sferic Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What is range of QPF for KJFK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 can someone post a full QPF map for the UKMET.. thanks in advance... I would like to see how far north the pecip gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 KNYC UKMET 1 GEFS .75 -1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Upton is really throwing darts at a wall for NYC, lol. Their minimum is 2", max is 20", and "most likely" is 11". The spread may have something to do with the spread among the numerous models and ensembles. The GGEM is near 3" for the City and the NAM is in its own orbit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Gefs have improved for nyc close to 1.00 Some of the best news thus far. Really could use the Euros support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 the ukmet coming north is a big deal IMO. it's the second best model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 My JMA isn't updated, can someone post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Can any of the "Pros that blow him clear out of the water" comment on his take that Nor'easters typically slide north a little?I'm curious to hear more as to the truth of his comment and/or why the models are trending so hard east. It trends east because of the confluence to the north. Why would it run into a brick wall of cold, dry air when it could skirt to the east in the warmer oceans? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 the ukmet coming north is a big deal IMO. it's the second best model It could, but it did head fake a bit on last years storm too and then dropped back east again although as a whole it did perform very well in SNE and eastern LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It trends east because of the confluence to the north. Why would it run into a brick wall of cold, dry air when it could skirt to the east in the warmer oceans? Why are you making it sound like the storm is sentient? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 the ukmet coming north is a big deal IMO. it's the second best model I definitely agree... I hear it's around 1 for NYC. What does it look like a little further north around HPN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Jan 21 12z Summary QPF NYC/NJ area (i-78 to i-195) Less North to more south of course. SREF: 1.25- 1.55 NAM: 1.75 - 2.05 GFS: 0.55 - 1.45 GEFS: 0.85 - 1.45 RGEM: GGEM: 0.40 - 0.80 UKMET: 0.85 - 1.50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 can someone post a full QPF map for the UKMET.. thanks in advance... I would like to see how far north the pecip gets Through 72 hours (1/24 12z): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 My JMA isn't updated, can someone post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Posting Upton's coastal flood discussion. Right around 5 feet of surge is where real problems can start to happen. If it gets to that point hopefully its around low tide like they mention: .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MULTIPLE EPISODES OFCOASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE SAT INTO SUN.THE TIDES OF PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUE TO BE SAT MORNING ANDPARTICULARLY SAT EVE/NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL GALE TO STORM FORCENE WINDS PILING WATER ALONG THE COAST.POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 1/2 TO 2 FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINORCOASTAL FLOODING AND 2 1/4 TO 3 FT FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODINGWITH THE SAT MORNING HIGH TIDE. PREFERENCE IS TO TAKE AN AVERAGE OFBIAS CORRECTED ESTOFS/ETSS AND STEVENS SURGE GUIDANCE...WEIGHTEDTOWARDS THE HIGHER ESTOFS. ETSS AND STEVENS GUIDANCES APPEAR TO BETOO LOW BASED ON 040-050 NE WINDS RAMPING UP TO GALE THROUGH THETIME OF HIGH TIDE. BASED ON THESE EARLY NUMBERS WIDESPREAD MINOR TOLOCALIZED MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELYSCENARIO...WITH BETWEEN 1 1/2 TO 3 FT OF SURGE.FOR THE SAT EVENING HIGH TIDE...POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 2 TO 21/2 FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...AND 3 TO 4 FT FORMODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. MODEL GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT ANDCOLLABORATED ON NE GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS UNTIL THE TIME OF HIGHTIDE WITH WINDS/SURGE POSSIBLY PEAKING DURING LOW TIDE SAT AFTERNOONAT 3 TO 5 FT. