IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Ahh, no. Actually better. QPF is actually very similar for most of the area. It's a little better for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What i would take away from this run is that it didn't get worse….if anything a bit better. We still are 36 hrs away from this storm so a lot can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 At 18z Saturday the mid-level jet is screaming over SNJ and the Delmarva and six hours later it's near the 40/70 benchmark. Seems we're losing some of our blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What i would take away from this run is that it didn't get worse….if anything a bit better. We still are 36 hrs away from this storm so a lot can change. Exactly, I would call this run marginally better. And it's nothing like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Honestly dude, unless you see a major jump, don't give yourself a nosebleed over precise qpf outputs. Just watch the RAD tmw night into Saturday. Someone who doesn't expect much will get smoked. often, there is a poorly modeled heavy band right on the northern or Northwestern edge of the shield....seen it many times on these big storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Speaking specifically about the coast, unless something really changes you should be fine. The driest models still give you a warning criteria snowfall. For the interior, we're down 2 runs in the bottom of the ninth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Exactly, I would call this run marginally better. And it's nothing like the NAM. How do u figure it's "better" for the interior.. Looks near identical to 00z...anyone north of NYC is next to nothing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 often, there is a poorly modeled heavy band right on the northern or Northwestern edge of the shield....seen it many times on these big storms. I'm pumped for it.....can't wait to see who gets a surprise, early 18" valentine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What i would take away from this run is that it didn't get worse….if anything a bit better. We still are 36 hrs away from this storm so a lot can change. 48 hrs almost, since this initialized with roughly 7 am data... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 How do u figure it's "better" for the interior.. Looks near identical to 00z...anyone north of NYC is next to nothing? Correct 0z EURO KMMU .2 HPN.2 KNYC .5 EWR .6 JFK .8 KBLM 1.4 12z EURO KMMU.2 HPN .2 KNYC. .5 EWR .6 JFK .8 KBLM 1.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Speaking specifically about the coast, unless something really changes you should be fine. The driest models still give you a warning criteria snowfall. For the interior, we're down 2 runs in the bottom of the ninth. I know this is the NYC Metro sub, but I'm specifically concerned about Southern NJ, especially the coasts of Cape May and Atlantic counties. The flooding is going to be Sandy-esque, with a major snow storm and blizzard winds. Its going to be a mess down there. Wouldn't be surprised if evac's are issued for the barrier islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 How do u figure it's "better" for the interior.. Looks near identical to 00z...anyone north of NYC is next to nothing? The precip fields crept further North. That didn't necessarily lead to much higher numbers but it's certainly better than if they had gone the opposite direction. We're 36 hours or so out. At some point, a slight tick here or there is the most you can expect. Of course in this rare circumstance, a tick in either direction can mean the difference between a lot of snow and cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Models are converging on a tight snowfall gradient from about I-80 near Paterson, NJ to the Tappan Zee for this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The precip fields crept further North. That didn't necessarily lead to much higher numbers but it's certainly better than if they had gone the opposite direction. We're 36 hours or so out. At some point, a slight tick here or there is the most you can expect. Of course in this rare circumstance, a tick in either direction can mean the difference between a lot of snow and cirrus. Did you look at the 850s? Lol.. The air is so dry up here it doesn't matter how far the precip field ticks.. It's falling as Virga... Ticks don't help the interior.. We would need a major shift, aka no double barrel low, less confluence, a slower and weaker s/w and a stronger ULL, with better heights, and a more coastal tuck track... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I know this is the NYC Metro sub, but I'm specifically concerned about Southern NJ, especially the coasts of Cape May and Atlantic counties. The flooding is going to be Sandy-esque, with a major snow storm and blizzard winds. Its going to be a mess down there. Wouldn't be surprised if evac's are issued for the barrier islands. That's a little outlandish if you ask me. We're talking about maybe 12 hours of storm force winds. Sandy was a major hurricane down in the Caribbean and over a 1000 miles wide by the time it made it up here. Throwing names out like Sandy is just irresponsible. Could some areas experience some major flooding? Sure, but nowhere to the extent of Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I know this is the NYC Metro sub, but I'm specifically concerned about Southern NJ, especially the coasts of Cape May and Atlantic counties. The flooding is going to be Sandy-esque, with a major snow storm and blizzard winds. Its going to be a mess down there. Wouldn't be surprised if evac's are issued for the barrier islands. WRONG!! This will not be Sandy-esque anywhere, as the NWS has said repeatedly. Sandy was 3-4 feet worse than anything seen before or this storm, at its worst. Doesn't mean there won't be moderate to maybe even major flooding, but not historic flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike1984 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What's the RPM model? Twitter saying it's a big hit...and reliable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 anybody have any reason why the EURO and UKMET are sooo different?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU4Real Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Surge guidance for the entire NJ coast has gotten more optimistic over the last 24 hours. The prediction right now is for no worse than 5' above MSL during the 2 high tide cycles Saturday night / Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Models are converging on a tight snowfall gradient from about I-80 near Paterson, NJ to the Tappan Zee for this... I still think this eventually comes just far enough North to spare most of the area of heartbreak. Maybe about 50-75 miles further North than the cutoff for 2/6/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looking at the water vapor imagery it appears the ULL is mid/east Kansas with a surface low forming at the North-east portion of Texas. Does that match up well with the where the current models are seeing this? Radar looks like it's starting to explode in Louisiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 12z UKMET totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 WRONG!! This will not be Sandy-esque anywhere, as the NWS has said repeatedly. Sandy was 3-4 feet worse than anything seen before or this storm, at its worst. Doesn't mean there won't be moderate to maybe even major flooding, but not historic flooding. last I checked I saw 3-4 ft rise. Sandy at my shore house was between 12-13 water rise. Big difference. I have to look at the current data but doubt this will even come close to Dec 92. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Does anyone remember the noreaster after Sandy? This flooding will be equal to that basically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 12z JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'm pumped for it.....can't wait to see who gets an early 18" valentine. Nah... don't think anyone at KNYC's latitude will break double digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Look how much things have changed at H5 since 48 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I know this is the NYC Metro sub, but I'm specifically concerned about Southern NJ, especially the coasts of Cape May and Atlantic counties. The flooding is going to be Sandy-esque, with a major snow storm and blizzard winds. Its going to be a mess down there. Wouldn't be surprised if evac's are issued for the barrier islands. :weenie: I salute you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nah... don't think anyone at KNYC's latitude will break double digits. Maybe not, but someone will catch that outter band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 12Z RGEM ensemble meteogram for KNYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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