jm1220 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Where I was, Sandy's surge was about 8 feet and the storm tide 10-11 feet because of the surge at high tide. Irene was about 3-4 feet lower. This looks to be less than Irene, but it would help a lot of the worst hit at low tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 As Bryan Norcross explained so well after Sandy, the NWS and others continue to do a horrible job communicating coastal flooding data and risks in a way that the general public can understand. Even in this disco, they switch between "positive departures" and "surge" without defining exactly what they mean. Also, any time they talk about coastal flooding, now, they ought to include the much greater departures seen for Sandy, so that people know the flooding that might come, even if "major" is nowhere near Sandy levels, which were generally 3-4 feet greater than Irene or March 1962 or other great storms in the past (or this one, even in the worst case). http://www.wunderground.com/blog/bnorcross/unraveling-the-sandy-stormsurge-forecast Great post. I agree. You can throw in December 92, Halloween 91, March 93, Gloria and Donna in the major flooding 4-6 feet above mean high water. Sandy was extreme in the 7-9 foot range. I expect street flooding Saturday evening in places like Freeport and the west end of long beach. Should be interesting with snow on the ground. Structure flooding is very unlikely. Beach erosion should only be moderate on Long Island but can be severe locally on the jersey shore. Right now beaches are in great shape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 euro has started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 the ukmet coming north is a big deal IMO. it's the second best model Quite the statement. I take it you feel the king is #1. Do you still feel, in this relatively short range that the Euro & Ukie combo would be best? For example NAM has had 4 consistent runs, do we totally discount or blend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yeah, I'm fairly knowledgable but this product would be completely cryptic to any layperson. They need to put these out in plain language. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 At 0z the CFI may have been between hour 66 - 72 , keep an eye on Hour 54 and see if it does not jump the low E at 60 . If we tuck , we are in business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Good luck, guys. I'm really pulling for you.....even Forky, almost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Good luck, guys. I'm really pulling for you.....even Forky, almost. Me too. I just hope the flooding isn't too bad. I actually don't mind that it will be sunny and 70 where I am when this is happening. Rather that than 20 and cloudy while a 3"/hour snow band sits 30 miles away from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 ULL looks better so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 As far as flooding goes. I live on a canal in Copiague. Any clue what to expect compared with Sandy? I'm assuming I'll be alright but, getting a bit worried. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Me too. I just hope the flooding isn't too bad. I actually don't mind that it will be sunny and 70 where I am when this is happening. Rather that than 20 and cloudy while a 3"/hour snow band sits 30 miles away from me. I think 12-18" for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think 12-18" for NYC.Yeah? Think the banding gets far enough north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yeah? Think the banding gets far enough north? My gut feeling. I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 hr 51 light snow up to nyc mod up to ttn would love to see the low tucked in more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Heights aren't as high this run, no Bueno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think 12-18" for NYC.Upton's maps are almost comical for this event. I'm thinking right now that this will be 2/6/10 with a slightly less sharp gradient and 30-40 miles north from where that stopped. So Monmouth County would be Manhattan this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If you were hoping for a major shift on the Euro, not gonna happen. Very similar to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 hr 54 you have two lows again one chasing the convection and its moving east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Heights aren't as high this run, no Bueno Just remember....some of the best bands often set up right at the edge of the precip shield. This happened in the Berkshires during Jan 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NNJ and EPA actually do a little better this run with the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The trough never cuts off so you don't get the stall along the coast. Progressive flow. You can see what you want about the double barreled low, the trough never stops moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NNJ and EPA actually do a little better this run with the CCB. we get the left overs from the ccb not a horrible run. Even the ct shore line gets 2-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Most of the area around 0.75" this run, a little less NW and a little more SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nyc QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 we get the left overs from the ccb not a horrible run. Even the ct shore line gets 2-3 It's not as bad as what I thought it was going to show. Verbatim this is a 4-6" or 6-8" storm for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 close to .75 for nyc most of long island and north central nj .75+ .25+ nw nj into lower hudson valley across to bdr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If you were hoping for a major shift on the Euro, not gonna happen. Very similar to 00z. Ahh, no. Actually better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nyc QPF? Honestly dude, unless you see a major jump, don't give yourself a nosebleed over precise qpf outputs. Just watch the RAD tmw night into Saturday. Someone who doesn't expect much will get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks locked and loaded for about 0.8-0.9 QPF and 8-12".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 As far as flooding goes. I live on a canal in Copiague. Any clue what to expect compared with Sandy? I'm assuming I'll be alright but, getting a bit worried. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk This isn't close to Sandy. If Sandy was the only storm that caused problems for you, you are fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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