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH THE WINDS BEGIN TO BACK AS WEAPPROACH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AND HOW MUCH THE SURGE FALLS. THETENDENCY IS FOR MODELS TO UNDERESTIMATE THE NORTHWARD BACKING OFWINDS DURING INTENSE NOR`EASTERS TRACKING TO THE SE OF LI...WHICHIN TURN ACTS TO REDUCE SURGE ALONG THE TRI-STATE AREA. ONCE AGAINAT THIS POINT...PREFERENCE IS TO TAKE AN AVERAGE OF BIAS CORRECTEDESTOFS/ETSS AND STEVENS SURGE GUIDANCE...WEIGHTED TOWARDS THEHIGHER ESTOFS. BASED ON THESE EARLY NUMBERS...POTENTIAL CONTINUESFOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING...WITH BETWEEN 2 1/2 TO 41/4 FT OF SURGE AT HIGH TIDE. THIS SURGE RANGE MATCHES FAIRLYWELL WITH SIMILAR COASTAL STORM ANALOGS...AND THE RANGE SHOULD BEABLE TO BE NARROWED AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITHSTORM EVOLUTION.THE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL BEALONG WESTERN/CENTRAL HALF OF LI SOUND...SOUTHERN BAYS OF WESTERNLI AND NYC...AND THE TRADITIONALLY VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF NYHARBOR...NEWARK BAYS...AND LOWER REACHES OF HACKENSACK ANDPASSAIC. NOTE...LOCALIZED MAJOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THESOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF LI...WHERE ONLY 3 1/2 FT OR SURGE ISNEEDED FOR MAJOR FLOOD IMPACTS IN THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES.ELSEWHERE IT WOULD TAKE 5 TO 6 FT OF SURGE TO REACH MAJOR FLOODINGLEVELS...WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Why are you making it sound like the storm is sentient? Lol you know what I meant. Theres not enough fuel to sustain itself in that direction because of the confluence and dry air. Or maybe it is sentient and messing with us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Through 60 hours (1/24 0z): Thanks Don. That seems to be light years better. For comparison purposes; how does it compare to the previous run? Seems to be a big jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Wow, UKMET not far from the NAM honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Thanks Don. That seems to be light years better. For comparison purposes; how does it compare to the previous run? Seems to be a big jump. Quick correction: My map was through 72 hours, not 60. The 12z run was an improvement. I'll post the changed maps momentarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Remember we are getting into the range that the GFS tends to be more accurate than the ECMWF. It nailed Juno during this time frame and it also picked up the chance of light snow last weekend before the NAM and ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnnyDop Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Wow, UKMET not far from the NAM honestly. How is that like the NAM's 20" print? 25-30 cm on the Ukie is equal to 9.8 - 11.8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 How is that like the NAM's 20" print? 25-30 cm on the Ukie is equal to 9.8 - 11.8". Actually you are under 30-40 and a 10 mile shift north equals NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Does anyone have UKMET through all hours? that one above is through 60? I can't find it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 UKMET comparison... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 How is that like the NAM's 20" print? 25-30 cm on the Ukie is equal to 9.8 - 11.8". Talking about the track and setup not qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Does anyone have UKMET through all hours? that one above is through 60? I can't find it The one I posted is through 72 hours. I inadvertently typed "60 hours." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 If you average all the model QPF at this range should give you a pretty good idea at 1.5 - 2 days out. Looks like 0.8 - 1.0 for NYC N/C NJ and LI. Less north and more south. With 11/12:1 ratios that should be about 9-13". And that is what the NWS is going with...makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Remember we are getting into the range that the GFS tends to be more accurate than the ECMWF. It nailed Juno during this time frame and it also picked up the chance of light snow last weekend before the NAM and ECMWF. The GFS run today looked the most normal of its last 3-4 by far. It didn't do bizarre things with the precip shield and had less craziness on temps in the mid levels. The GFS was better with Juno because it was more a northern stream system, this one isn't so I don't know. The Euro though hasn't impressed me this winter so I'm less inclined to trust it than I once was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Pretty cool new snow probabilities from Upton. Looks like Long Beach has a 41% chance at 12" or more of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Posting Upton's coastal flood discussion. Right around 5 feet of surge is where real problems can start to happen. If it gets to that point hopefully its around low tide like they mention: .