb once it reaches the TN valley it does resemble it a good bit with lots of WAA out ahead of the low pressure center. I am eating crow on that one gents as well as my thinking from a few days ago that this would be more wet than white for our area and I am thrilled to do so! I am ready for a potentially historic storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 LMAO @ 6z navgem! Typical biases at play.....suppressed system, really struggles to come North, closes off too soon and verbatim shows all precip as rain in SEPA even as the ccb skirts the area. LOL! The cheese stands alone. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Perfect example of a poor resolution model struggling with a potent 500mb system: Closes the upper low off early and way south near Mississippi which torches everyone including areas well inland. Highly doubt this solution verifies with little to no support. If this solution actually verified with zero snow, I would give up this hobby altogether :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Perfect example of a poor resolution model struggling with a potent 500mb system: Closes the upper low off early and way south near Mississippi which torches everyone including areas well inland. Highly doubt this solution verifies with little to no support. If this solution actually verified with zero snow, I would give up this hobby altogether :-) Yeah if you look at panel form hr 84 to 90 that's where it falls apart. Don't think the surface low goes from the middle of Alabama to the southern coast of GA like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 19, 2016 Author Share Posted January 19, 2016 Yeah if you look at panel form hr 84 to 90 that's where it falls apart. Don't think the surface low goes from the middle of Alabama to the southern coast of GA like that.It probably wont. But even with warming, this model is suffering from some sort of feedback errors. You dont have a bombing slp like that with a clearly defined ccb falling as plain rain in late January. I mean, I guess under perfect fail conditions it is possibility, but very highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 6z PAR GFS another hugeh it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 6z PAR GFS another hugeh itHearing more qpf for S PA. What are the numbers like for SEPA?EDIT - looks like 1.5"-2.0" area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 12z GFS going to be another big hit for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Highzenburg in the MA forum saying it sucks for Philly.....how does 18-24" suck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 19, 2016 Share Posted January 19, 2016 Highzenburg in the MA forum saying it sucks for Philly.....how does 18-24" suck? Nothing like waking up and reading the 12z GFS play by play in NYC forum sounding like I was getting 6" It's an average 15" in SEPA probably 18" Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.