donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 While still applying the usual caveats about QPF solutions at this point in time, the last three runs of the GFS may be implying that the boundary between light snow and moderate or greater accumulations might wind up somewhere between Newark and White Plains. The last 3 runs of the GFS showed the following figures: EWR: 0.87", 0.64", 0.78" NYC: 0.56", 0.63", 0.62" HPN: 0.30", 0.51", 0.20" -- large run-to-run changes A question concerns whether the higher resolution short-term models or the global models will do a better job identifying that boundary in which there will likely be a sharp fall off in accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 So 12Z NAM shifted the northern edge of precip considerably North...12Z GFS did the opposite. Can any mets or someone shed any light on the key differences causing the difference in how far North decent precip gets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Another great video by Bernie Rayno... He's not convinced on the eastern push as much as models show, thinks it's coming north more http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/blizzard-dc-to-philadelphia-cl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Southern part of this sub-form are right in the money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasperk99 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 So do you think the 12Z rgem is going to climb a bit more after 48 or exit stage right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I know we shouldn't be looking at snow maps, but that cutoff though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Another great video by Bernie Rayno... He's not convinced on the eastern push as much as models show, thinks it's coming north more http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/blizzard-dc-to-philadelphia-cl How good is he? just asking. I do not know much of him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Jan 21 12z Summary QPF NYC/NJ area (i-78 to i-195) Less North to more south of course. SREF: 1.25- 1.55 NAM: 1.75 - 2.05 GFS: 0.55 - 1.15 RGEM: GGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 How good is he? just asking. I do not know much of him. I personally like him, I think he does great, explanations.. Especially if your not super versed in the lingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The further NE positioning of the upper low is encouraging, but the redevelopment of the low well offshore is a negative, as well as the early cutting off. Those put the brake on any further progress north. The cutoff may not be as dramatic as Feb 6, 2010 because the confluence won't be as strong, but there will definitely be a sharp drop off north of where the banding can make it. Gun to my head, I'd say the heavy banding makes it 30-40 miles or so north of where the banding then stopped. But we'll have to see how other models today trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Jan 21 12z Summary QPF NYC/NJ area (i-78 to i-195) Less North to more south of course. SREF: 1.25- 1.55 NAM: 1.75 - 2.05 GFS: 0.55 - 1.15 RGEM: GGEM: There is 1.5 down towards 195 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 RGEM does NOT make the shift east that the GFS and euro show, at HR 48, comes almost due north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Well one good thing... the cutoff is not as sharp to North... Lets hope that is the case because it will make everyone feel a little easier The fact that this has 25" of snow in Kings Park and 3" in Port Jeff, then 20" near Rocky Point and nothing in Baiting Hollow doesn't give much confidence in the other cutoffs depicted. Then there's that little blob that is always there in the south fork with nothing to the west or east. I get the issue with resolution of the model vs where the land masses are, but not why they never find a way to give more value to these maps. But so as not to be a complete pill, its a safe bet there will be a sharp dropoff in accumulations at the north end of the precip shield. It's just that these LI maps are absolutely senseless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Another great video by Bernie Rayno... He's not convinced on the eastern push as much as models show, thinks it's coming north more http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/blizzard-dc-to-philadelphia-cl He's been all over that. Definitely still a possibility at this stage. And exactly what we need if we are going to get this in to the city. (In a big way) As much as this looks similar to 2/10 no single storm is exactly the same so just because that storm had insane cutoffs doesn't mean this one will. Also this time around we have been consistently on the right side of that cutoff at least down in city. 2/10 had very solid snow amounts south of the cutoff so if this does behave like that storm and we continue on the right side of the cuttoff game on!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Someone here is going to be on the wrong side of a heartbreaking cutoff, I have a feeling it will be the North of I-80 crew. That seems to be a little too far south.... I really believe the cutoff will be the I-84 corridor.... south of there significant event and north little to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Another great video by Bernie Rayno... He's not convinced on the eastern push as much as models show, thinks it's coming north more http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/blizzard-dc-to-philadelphia-cl He maybe right but do ask yourself this? You have consistently been tooting Bernie's horn, while we , in fact, have multiple pros here who blow him clear out of the water in terms of knowledge. This isnt to deride your opinion or his, just an attempt to question because we always have to question our news and information sources. