allgame830 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think you certainly have to give the NAM some weight here, the "its the NAM" so ignore idea should be put on the back burner a bit since it is now in its better range. Would I buy it wholeheartedly, no, but some weight should be given to what it is showing. IMO Yes.... less than 48 hours now.. NOT 72+ anymore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acvyse Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think you certainly have to give the NAM some weight here, the "its the NAM" so ignore idea should be put on the back burner a bit since it is now in its better range. Would I buy it wholeheartedly, no but some weight should be given to what it is showing. IMO If all the models tend to agree on this view, but the NAM is showing this view, why not discount it? It is certainly feasible to suggest the NAM has biases and corrections that need adjusting. Maybe it doesn't do well on this storm, but will do well on a future storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Good luck folks more to be revealed i will be there in spirit, sold the snow blower last spring and hung up the snow goggles .the NAM is like a wet dream i'll leave it at that .see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Major discrepancies between nam and 4K nam.... 4K is not even close to the 12k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Major discrepancies between nam and 4K nam.... 4K is not even close to the 12k What's the difference between the two? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What's the difference between the two? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk 4 is slightly better on the northern precip, but takes the low east just like GFS and euro, nowhere near a LHV jackpot... Still a good hit for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYStorm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Craig Allen's afternoon update follows. I can't believe all the people that still hug the NAM. Even he tells why he thinks it's an outlier: 2 days ago, I posted the phrase "we should know more as the storm approaches" and sternly questioned such a statement. It seems to never be true. Once you need to get down to the finer details, it's apparent you almost need to wait til just before the event begins. Pat ourselves on the back for knowing a storm was developing a week ago and those blips of energy in the Pacific have done what maps have foretold...develop a storm. More than that, we are left with many questions in our backyard. It seems to be a given that some part of the mid Atlantic coast is going to get buried, most notably from PHL to BWI to DC to VA. That was pegged. But for us on the fringe, the difference between a couple of inches to sweep away versus using the snowblower for the first time, remains a mystery, 36 hours before the event. Here's where we stand: First, I think its best we discard the last few runs of the putrid 'nam12k' model. It has fueled hysteria on the internet with it's 25-40 inch snow totals for our area. Crazy numbers like that may happen to our south but there is no atmospheric support for its output up here. It's own better-gridded and smarter sibling 'nam4k' is even in total disagreement with it. The gfs and it's ensembles, gem and it's ensembles and euro have all trended south with the low and a stronger push of colder, drier air from the north. That has been key all along. I entioned it here in previous posts and many colleague and I have been chatting amongst ourselves about the sharp northern cutoff of significant snow. The models are now picking up on this. Indeed, I just this second looked at the new nam12k afternoon run and it seems to be waking up and is falling in line with the others. What I may do on CBS New York wcbs/880 thios afternoon is keep the snow totals but re-define the area -or- I just might very well lower them by about a third.Northern suburbs may be able to simply go about their business with just some extra caution for a couple inches of snow. NYC and vicinity is still likely to need to call out the plows.The most impactful snowfall, measure in feet will be from TTN to PHL-BWI-DC and VA. Can we still toss around the B-word? Absolutely because blizzard has nothing to do with amount of snow. It refers to prolonged white out conditions which still may come true even with just moderate snow falling, but driven by 40-50 knot winds. And as for tidal flooding, the slightly more south & east course of the storm could help in lowering the storm surge a little. It's likely to still be 2 to 3 feet above normal rather than 4 to 5 for the Sound and south shore waters but the Jersey shore, especially from the Sandy Hook on south could achieve the highest surge.Coastal inundation is still likely in typical flood-prone communities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Classic IR look to it4K NAM hugs coast with high qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Blizzard watch extended for New York Metro but accumilations decreased from 8 to 12 down to 6 to 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Per NWS New York 50% chance of a foot for NYC and 20% for 18" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grossout Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Time to take the NAM seriously, it is in its range. Check out my article in today's Gothamist: http://gothamist.com/2016/01/21/mitch_snow_weather_king.php Mitch it's Charlie. Congrats on this fantastic piece about you. It is well- deserved and overdue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasperk99 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I am a complete novice but Can someone please explain the surface low placement from 60 to 63 hours on the 18Z Nam. It looks like it takes that secondary low that it created on most models and moves it back to the original low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 To my untrained eye, based on the water vapor imagery, it appears the beginnings of the lp in north east Texas is on a trajectory for northern Georgia; from there who knows. But it seems as though it isn't digging down into Louisiana at this point. Is this fairly accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 18Z rpm crushes the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Dude, it's over for big amounts. 4-8" NYC would be my call and has been since yesterday with more to the south and less to the north and west.With all due respect, you have two professional Mets (at least) on here who are saying otherwise. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acvyse Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Upton lowered snow accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It's insane how different the Hi Res nam is to the 12k...unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 18Z rpm crushes the area rpm is a horrible model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 18Z rpm crushes the area lol the EPS and RGEM are .5 at KNYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Time to take the NAM seriously, it is in its range. Check out my article in today's Gothamist: http://gothamist.com/2016/01/21/mitch_snow_weather_king.php nice article! i think the NAM is out of its range beyond initialization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 lol the EPS and RGEM are .5 at KNYC Okay? That doesnt mean that they can't change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 4km NAM does have a foot in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Anyone have 18z rgem at 54hrs. Looks slower than NAM. Harder to tell with b+w maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Jesus, people are reporting that the RGEM is south based basically on hearsay, and it hasn't even run out to the relevant time yet. Oh, brother. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Can anyone do an RGEM synopsis please? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Don't worry about the RGEM till tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Okay? That doesnt mean that they can't change. Anthony your only hope is the UKMET and the GFS/GEFS . You should have yours eyes gouged out for looking at the NAM . Watch the Euro tonight at 42 , if jumps the low out again odds are its not CF I am not saying the UKIE or the GEFS can`t verify but the NAM is a POS. IGNORE IT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 LHV might actually JP this run The deform band from hell is now going to pivot right over the entire area Even though we just jack potted on the NAM I refuse to take it seriously.. If the GFS bumps north then I might give it some consideration but man what an emotional roller coaster lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 4K NAM is still a foot in Central Park and up to 18" on Long Island. It looks most similar to the NAM 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 18z RGEM resembles 2/6/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.