UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Early on the NMM model but it has widespread 30-40" totals in VA. Only runs to 48hrs. NMM heads due west at HR 47/48, hugs coast hard.. You see that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 SI is over 12 inches on the snowmaps lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NMM heads due west at HR 47/48, hugs coast hard.. You see that? Didn't run the model just looked at the totals. It really won't be useful for us until tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS is encouraging as well. 1" LE up to NYC now. What a forecasting nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 why the big dip in precip in NJ vs same latitude in PA? Take Rt 78.... 17 inches on PA border, yet much less in central NJ? Isn't the storm off the coast so why the dip like that? Is that because the GFS is warm and its snowing less snow amounts but the LE's are the same? convective blob nonsense. the big takeaway is that this is a much better run for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Uptown cutting back and easing off the severity now... SO THROWING OUT THE OUTLIERS...EXPECT SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE SATURDAY...WITH SLEET MIXING IN AT TIMES OVER ROUGHLY THE S 1/2 OF THE CWA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOULD BE ALL SNOW EVERYWHERE...THEN PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF...FROM SW TO NE STARTING MID- LATE SATURDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...EXPECT 6-10 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS LONG ISLAND/NYC/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NE NJ...5-8 INCHES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NE NJ AND SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER COUNTY...AND 2-5 INCHES ELSEWHERE. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN ULTIMATE DISTRIBUTION IN QPF...SNOW AMOUNTS COULD CHANGE QUITE A BIT EITHER UP OR DOWNWARD (THOUGH MORE LIKELY DOWN THAN UP). AS A RESULT HAVE MADE NO CHANGES TO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. IF TRENDS HOLDS...MOST OF THE WINTER STORM WATCH AREA IN THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY WILL END UP EITHER BEING CONVERTED TO AN ADVISORY OR THE WATCH BEING CANCELLED. WITH THIS IDEA IN MIND...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE EXTENDING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES INTO S CT AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looking at the zoomed in high res on the 18z GFS...Warwick, NY is 5" and Newburgh is less than an inch. That's where your gradient is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Those who said take 2/5/10 and shove it north about 30-40 miles may be right on the money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looking at the zoomed in high res on the 18z GFS...Warwick, NY is 5" and Newburgh is less than an inch. That's where your gradient is. Nice. Maybe add 2 inches for my area. Figure add 2 inches of snow every 5 miles you go south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Upton has good PR reasons to be conservative on this. I'd say NYC is looking at equal chances of a thump or bust. This storm is happening on a Saturday morning (Juno was on a weekday). There is no reason for them to hype the snow. An unexpectedly heavy amount of snow won't be nearly as disruptive on a weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The eps also had similar qpf th the 18z gfs right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Upton has good PR reasons to be conservative on this. I'd say NYC is looking at equal chances of a 6" (or less), 12", and 18+" storm. This storm is happening on a Saturday morning (Juno was on a weekday). There is no reason for them to hype the snow. An unexpectedly heavy amount of snow won't be nearly as disruptive on a weekend. It's been a remarkably well-forecast storm, it just so happens that the 75 mile-wide band where the northern edge of the heavy snow falls happens to be draped over the most densely populated 75 miles in the country. Bad luck for the forecasters more than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GEM-LAM total snowfall through 18Z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Take the nam cut the amounts in half for winter events more times than not and it will pretty much be accurate just an obs of over 20 years on the boards.This is a broad statement but hey it's the weather , may a giant lollipop encompass the entire area from virginia to maine and everyone is in complete bliss.i'll be fishing see ya Mulen! How's life buddy? Nice to "see" you. Sorry for the banter post but I felt compelled to put this where the intended recipient might see it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It's been a remarkably well-forecast storm, it just so happens that the 75 mile-wide band where the northern edge of the heavy snow falls happens to be draped over the most densely populated 75 miles in the country. Bad luck for the forecasters more than anything else.Yeah, they really are between a rock and a hard place here. Such a small difference in track has HUGE discrepancy in snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GEM-LAM total snowfall through 18Z Saturday. gem_lam_total_snowfall.jpg I think that model is out of usable range. Am I wrong here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Those who said take 2/5/10 and shove it north about 30-40 miles may be right on the money. Works for me. I was Philly in 2/5/10 and we got absolutely raked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think that model is out of usable range. Am I wrong here? It is. But I always love the GEM-LAM. 24 hrs out the GEM-LAM is usually deadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GEM-LAM total snowfall through 18Z Saturday. gem_lam_total_snowfall.jpg Am I missing something? That's a 48hr plot that says it is valid on 12z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Am I missing something? That's a 48hr plot that says it is valid on 12z Saturday. Correct, 12Z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Question: I know many pros have said the 6Z/18Z model runs are less accurate, because they don't have as much data ingested into them, since the weather balloons usually only go up for the 0Z and 12Z runs. However, TWC did a report on that yesterday and said they were moving to sending up the ballons 4 times per day through the storm, which presumably would make these off hour runs just as "accurate" as the 0Z/12Z runs. Anyone care to comment on that? Is there any other significant difference other than inclusion of balloon data? Given how critical accurate initial conditions are to deterministic, but chaotic, systems like the weather, this would seem to be an important point to confirm. Would make me "trust" the recent uptick in snow from the 18Z GFS more, for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nick Gregory is calling for 7-12 inches for NYC and 5 boroughs with 4-7 towards eastern LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Question: I know many pros have said the 6Z/18Z model runs are less accurate, because they don't have as much data ingested into them, since the weather balloons usually only go up for the 0Z and 12Z runs. However, TWC did a report on that yesterday and said they were moving to sending up the ballons 4 times per day through the storm, which presumably would make these off hour runs just as "accurate" as the 0Z/12Z runs. Anyone care to comment on that? Is there any other significant difference other than inclusion of balloon data? Given how critical accurate initial conditions are to deterministic, but chaotic, systems like the weather, this would seem to be an important point to confirm. Would make me "trust" the recent uptick in snow from the 18Z GFS more, for example.Storms like this with this potential, normally lead to new data every six hours for every run. What needs to be considered, also, is that, to the best of my knowledge, the off runs also use slightly different algorithms, which can yield different outcomes as well. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Question: I know many pros have said the 6Z/18Z model runs are less accurate, because they don't have as much data ingested into them, since the weather balloons usually only go up for the 0Z and 12Z runs. However, TWC did a report on that yesterday and said they were moving to sending up the ballons 4 times per day through the storm, which presumably would make these off hour runs just as "accurate" as the 0Z/12Z runs. Anyone care to comment on that? Is there any other significant difference other than inclusion of balloon data? Given how critical accurate initial conditions are to deterministic, but chaotic, systems like the weather, this would seem to be an important point to confirm. Would make me "trust" the recent uptick in snow from the 18Z GFS more, for example. They still aren't as reliable even in that scenario because not every single upper air NWS site is going to release a balloon. The US model off hour runs are a bit better than they used to be. The RGEM is horrible on off hour runs frequently so I'm always cautious with it on those unless inside 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It is. But I always love the GEM-LAM. 24 hrs out the GEM-LAM is usually deadly. Thanks. I'll start paying attention to the GEM-LAM tomorrow afternoon and RGEM tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LnbWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Gradients being posted in some forecasts are insane. Like southern Bergen county at 6" and Staten Island at 10"+. That's 15 miles or probably less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nick Gregory is calling for 7-12 inches for NYC and 5 boroughs with 4-7 towards eastern LI. lee goldberg likes 6 inches for nyc.. lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 gefs mean is great 1.00 + to city .75 to hpn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 gefs mean is great 1.00 + to city .75 to hpn Great. Over an inch for the south shore of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 gefs mean is great 1.00 + to city .75 to hpn Don't mean to homer... But I can't get to them right now, how are they for SWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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