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A POWERFUL NOR`EASTER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MULTIPLE EPISODES OF COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE SAT INTO SUN. THE TIDES OF PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUE TO BE SAT MORNING AND PARTICULARLY SAT EVE/NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL GALE TO STORM FORCE NE WINDS PILING WATER ALONG THE COAST. POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 1/2 TO 2 FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND 2 1/4 TO 3 FT FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE SAT MORNING HIGH TIDE. PREFERENCE IS TO TAKE AN AVERAGE OF BIAS CORRECTED ESTOFS/ETSS AND STEVENS SURGE GUIDANCE...WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE HIGHER ESTOFS. ETSS AND STEVENS GUIDANCES APPEAR TO BE TOO LOW BASED ON 040-050 NE WINDS RAMPING UP TO GALE THROUGH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE. BASED ON THESE EARLY NUMBERS WIDESPREAD MINOR TO LOCALIZED MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO...WITH BETWEEN 1 1/2 TO 3 FT OF SURGE. FOR THE SAT EVENING HIGH TIDE...POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 2 TO 2 1/2 FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING...AND 3 TO 4 FT FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. MODEL GUIDANCE FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND COLLABORATED ON NE GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS UNTIL THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE WITH WINDS/SURGE POSSIBLY PEAKING DURING LOW TIDE SAT AFTERNOON AT 3 TO 5 FT. THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH THE WINDS BEGIN TO BACK AS WE APPROACH THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE AND HOW MUCH THE SURGE FALLS. THE TENDENCY IS FOR MODELS TO UNDERESTIMATE THE NORTHWARD BACKING OF WINDS DURING INTENSE NOR`EASTERS TRACKING TO THE SE OF LI...WHICH IN TURN ACTS TO REDUCE SURGE ALONG THE TRI-STATE AREA. ONCE AGAIN AT THIS POINT...PREFERENCE IS TO TAKE AN AVERAGE OF BIAS CORRECTED ESTOFS/ETSS AND STEVENS SURGE GUIDANCE...WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE HIGHER ESTOFS. BASED ON THESE EARLY NUMBERS...POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR WIDESPREAD MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING...WITH BETWEEN 2 1/2 TO 4 1/4 FT OF SURGE AT HIGH TIDE. THIS SURGE RANGE MATCHES FAIRLY WELL WITH SIMILAR COASTAL STORM ANALOGS...AND THE RANGE SHOULD BE ABLE TO BE NARROWED AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH STORM EVOLUTION. THE MOST VULNERABLE AREAS TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE ALONG WESTERN/CENTRAL HALF OF LI SOUND...SOUTHERN BAYS OF WESTERN LI AND NYC...AND THE TRADITIONALLY VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF NY HARBOR...NEWARK BAYS...AND LOWER REACHES OF HACKENSACK AND PASSAIC. NOTE...LOCALIZED MAJOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS OF LI...WHERE ONLY 3 1/2 FT OR SURGE IS NEEDED FOR MAJOR FLOOD IMPACTS IN THE MOST VULNERABLE LOCALES. ELSEWHERE IT WOULD TAKE 5 TO 6 FT OF SURGE TO REACH MAJOR FLOODING LEVELS...WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED. As Bryan Norcross explained so well after Sandy, the NWS and others continue to do a horrible job communicating coastal flooding data and risks in a way that the general public can understand. Even in this disco, they switch between "positive departures" and "surge" without defining exactly what they mean. Also, any time they talk about coastal flooding, now, they ought to include the much greater departures seen for Sandy, so that people know the flooding that might come, even if "major" is nowhere near Sandy levels, which were generally 3-4 feet greater than Irene or March 1962 or other great storms in the past (or this one, even in the worst case). http://www.wunderground.com/blog/bnorcross/unraveling-the-sandy-stormsurge-forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.