anthonyweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 2mb stronger and about 100 miles north at hr 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM looks nearly identical at 36.. a TAD further north with precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The NAM has been scary consistent since yesterday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 8:19 PM, LVblizzard said: The NAM has been scary consistent since yesterday afternoon. Pretty much, just some noise as far as I can tell. Overall bowling ball trough is a little broader fwiw, not quite as sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 mod snow tpk onsouth at 39. surface low on NC/VA border at coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 39 hrs - SLP due East of VA/NC border about 40 miles at 994mb. Heavier snows across all of Southern PA. Clear tick East vs 12z due to broader trof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 42 heavy snow PHL and SNJ surface low just east of VA Beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 EPS matches Euro, drier everywhere, about 10 inches for PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 8:22 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: 39 hrs - SLP due East of VA/NC border about 40 miles at 994mb. Heavier snows across all of Southern PA. Clear tick East vs 12z due to broader trof. it does seem to be matching some of the globals in terms of tracking a little more east than originally progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kicking Up A Storm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Can someone arrange the models in order from lightest amount for PHL to highest amount for PHL? It'd help me see that as a visual as we close in on the crucial hours. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 8:24 PM, GD0815 said: it does seem to be matching some of the globals in terms of tracking a little more east than originally progged. Yep, starting to go towards GFS. Lets see if GFS goes towards this solution later. Still feel a blend of the 2 will be most likely outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 45 flood gates open. nearly all of PA under mod snow SEPA and S/CNJ getting raked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 45 - moderate snows SE PA, heavier snows back across central PA. Low looks to be trying to pull ENE.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This is still way north of any of the other models, curious what the final cutoff looks like. Edit--it is still heading east, so there will be a sharp cutoff, but the NAM track verbatim is great for PHL, about the best case scenario at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 996 mb 50 miles East of Southern DelMarVa. Not a very strong slp at all at 45 hrs. Heaviers snows are West of i476 and Southern part of PA. Moderate elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 48 extremely heavy snowfall central and SEPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue sky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 In the last six years...Ralph Wiggum has blossomed into a great poster who I have grown to respect. He has turned his earlier over the top enthusiasm into a well researched model reader. Yes he is like a younger Joe Bastardy. More often than not pointing out all the things that good go right for a big storm. Unlike Joe he acknowledges that bias. For our wonderful Philadelphia forum it's great to have Ralph. His play by play with models, his responses to every poster, the fact that he does not sleep is super. Nobody can predict the weather. But it is nice reading a great lover of weather. Oh.....Red Sky.....Stay away from gun shops and high bridges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 8:28 PM, hazwoper said: 48 extremely heavy snowfall central and SEPA Go ahead....take the rest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 8:29 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Go ahead....take the rest ha, nah I like dualing pianos. my favorite entertainment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 54 NYC subforum passes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 54 hrs - trying to pull out in SE PA, still some heavier CCB bands to the West back in central PA. NYC and Southern NE getting plastered! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It's the NAM for crying out loud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 8:28 PM, blue sky said: In the last six years...Ralph Wiggum has blossomed into a great poster who I have grown to respect. He has turned his earlier over the top enthusiasm into a well researched model reader. Yes he is like a younger Joe Bastardy. More often than not pointing out all the things that good go right for a big storm. Unlike Joe he acknowledges that bias. For our wonderful Philadelphia forum it's great to have Ralph. His play by play with models, his responses to every poster, the fact that he does not sleep is super. Nobody can predict the weather. But it is nice reading a great lover of weather. Oh.....Red Sky.....Stay away from gun shops and high bridges. Hats off to Wiggum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NYC will do better than PHL here because of dry slot. I'm not going to get too worked up about that as of now. Edit--maybe even better than DC. This is why I should know better than to even look at the NAM until 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 QPF snowhole over extreme SE PA (only around a foot lol) otherwise widespread 1.5-2.5' totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Upstate PA gets some love this run. RedSky, this run should make u very happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Dryslot....too far north and east for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 8:35 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Upstate PA gets some love this run. RedSky, this run should make u very happy. Ralph it's the NAM why would it make me happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 a GFS/Nam compromise should work well. lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 FWIW between 48 and 51 hrs, looks like the SLP takes a hard NW turn then shoots ENE after that. Could just be my eyes playing tricks on the tropical tidbits site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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