dmb8021 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 what have the models been showing today with regards to the wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Everyone on the coast gets at least 15 inches of snow. Ok and? I said NYC gets 12-18... Parts of jersey see 25+ what's the issue here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 there's no point in getting detailed this early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 what have the models been showing today with regards to the wind?It's a full fledged blizzard if this verified. High wind criteria for some areas. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Ok and? I said NYC gets 12-18... Parts of jersey see 25+ what's the issue here? What issue? I'm just posting what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Still 4+ days away... Gonna see many shifts and changes I'm sure.. See what tomorrow brings.. Night all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 there's no point in getting detailed this early Are you getting ready to bite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 if tomorrow's 0z runs show it, yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 if tomorrow's 0z runs show it, yesInteresting. I look forward to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro looks more probable than the models that slam areas much further N&W. I still fear that it may continue to shift further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Central and southern jersey, eastern Long Island to the cape, see 25+ inches, NYC is 12-18, north is 4-6+ less the further north you go Ask yourself this question, has there ever been a storm with that type of distribution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Ask yourself this question, has there ever been a storm with that type of distribution? February, 1983 was close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 WPC raised their probabilities in their latest experimental winter weather outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GFS took a slight step towards the euro, not nearly as strong either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 6z GFS is a thing of beauty. 980mb at the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 6z GFS is a thing of beauty. 980mb at the BM. Eh... I'm on the fringe up here, unfortunately it's not what the city guys wanna here, but a coastal hugger is what I'm rooting for lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Eh... I'm on the fringe up here, unfortunately it's not what the city guys wanna here, but a coastal hugger is what I'm rooting for lol Verbatim you do very well on 6z gfs even up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Verbatim you do very well on 6z gfs even up there sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Verbatim you do very well on 6z gfs even up there Yeah but the euro has a very sharp cutoff and the gfs ensembles are further se than the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Ask yourself this question, has there ever been a storm with that type of distribution?Yes. The first similar one to come to mind is December 09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Folks, temper your expectations with this one. Yes, it is easy to get excited seeing agreement among guidance for over a foot of snow + widespread. BUT, the bullseye has about a 10% chance at best of remaining directly over your backyard 4.5 days out. Until we have a better consensus, I would take shifts with a grain of salt unless ALL guidance does something extreme. Come 12Z wed/0z Thurs would be a good time to consider trends, once the sw is better sampled. Until then, some models are still adjusting North and yes, some are adjusting South. It is inevitable yet no need for concern or panic at this time. Sorry if this needs to be moved mods. I will back my post with data: Best model? No. But being it is normally progressive, so this actually makes me feel a little better believe it or not at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Upton is not on board yet. THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE WITH THE FORECAST IN THE FRIDAY THROUGHNEXT WEEKEND IS ONLY ABOUT 30 PERCENT. THIS IS BECAUSESUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS MAY VARY WITH THE TIMING...TRACK...ANDMAGNITUDE OF THE LOW. THE VARIABILITY HAS BEEN SEEN COMPARINGCURRENT 00Z MODEL RUNS TO ONES INITIALIZED 24 HOURS BEFORE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Upton is not on board yet. Here is thing: they are hedging bets which is understandble BUT they are contradicting themselves as the official forcast- not discussion sys snow Likely Fri night and saturday 60% thus exactly opposite of the hesitant discussion. They have to adjust, cant have both numbers out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 0z Euro Ensemble mean is a good hit but the control run is even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Ask yourself this question, has there ever been a storm with that type of distribution? Several... 12/09/09 comes to mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 0z Euro Ensemble mean is a good hit but the control run is even better. Haven't looked.. A good hit for who? For the city or everyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Ask yourself this question, has there ever been a storm with that type of distribution? Yes. Also during a strong El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYStorm Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Folks, temper your expectations with this one. Yes, it is easy to get excited seeing agreement among guidance for over a foot of snow + widespread. BUT, the bullseye has about a 10% chance at best of remaining directly over your backyard 4.5 days out. Until we have a better consensus, I would take shifts with a grain of salt unless ALL guidance does something extreme. Come 12Z wed/0z Thurs would be a good time to consider trends, once the sw is better sampled. Until then, some models are still adjusting North and yes, some are adjusting South. It is inevitable yet no need for concern or panic at this time. Sorry if this needs to be moved mods. I will back my post with data: Best model? No. But being it is normally progressive, so this actually makes me feel a little better believe it or not at this range. Sensible post. Don't know why the mods should be concerned with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Haven't looked.. A good hit for who? For the city or everyone? Coast and inland for both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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