anthonyweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hearing CMC is south and gives just about nothin to LV & North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 4:31 PM, shemATC said: Now that we are getting closer in time frame it looks that DC will really get a wallop. I personally witnessed the entire city shut down for about 4-5 days to deal with 10 inches of snow. 2'+ would cripple them for who knows how long. The way they handle snow there you'd think they were in Georgia or Louisiana. To hear reports, they were just about crippled by light snow last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bliz299 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 4:25 PM, DonM said: Which direction does it need to trend SOUTH if we down here are to get a significant share. We count too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 4:38 PM, Bliz299 said: SOUTH if we down here are to get a significant share. We count too! Guess that's fair. We have started getting a bit IMBY in regards to where the storm is going. That happens when there are cutoffs everywhere for snow on about 3 sides of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Officialy lowering my expectations to 8-12" MECS criteria in upper SEPA - good luck central and south GGEM has slipped south now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 4:47 PM, RedSky said: Officialy lowering my expectations to 8-12" MECS criteria in upper SEPA - good luck central and south GGEM has slipped south now 1 model 1 run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Ukie is NW. Low exits coast at VA Beach!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 4:48 PM, Bluescat1 said: 1 model 1 run. All guidance outside the NAM has lowered qpf in the northern tier portions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow_ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 4:23 PM, anthonyweather said: Good agreement coming In for Philly -- need to get to that point for ABE not the modeled 5-30" spread i agree, i'm in south whitehall and talk about being on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 4:47 PM, RedSky said: Officialy lowering my expectations to 8-12" MECS criteria in upper SEPA - good luck central and south GGEM has slipped south now Has anyone confirmed how much the GGEM had for SE PA? Good to see it alone with going south, but also strange for that model to show the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlsnowman24 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 UKMET is pure porn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 4:52 PM, shadow_ said: i agree, i'm in south whitehall and talk about being on the edge. I'm in north Whitehall lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 4:53 PM, mattinpa said: Has anyone confirmed how much the GGEM had for SE PA? Good to see it alone with going south, but also strange for that model to show the least. It's around a foot for Philly area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 4:53 PM, mattinpa said: Has anyone confirmed how much the GGEM had for SE PA? Good to see it alone with going south, but also strange for that model to show the least. tidbits is stuck at hr 30. Anyone have a GGEM snow map from 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 UKMET ticked north looks very good for central and southern portions of the forum, Probably .75-1" for the northeners Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 EURO usually follows whatever the UKIE is cooking @ this range so if I were to guess I expect EURO to tick N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 4:59 PM, Highzenberg said: EURO usually follows whatever the UKIE is cooking @ this range so if I were to guess I expect EURO to tick N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 GGEM is not South. It is now very much inline with other guidance. It adjusted the qpf field by tightening it but H5 and slp position suggest if anything, it ticked north with those features. The models are actually converging rather nicely on a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 5:02 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: GGEM is not South. It is now very much inline with other guidance. It adjusted the qpf field by tightening it but H5 and slp position suggest if anything, it ticked north with those features. The models are actually converging rather nicely on a solution. It doesn't matter. The cut off from the confluence knocks down the percip like a brick wall. It can only reach so far. Ideally, for a more northen solution, you'd want this thing to slow down, and allow that H and confluence to get out of the way as much as possible. But thats looking less and less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 4:56 PM, RedSky said: UKMET ticked north looks very good for central and southern portions of the forum, Probably .75-1" for the northeners It shows around 2' for PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 5:07 PM, hazwoper said: It shows around 2' for PHL yup just a nasty gradient north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 5:02 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: GGEM is not South. It is now very much inline with other guidance. It adjusted the qpf field by tightening it but H5 and slp position suggest if anything, it ticked north with those features. The models are actually converging rather nicely on a solution. It also has what appears to be a weak CCB... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looking at UKMET meteograms for PHL, it's about 2" QPF, maybe a little more, looks to be all snow. Excellent run for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 5:02 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: GGEM is not South. It is now very much inline with other guidance. It adjusted the qpf field by tightening it but H5 and slp position suggest if anything, it ticked north with those features. The models are actually converging rather nicely on a solution. It's either south or extremely condensed. 0z GGEM gave just north of philly 20+ inches. Now it gives 11, and the cut off dropped from Easton down to Doylestown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 5:16 PM, shemATC said: It's either south or extremely condensed. 0z GGEM gave just north of philly 20+ inches. Now it gives 11, and the cut off dropped from Easton down to Doylestown.Slp track is very close. I think the qpf consolidated and shifted due to the ggem missing the capture....barely. I think its merely noise but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Forky from the NYC forum is encouraged about the ukmet ticking north, he is one to follow. Always on point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 5:20 PM, Violentweatherfan said: Forky from the NYC forum is encouraged about the ukmet ticking north, he is one to follow. Always on point.Forky calls it as it is. He gets heat for it, but he is a good met. Very respectable guy in that subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 On 1/21/2016 at 5:21 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Forky calls it as it is. He gets heat for it, but he is a good met. Very respectable guy in that subforum. Guys/ladies. Philly area is going to get smoked. Silly at this point to think it will be a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.