Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Within 5 days of the potential event now. We have almost unanimous agreement from all OP models and ENS means for a potent coastal storm to possibly affect our region. EURO OP is the extreme on one end with 24"+ in SEPA while the CMC is on the other side with marginal temps yielding mainly a cold rain (0Z Sunday run). Turbulent times ahead but at least we have something with legs to track! Temper your expectations with this one....there is still alot that could go wrong regardless of how beautiful most guidance looks right now. Five days is an eternity in terms of weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 6Z GEFS are looking good....really nice signal. 6Z NAVGEM is a coastal hugger right on the DelMarVa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Since this looks like it might be a legitimate threat, can one of the mods pin this thread so it stays up top and is easy to find? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Since this looks like it might be is a legitimate threat, can one of the mods pin this thread so it stays up top and is easy to find? Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 (knocks on wood) I think a thread is worthy because practically EVERY model shows a storm. Now, where it tracks we are a long time away from figuring that out. I will say that the energy associated with our storm comes onshore Wednesday so Tuesday Night/Wed AM we'll start to get a good feel. I am in a state of shock though right now. We are a few days away from cancelling winter and basically writing this year off as one of the worst winters in a long time lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 * in before the lock Way too early for this thread, Ralph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 * in before the lock Way too early for this thread, Ralph I disagree....100% of the models have a storm....This forum is dead who cares anyway...Most of us are going to be discussing this event from the 12z runs anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 * in before the lock Way too early for this thread, Ralph Disagree. Most unanimous threat of the season so far on virtually all guidance. Mods can do what they need with the thread, I wont be butthurt, but a thread seems worthy at this point. Its 111-120ish hours away, not 200+ hour fantasy range. And when DT lets the BIG DOG WOOF out as he did earlier, the threat has legs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Oh, I am not saying it isn't legit, just that we are actually over 5 days out from on set here and it can go bad quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Oh, I am not saying it isn't legit, just that we are actually over 5 days out from on set here and it can go bad quickly. Bad or good, even if it is a rainstorm it still is a storm...I understand what you're saying, but it isn't a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Can we stay on-topic and knock off the discussion about whether or not this thread should be locked please? The fact most OTS solutions are off the table now given the current El Nino (progressive pattern) should make this threat even more credible/likely. Couple this with a neg nao flipping to neutral/positive and a pna trying to stay positive, we are in a decent spot at this range. Watch the low South of Alaska ....we need that to continue pumping the ridge out west, even if transient. Timing is everything. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Can we stay on-topic and knock off the discussion about whether or not this thread should be locked please? The fact most OTS solutions are off the table now given the current El Nino (progressive pattern) should make this threat even more credible/likely. Couple this with a neg nao flipping to neutral/positive and a pna trying to stay positive, we are in a decent spot at this range. Watch the low South of Alaska ....we need that to continue pumping the ridge out west, even if transient. Timing is everything. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Ralph, If this turns out as modeled now, I have to give you a lot of credit for sticking to your feeling that we had a good good chance of a major event as the noa/ao switched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 So many runs to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stemwinder Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Ralph, If this turns out as modeled now, I have to give you a lot of credit for sticking to your feeling that we had a good good chance of a major event as the noa/ao switched. Amen to that, whatever really happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I'm torn between wanting a more modest southern solution that favors coast and cities and wanting the big coast hugger that destroys ski country. We have 4 trips plus a family trip to Vermont in next 40 days. Interior is overdue for big ticket storm. I would likely start as snow then rain most of the qpf just to end as snow or dry slot. With buoy 44009 at 49f I see a more tucked in warmer solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 So many runs to go. Too many. The old saying about being in the bullseye 5 days out may be textbook here. "The most accurate model in the world" has us directly in the cross-hairs at exactly 5 days. What could possibly go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 For those of you who have not been watching weather models for years to be prepared for an upcoming run of the GFS....probably in the Tuesday timeframe that will have it staying to the south and east of the area - if the EURO stays with it then that combo of GFS suppressed and EURO going with the storm means it's coming. I will be stunned if the GFS does not waver at least for 24 hours this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I agree Cheso. EURO will begin to lock into a solution and GFS will have a goofy run and then slowly trend back to the EURO solution. Happens like every winter storm. hey the 12z NAM looks really good @ 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 12Z GFS OP thru 114 is set to deliver the goods. Ridge amped up out west in response to LP South of Alaska. HP dipping into the Plains with extended lobe to our North in a good spot. Storm in the Tenn Valley redeveloping offshore. Next few frames will "probably" bring smiles....let's see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Couple this with a neg nao flipping to neutral/positive and a pna trying to stay positive, we are in a decent spot at this range. Watch the low South of Alaska ....we need that to continue pumping the ridge out west, even if transient. Timing is everything. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk I had been in the banter thread early early this am looking up some stuff and missed that you had created this thread. To add - the AO is forecast to go neutral/slightly positive and the MJO is forecast to be near inactive but possibly heading into phase 1 - which all seem to help intensify the borderline nature, uncertainty, and thread-the-needle possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Solid hit on the 12Z GFS. Not the extreme Euro PARA solution (did we expect that to verify anyway?), but a really solid hit for our area. Still snowing lightly beyond this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Solid hit on the 12Z GFS. Not the extreme Euro PARA solution (did we expect that to verify anyway?), but a really solid hit for our area. Agreed. Trough not as deep and low pressure a little weaker and a little further east than the 6Z, but all in all a good run for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 Agreed. Trough not as deep and low pressure a little weaker and a little further east than the 6Z, but all in all a good run for our area. Yep. Fluctuations should be expected at this range, for better or for worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 CMC is a monster fwiw. Appears to be some mixing issues at cursory glance but beast of a storm and slow mover! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Anything can happen, but I think it's game on for something this upcoming weekend. It's just a matter of track and timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 I hope the 12Z euro holds serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 12z ECM maintains the BIG hit for our forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Author Share Posted January 17, 2016 HOLY FLIPPIN EURO....WOOF !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 euro has about 39hrs of snow, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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