SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 UKMET is around 10-12 in NYC on a quick rough look, it's definitely better than the GFS and GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Why is it risky? 1. It is a "watch" 2. Do you understand the definition of "blizzard"? I am assuming no since you mentioned 4-8" in your attack on NWS call for blizzard watch. 1. Isn't that in their charter and the definition of a watch - to alert the public (not weather board readers) to the possibility of an occurrence like this, though conditions may still change, possibly to the upgrade to a warning, or downgrade. 2. Aren't actual snowfall accumulations beside the point when it comes to a blizzard? The term gets conflated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 12Z GFS QPF gradient in NYC itself is 1.1" forecast in southern Staten Island, 0.4" forecast in the Northern Bronx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Moves due East from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 For NYC, GGEM is about .4"-.5" Navgem is about .65"-.75" Ukmet is about .75"-1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 How often does Mount Holly update their maps? My area they say still has a 53% chance of 12-18 inches, and 27% chance for 18+...i'll take that 53% chance for 12+ also wondering what models they are basing that off of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 For NYC, GGEM is about .4"-.5" Navgem is about .65"-.75" Ukmet is about .75"-1" Kinda like to see the UKMET like that... seems to be much further North and West.... hopefully the EURO follow suit!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 UKMET is around 10-12 in NYC on a quick rough look, it's definitely better than the GFS and GGEM 26mm of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 UKMET looks better than last night's run. What was on the south shore of LI is a good 30-40 miles north now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 sometimes you see Blizzard warnings in the Midwest for an inch of snow...it's a misunderstood label-east coasters think it means big snows which is not always the case. Yes, it's more about sustained visibilities of less than 1/4 of a mile for I believe 3 consecutive hours in blowing snow than how much snow actually falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Another great video by Bernie Rayno... He's not convinced on the eastern push as much as models show, thinks it's coming north more http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/blizzard-dc-to-philadelphia-cl Love his videos, but his insistence on a northern push is reminiscent of his insistence on a westward push during Juno. I remember as it it was becoming abundantly clear that the main band would not reach NYC, let alone Philly, he was on Twitter telling everyone to be patient. It was painful to watch unfold. He's pretty old-school and sticks with his forecasts to the bitter end. While I like how he doesn't blindly follow the models, sometimes it leads to spectacular busts (as it did last year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 12z JMA is a big hit. Right around an inch LE in the city and the half inch + contour goes back to the Binghampton CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LawdogGRNJ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 He maybe right but do ask yourself this? You have consistently been tooting Bernie's horn, while we , in fact, have multiple pros here who blow him clear out of the water in terms of knowledge. This isnt to deride your opinion or his, just an attempt to question because we always have to question our news and information sources. Can any of the "Pros that blow him clear out of the water" comment on his take that Nor'easters typically slide north a little?I'm curious to hear more as to the truth of his comment and/or why the models are trending so hard east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 There was no support from the NAM UKMET or Euro by this point in 2010, only the GFS was really saying greater NYC was still in it. This likely ends up 30-40 miles north or so of where that was I agree. Still going to be painful for many just north of where the heavy stuff ends up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Gefs have improved for nyc close to 1.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What does the ggem have for somerset county..thanks 0.25-0.50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BucksCO_PA Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 That is why it is a watch not a warning, after looking at the NAM I can see that. But looking at the GFS I could also see NYC getting little or nothing. It is still too early to tell. I bet today's ECMWF will nudge it another 5-10 miles south, but after that who knows. Wind concern is also a huge factor with the blizzard watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What does the ggem have for somerset county..thanks .5 i think..hard to tell on my maps ukie is over 1.00+ for u Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 UKMET looks better than last night's run. What was on the south shore of LI is a good 30-40 miles north now. Honestly... now having the UKMET on our side is a major plus in my book... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 A blizzard watch is issued when there is potential for snow and/or blowing snow reducing visibility to 1/4 mile or less for 3 hours or longerand sustained winds of 35 mph or greater or frequent gusts to 35 mph or greater within 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Upton is really throwing darts at a wall for NYC, lol. Their minimum is 2", max is 20", and "most likely" is 11". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Can any of the "Pros that blow him clear out of the water" comment on his take that Nor'easters typically slide north a little?I'm curious to hear more as to the truth of his comment and/or why the models are trending so hard east. Because they're picking up on an area of convection and jumping the low towards it which would normally not happen. It could be noise or could be correct since its several models doing that. There's no reason to just say oh it should come north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 More precip after that: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Gefs have improved for nyc close to 1.00 Makes you believe that the OP run is COMPLETELY out to lunch on this one and there is the possibility that it may never recover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Things seem to be getting slightly wetter for the immediate coast and drier for the far interior which tells you that the boundary is somewhere around Rt. 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Enough of the banter. TOs coming soon. Parts of this forum are still going to get a decent storm, if you cant control yourself in one thread for actual info to get out, PM me and ill help you not have access until sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 .5 i think..hard to tell on my maps ukie is over 1.00+ for u It's 0.25-0.50" based on zoomed in high res maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dhaulagiri1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Upton is really throwing darts at a wall for NYC, lol. Their minimum is 2", max is 20", and "most likely" is 11". Upton's not commited to a forecast yet, which is sensible in my view, that will change after the 00z suite I would also imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.