Mitchel Volk Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Time to take the NAM seriously, it is in its range. Check out my article in today's Gothamist: http://gothamist.com/2016/01/21/mitch_snow_weather_king.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 ripping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 A 30"+ max is showing up near SWF If this verified....I may cry, after all this heartache lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Not even a dusting in Boston and 2-3 feet from DC to NYC is not something you see very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This would be a historical victory for the NAM if it ended up correct.... what is this 5 runs in a row now? Over 2 feet in the LHV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Time to take the NAM seriously, it is in its range. Check out my article in today's Gothamist: http://gothamist.com/2016/01/21/mitch_snow_weather_king.php Nice, congrats! Would you adjust your forecast to the Sanitation Dept based on this NAM run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 A 30"+ max is showing up near SWF Porn for us up this way. I'm still not taking the bait. Run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Time to take the NAM seriously, it is in its range. Check out my article in today's Gothamist: http://gothamist.com/2016/01/21/mitch_snow_weather_king.php I guess the only thing I would take away from this is perhaps the NAM is hinting that the other models might start to shift north during the next 24 hours??? Btw nice article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
b3mcginnis Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 High hopes for NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Time to take the NAM seriously, it is in its range. Check out my article in today's Gothamist: http://gothamist.com/2016/01/21/mitch_snow_weather_king.php Very nice profile. The City is certainly better on account of your work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LIsnowBubble Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 ...don't take precip seriously.. You must consider the track and basis of same...very reminiscent of Feb '1978 how South of Montauk it does a small loop..... does not mean it will happen.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If only the NAM was going to be right, can you imagine if it winds up being? I think this run is a little to extreme but overall it still likes the further north theme before pulling east. I still like 12" for the NYC metro as an average, a little less further north a little more further south. There are setups where the NAM does well but they are few and far between. As I've said a few times today 2/6/10 and the nasty overrunning event last winter that missed us and destroyed SNE it never waivered from 72 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nice, congrats! Would you adjust your forecast to the Sanitation Dept based on this NAM run? I will adjust the odds, but my update will come after the 18Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Time to take the NAM seriously, it is in its range. Check out my article in today's Gothamist: http://gothamist.com/2016/01/21/mitch_snow_weather_king.php So you are the guy all the OT is dependent upon in DSNY? Lol. Nice job. I know the photographer, jessica, who took your photo very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The only thing that gives me pause, is the nam has been consistent bringing heavy precip in and around NYC, and further north... AND the normally reliable SREFS are VERY wet for NYC and NW areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Upton snow map unchanged as of 343... Hats off to them for not changing anything yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 looks like another night i will have to stay up for the gfs and the euro again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I just think with those warm waters being warmer than normal that this storm will be deeper and want to move more NE vs E or ENE. Any thoughts? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 When looking at the water vapor loop, where is the confluence coming from that we should be worried about? Is it the feature over North east Maine, that wants to press south west, or is it the small feature near Minnesota/Ontario that is coming east bound? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 When looking at the water vapor loop, where is the confluence coming from that we should be worried about? Is it the feature over North east Maine, that wants to press south west, or is it the small feature near Minnesota/Ontario that is coming east bound? The feature pushing east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I just think with those warm waters being warmer than normal that this storm will be deeper and want to move more NE vs E or ENE. Any thoughts? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk I read that a mild winter and warm ocean waters had a big impact during the blizzard of feb 2006. But I am no met to weigh on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 When looking at the water vapor loop, where is the confluence coming from that we should be worried about? Is it the feature over North east Maine, that wants to press south west, or is it the small feature near Minnesota/Ontario that is coming east bound? IMO the confluence is being overrated for this storm for this region, not so much for SNE but definitely here. We are being screwed more by the low closing off early than anything else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acvyse Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 There is so much heresay in this topic it boggles my mind. What happened to just reading the physics for what it is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Lol @ the amount of people just tossing the NAM aside. And if it showed a Euro solution the same people would say "its the NAM, its wrong". So which one is it? Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Time to take the NAM seriously, it is in its range. Check out my article in today's Gothamist: http://gothamist.com/2016/01/21/mitch_snow_weather_king.php That's awesome! Great read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 IMO the confluence is being overrated for this storm for this region, not so much for SNE but definitely here. We are being screwed more by the low closing off early than anything else I guess if we are still in the same boat tomorrow... then we will have to wait and see when the LOW closes off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 There are setups where the NAM does well but they are few and far between. As I've said a few times today 2/6/10 and the nasty overrunning event last winter that missed us and destroyed SNE it never waivered from 72 hours out I think you certainly have to give the NAM some weight here, the "its the NAM" so ignore idea should be put on the back burner a bit since it is now in its better range. Would I buy it wholeheartedly, no, but some weight should be given to what it is showing. IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 There is so much heresay in this topic it boggles my mind. What happened to just reading the physics for what it is?What do you think about this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Time to take the NAM seriously, it is in its range. Check out my article in today's Gothamist: http://gothamist.com/2016/01/21/mitch_snow_weather_king.php Many people's obituaries aren't as flattering. Congrats, and thanks for your work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 In 30 short hours the storm will be knocking on DCs door. You can trust the Nam from under 36 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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