RUMG11 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 That's a little outlandish if you ask me. We're talking about maybe 12 hours of storm force winds. Sandy was a major hurricane down in the Caribbean and over a 1000 miles wide by the time it made it up here. Throwing names out like Sandy is just irresponsible. Could some areas experience some major flooding? Sure, but nowhere to the extent of Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Maybe not, but someone will catch that outter band. Great Barrington pulling a 32 out the rabbit's arse is not a common occurrence - I know it's happened before, but I wouldn't bank on it. 4-8 NYC Metro north to south would be my call right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 :weenie: I salute you. Refer above ^^ . These are the expected tidal surges. Check Cape May and Atlantic Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Wow. The RPM looks impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Everyone near NYC needs to temper their expectations to 3"-6"/4"-8" and take it and run. If models shift north, great. If not, then 4"-8" is still a nice snowfall. Get over the fact models had much more at hour 78+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Surge guidance for the entire NJ coast has gotten more optimistic over the last 24 hours. The prediction right now is for no worse than 5' above MSL during the 2 high tide cycles Saturday night / Sunday morning. Source? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If only the base of the trough was sharper like in previous runs. It would slow everything down just enough to bring everything North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU4Real Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Source? http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn®ion=ne&datum=msl&list=&map=48-72&type=both&stn=njsand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dhaulagiri1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Wow. The RPM looks impressive. Except precisely over the 5 boroughs and NE NJ, but of course I'd take 1.5 in LE in a heartbeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Wow. The RPM looks impressive. The RPM is also impressively useless. Next run it could shift 100 miles south. That's the model that kept printing out 30" snow amounts for NYC during Nemo. We all know how that turned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=stn®ion=ne&datum=msl&list=&map=48-72&type=both&stn=njsand Thank you! Wasn't being facetious. Generally interested. Have family down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If only the base of the trough was sharper like in previous runs. It would slow everything down just enough to bring everything North. The positive tilted nature of the trough doesn't help either. It's progressive and headed right out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 T-minus 60 minutes until the NAM has everyone reconsidering things....again. its like a ping pong match over here :-) Agree with the poster that said temper expectations, take what you can get. We are just entering Nam decent range, srefs will become more useful, and the rgem also coming into range. Almost time to put more weight on the latter vs the globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Everyone near NYC needs to temper their expectations to 3"-6"/4"-8" and take it and run. If models shift north, great. If not, then 4"-8" is still a nice snowfall. Get over the fact models had much more at hour 78+. Tell that to Anthony , he still thinks the NAM will verify . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Wow. The RPM looks impressive. Ha, I call BS on that depiction. 2" QPF just south of Boston? Nothing else even close. Maybe it'll verify closer for you guys. I certainly wish you luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Look how much things have changed at H5 since 48 hours ago. disgusting how this crapped the bed for SNE. I am not confident N of central jersey and it seems that it won't have that "stall" near SE VA that could really bring totals even higher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 12z JMA We can wish. Pretty crazy it has similar QPF up here as DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 We can wish. Pretty crazy it has similar QPF up here as DC It's the JMA. I consider it about the same skill-wise as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Why are you guys not even considering the NAM, RGEM, UKIE? NAM been pretty consistent with a huge amount of snowfall from DC to NYC. Unless this run changes a lot, which I doubt, I doubt its going to change at all that much. Not really the GFS, EUROs wheelhouse anymore... Snow starts tomo for some... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Ha, I call BS on that depiction. 2" QPF just south of Boston? Nothing else even close. Maybe it'll verify closer for you guys. I certainly wish you luck. The RPM model is largely based on the ARW. As noted earlier in this thread, the ARW members often greatly inflate qpf and skew the SREF mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This thing jogging north is NOT the issue, I wish people would stop saying that...it WILL NOT come north, IF and only IF, the confluence does not weaken, the double barrel low, drags the storm east to follow the most convection, that needs to not happen as well... There's a lot of factors other than the Low "jogging north". And IF those other factors happen, which is doubtful this late, then we could see the tighter gradient expand north and the storm ride the coast a bit better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Understood. So, obviously the odds are very stacked against us. Unfortunately. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Understood. So, obviously the odds are very stacked against us. Unfortunately. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk I still think NYC sees a foot or more, my opinion... However north of there, I can honestly say... No freaking clue... Rockland county could be watching Virga while city dumps, or they could be dumping while Orange County virgas... It's a crap shoot IMO at this point... I'm fairly confident however by 12-18z tomorrow we will know what all our fates are in regard to totals.. Roughly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Why can't we all just be happy with a nice 3-6 inch snowfall?!. Those large to totals are not happening anymore. Move on Because this was built up as possibly one of the biggest storms ever. When '83 and '96 are compared to this almost a week ago and it turns into 3-6 inches that is awful and extremely disappointing. 3-6 inches is nice when its predicted like that, but when 1-2ft numbers are thrown around and everyone is amazed all the models were in agreement 3-5 days ago this is a huge letdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I still think NYC sees a foot or more, my opinion... However north of there, I can honestly say... No freaking clue... Rockland county could be watching Virga while city dumps, or they could be dumping while Orange County virgas... It's a crap shoot IMO at this point... I'm fairly confident however by 12-18z tomorrow we will know what all our fates are in regard to totals.. Roughly I know I've said it before... but the probability of 1' of snow in NYC has dropped considerably since the models first began latching onto the idea of a quick exit stage right. Sure, SI could hang a 10 and you might get close ... but I think forecasting a foot at this stage flies in the face of the evidence we have on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 15z SREF jumped N a bit with total precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Sref still over an inch of qpf for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think a big problem in this day and age is that snowfall clown maps are thrown around at leads of 96+ hours which sets the expectations. That said, the upper level evolution earlier this week looked amazing for a huge storm - just didn't pan out... this is why 1-2' storms are rarities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think a big problem in this day and age is that snowfall clown maps are thrown around at leads of 96+ hours which sets the expectations. That said, the upper level evolution earlier this week looked amazing for a huge storm - just didn't pan out... this is why 1-2' storms are rarities. except DC, where 2' has been locked in on every model run since the 4th of july. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nice summary - link? Anyway, Sandy's flooding was not that bad for most of Atlantic County and all of Cape May County and DE/MD, since they were on the left side (a bit weaker side and with winds coming from the N to NW, roughly, given the counterclockwise circulation) of Sandy when it made landfall around AC, which is why the Dec 92 and forecast tides for this storm are similar to Sandy's for points from AC southward. Look how much bigger the tides were for Sandy relative to 92/this storm for points north of AC - hence the historic flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.