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 RGEM does NOT make the shift east that the GFS and euro show, at HR 48, comes almost due north and the run ends after that correct?? So we can't see what happens next.. how does the pecip shield look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This will likely be a tense nowcasting session for NYC metro. I don't think we'll have a good idea of how NYC will do until we see where the heavy banding sets up. Because of the brutal gradient, I can see NYC getting 6 inches or 18 inches...both seem realistic. I'm going to start paying a lot more attention to mesoscale models and NOAA at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 He's been all over that. Definitely still a possibility at this stage. And exactly what we need if we are going to get this in to the city. (In a big way) As much as this looks similar to 2/10 no single storm is exactly the same so just because that storm had insane cutoffs doesn't mean this one will. Also this time around we have been consistently on the right side of that cutoff at least down in city. 2/10 had very solid snow amounts south of the cutoff so if this does behave like that storm and we continue on the right side of the cuttoff game on!!!!! He mentions in an earlier video, the confluence strength does NOT support the northern extent being as south, hence why he thinks NYC and even lower Rockland and westchester are blizzard areas, he also said how rare with this set up, and building heights ahead of the storm, it is to have a storm kick east, regardless of the s/w push...same thing happened in 96... Everyone says 2010, well 96 is just as relevant... Maybe I'm wishcasting but I see this being more expansive tHan it's being modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Hence why the NWS probabilities are literally 2-20". Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 and the run ends after that correct?? So we can't see what happens next.. how does the pecip shield look? RGEM look great.. Now is the east shift gonna come on the HR 51 gram we can't see? Idk lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 BLIZZARD WATCH FOR NYC very risky I know we shouldn't be looking at snow maps, but that cutoff though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 BLIZZARD WATCH FOR NYC very risky It's a watch, not a warning. What, exactly, is the "risk?" They are alerting the public to the possibility of blizzard conditions Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 the ULL is in Kansas, how the hell are models saying it's going to be in LA tonight??? Can anybody explain this? Doesn't seem right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 That is why it is a watch not a warning, after looking at the NAM I can see that. But looking at the GFS I could also see NYC getting little or nothing. It is still too early to tell. I bet today's ECMWF will nudge it another 5-10 miles south, but after that who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 With respect to the RGEM, below is that model's cyclone tracking map. IMO, it's a little soon to assume that the RGEM won't send the storm eastward in subsequent runs. One may be dealing with a timing issue that lies outside the 12z run's range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 sometimes you see Blizzard warnings in the Midwest for an inch of snow...it's a misunderstood label-east coasters think it means big snows which is not always the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Even where I am, the Winter Storm Watch is for 8-14" Winter Storm WatchURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ1037 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016...A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA FROM FRIDAY NIGHTINTO SUNDAY...NJZ007>009-PAZ061-062-220445-/O.CON.KPHI.WS.A.0001.160123T0500Z-160124T1500Z/WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMINGTON...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON1037 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHTTHROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...8 TO 14 INCHES POSSIBLE.* TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... THENCONTINUE HEAVY AT TIMES INTO SUNDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...SNOW MAY BE DRY AND FLUFFY AT THE START... BUT WILLBECOME WETTER AND HEAVIER AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS. SHOVELING MAYBE PROBLEMATIC FOR THOSE WITH PHYSICAL AILMENTS. SNOW MAYCLING TO WIRES AND TREES WHICH MAY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES. ROADSWILL BECOME IMPASSABLE DUE TO INCREASING SNOW ACCUMULATIONDURING THE EVENT.* WINDS...NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITORTHE LATEST FORECASTS.SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST MAPS IN ADDITION TO EXPERIMENTALPROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST EVENT AREAVAILABLE ONLINE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/WINTER&&$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 12z GGEM has nothing or very little North of I-78 in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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