IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 4K NAM is still a foot in Central Park and up to 18" on Long Island. It looks most similar to the NAM 12z. It's completely different than the 12k version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 gfs looks a bit north @30-33hr @h5, not sure if it's just noise or not yet - anybody want to take over pbp? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CiBill Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 FWIW, GFS is slightly north of the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 heights slightly better through 27hrs, heavy precip a "touch" bit north, but nothing major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Cutoff is going to be there again... but just south of it heavier rates. Imo, just looking more and more similar to 2/6/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 it's a few ticks north of 12z, doesn't seem quite as progressive either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Heavy snow in NYC from hrs 54-57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Take the nam cut the amounts in half for winter events more times than not and it will pretty much be accurate just an obs of over 20 years on the boards.This is a broad statement but hey it's the weather , may a giant lollipop encompass the entire area from virginia to maine and everyone is in complete bliss.i'll be fishing see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 gfs did nudge north with initial band and has a nice 2nd deform band over nyc and north jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Good improvement with a good deform band setting up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmcrae66 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Take the nam cut the amounts in half for winter events more times than not and it will pretty much be accurate just an obs of over 20 years on the boards.This is a broad statement but hey it's the weather , may a giant lollipop encompass the entire area from virginia to maine and everyone is in complete bliss.i'll be fishing see ya Its where they're spit out that is in question.-every model is spitting those insane amounts out-just further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Good WAA precip rates make it to about Union County. Then the deform band takes over. heavy snow hr 54 nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 .75 QPF for NYC on the GFS. Nice improvement with more QPF towards Staten Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 UKMET/GFS root root Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 18z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The heavy snow on the RGEM is pretty much confined to S NJ and points South Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 At hour 48 it's further north along coast.pressure also lower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS had a MAJOR shift north. Gets 1.75" QPF to Allentown, PA, regardless of weird precip blobs this was a huge shift towards the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Early on the NMM model but it has widespread 30-40" totals in VA. Only runs to 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NYC : 0.75 with more to the south towards Brooklyn and SI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS had a MAJOR shift north. Gets 1.75" QPF to Allentown, PA, regardless of weird precip blobs this was a huge shift towards the NAM. And I don't see a reason for that to not extend eastward and fill into Jersey . Yes, it keeps getting closer to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 And I don't see a reason for that to not extend eastward and fill into Jersey . Yes, it keeps getting closer to the NAM. Agreed, random precip blobs aside, this still gets 1.0" QPF to about Rt.78/80 in NJ, but due west of us, 1.5" or so. Very nice move and the wettest the model has been in many runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS had a MAJOR shift north. Gets 1.75" QPF to Allentown, PA, regardless of weird precip blobs this was a huge shift towards the NAM. What did 12z have for them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 why the big dip in precip in NJ vs same latitude in PA? Take Rt 78.... 17 inches on PA border, yet much less in central NJ? Isn't the storm off the coast so why the dip like that?Is that because the GFS is warm and its snowing less snow amounts but the LE's are the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 1" + gets to union county. north of there .75" and then it drops off accordingly. Middlesex is 1.25 " +. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Agreed, random precip blobs aside, this still gets 1.0" QPF to about Rt.78/80 in NJ, but due west of us, 1.5" or so. Very nice move and the wettest the model has been in many runs. I basically just asked the same thing.... i mean i know not to take for verbatum but is the LE different too? If so why the heavier amounts in PA off 78 vs NJ? Esp when its a coastal storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 What did 12z have for them? ~0.5" to 1.5" in QPF in 1 run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 why the big dip in precip in NJ vs same latitude in PA? Take Rt 78.... 17 inches on PA border, yet much less in central NJ? Isn't the storm off the coast so why the dip like that? Is that because the GFS is warm and its snowing less snow amounts but the LE's are the same? They're closer to the confluence is my guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Purely for entertainment purposes only. Here are some text outputs for the 18z NAM. MMU - 29.4" on 2.47"LE LGA - 26.2" on 2.13"LE HPN - 31.0" on 2.45"LE SWF - 39.1" on 2.66"LE TTN - 17.3" on 1.69"LE ISP - 27.7" on 2.41"LE EWR - 26.1" on 2.30"LE BDR - 29.0" on 2.39"LE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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