redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Srefs bumped a good bit NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Guess u haven't seen the latest sref? Sent from my XT603 using Tapatalk 2 SREFs are often biased because of overdone ARW models in the mix. I have to agree with some now that mentioning 12" for NYC is too generous now, and 5-8" might be a better call. Not far from more, but also not far from virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 LOL 15z SREF are even wetter than 09z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 LOL 15z SREF are even wetter than 09z.Even if it's ARW induced, it's concerning to see change from a forecast standpoint, you'd figure it go slightly south, not north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 LOL 15z SREF are even wetter than 09z. If the NAM doesn't come far south with the northern edge by tomorrow AM I will start to believe it may be onto something. Just the fact it nailed 2/6/10 is in the back of my mind. Its QPF is another story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If the NAM doesn't come far south with the northern edge by tomorrow AM I will start to believe it may be onto something. Just the fact it nailed 2/6/10 is in the back of my mind. Its QPF is another story It's been remarkably consistent even going in to its usable range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It's all going to depend on where that wall of snow stops. Euro low placement was close to the ukmet. Just something was causing the qpf to weaken as it went north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It's all going to depend on where that wall of snow stops. Euro low placement was close to the ukmet. Just something was causing the qpf to weaken as it went north. It's higher resolution can likely better detect the confluence/dry air that is pushing southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Agree on the confluence. The northern extent of the precip on models may be too generous. Dry air will try to eat at the oncoming snow as much as possible. It will be frustrating watching the snow hang out around DC and Philly for hours, but eventually models still give enough to eventually move a period of decent snow into NYC up to around I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Agree on the confluence. The northern extent of the precip on models may be too generous. Dry air will try to eat at the oncoming snow as much as possible. It will be frustrating watching the snow hang out around DC and Philly for hours, but eventually models still give enough to eventually move a period of decent snow into NYC up to around I-80. This is still a risky situation by NYC because a 30-40 mile shift which is highly possible 48-54 hours out is tremendous in this instance. I think it's unlikely NYC gets shutout but I sure could see a scenario where downtown sees only 2-3 inches. Couple that with the fact mesoscale bands form in odd places, we have seen those so called dry air CSI bands form before well north of where anyone thought big snow would happen and also seen models be too far north and south with the north edge of a storm so this forecast sucks and I'm glad I'm on vacation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It's all going to depend on where that wall of snow stops. Euro low placement was close to the ukmet. Just something was causing the qpf to weaken as it went north.The euro has super dry air at 850hpa look at the relative humidity at that level. Especially just north of the city with the limited precip shield/qpf, will be in real trouble. The dry air just going to eat away at it for hours and it's going to be a virga fest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 12z EPS mean isn't bad at all. Might even be a little better than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycemt123 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The euro has super dry air at 850hpa look at the relative humidity at that level. Especially just north of the city with the limited precip shield/qpf, will be in real trouble. The dry air just going to eat away at it for hours and it's going to be a virga festWhat is a "virga fest?"Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM beleive itnor not looks N early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 One a somewhat brighter note, the 15z SREF mean for the more stable NMB members ticked up to 0.81" from the 0.75" 9z figure. Essentially, the guidance may be honing in on a useful solution as the event draws closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What is a "virga fest?" Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk Virga is precipitation that evaporates before it reaches the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 12z EPS mean isn't bad at all. Might even be a little better than the OP. It looks like a general 4-8 across the area with more to the sw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What is a "virga fest?" Sent from my XT1080 using Tapatalk many years ago there was a snowstorm that hit southern new jersey i think atlantic city got 14 inches of snow.. and nyc got nothing... a arctic high over southern canada kept the air so dry in the city.. even though above in the atmosphere it was snowing all day.. it never reached the ground..that was a virga fest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The NAM looks more amped up and heights are higher along the coast LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 EPS MEAN HPN 4 KNYC 5 JFK 6 KISP 8 KBLM 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It has a lot to do with the amplitude of the base of the trough. Yesterday a lot of the modeling was flattening everything out. So far the NAM is coming in sharper which is building heights quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 EPS MEAN HPN 2 KNYC 5 JFK 6 KISP 8 KBLM 12 2 inches for White Plains? im guessing the NWS is about to drop amounts north and west of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I really think that has a lot to do with the amplitude of the base of the trough. Yesterday a lot of the modeling was flattening everything out. So far the NAM is coming in sharper which is building heights quite a bit. We are getting into the NAM's more reliable zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 2 inches for White Plains? im guessing the NWS is about to drop amounts north and west of the city That should have read 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The trough is much more neutrally tilted this run as opposed to more positive which is a result from the higher amplitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The center of the 500mb low jumped from just North of Atlanta on the 12z run to near Nashville at the same time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Virga into Philly around 00z so I would expect snow there by 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Can I ask this: How has each individual model performed so far with respect to the main actors onstage? How have the GFS, EURO, etc. performed with respect to the positioning and strength of each element of the setup as compared to where everything is actually situated now? Could that give us a hint as to how much weight we should give each of their depictions of the ultimate outcome? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nice summary - link? Anyway, Sandy's flooding was not that bad for most of Atlantic County and all of Cape May County and DE/MD, since they were on the left side (a bit weaker side and with winds coming from the N to NW, roughly, given the counterclockwise circulation) of Sandy when it made landfall around AC, which is why the Dec 92 and forecast tides for this storm are similar to Sandy's for points from AC southward. Look how much bigger the tides were for Sandy relative to 92/this storm for points north of AC - hence the historic flooding. Sorry, that graphic was posted by Dan Skeldon, local weather met in the south jersey area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The precip shield is jumping well North at 09z from it's 12z position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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