pstar3182 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This is 30 words to say, "I don't know." OK. If anyone understands why the RGEM and NAM are deviating from the Euro and GFS, holler. Exchange emails and continue there. Calling a spade a spade, this is banter. Pipe down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The ULL is further Northeast on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The ULL is further Northeast on the GFS Heights look a bit better out in front as well compared to 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Light snow to NYC by daybreak Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The ULL is further Northeast on the GFSWhich map is the most important to be looking at? The 500 vort/height one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Def going to further north then 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The moderate snows are further NE so far but the actual extent of the precip shield is around the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Which map is the most important to be looking at? The 500 vort/height one?Yes. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 has your F5 key broke yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Which map is the most important to be looking at? The 500 vort/height one? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Phl-central and southern nj smoked this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It still closes off too far South for the Northern half of the sub-forum. You can see the mid-level winds already weakening by 21z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Phl-central and southern nj smoked this runncep stuck on hr 33. What are you up to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Brick wall right at I-80. Similar to 2/6/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 ncep stuck on hr 33. What are you up to? Hr 66 2.00 qpf for snj and Phl Tight gradient around NYC. .75 close to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 00z, 6z, 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Positive step so far. Still time to tick north. City looks locked in for warning criteria now. Keep getting little ticks N and we get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Look familiar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 12z 4K nam low pressure is definitely NW of the 6z position. It's about 30 miles NW of 06z, and about 150 miles east of the central Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Dawk 20 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yes Forgive my basic question, but what constitutes the h5 'closing off' when looking at this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This run was significantly drier on the Northern edge 06z run for comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dhaulagiri1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Look familiar? Well, with a gradient like that it's obviously going to be a nowcast; theoretically, I shouldn't even look at the models from here on out, but I know I will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It amazing to have a gradient like that, be on the northern edge of it and STILL have to worry about mixing and rain like we do out here on the east end. Certainly not the most ideal setup for us out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I kind of like where we sit in the city. I think the short range models will have a better handle on northern precip edge. I think NYC min is 6" based on all available data with def potential for much more. Room and time for this to lift North. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The GFS dumps on area from Staten Island south with the same deform band the nam has. The nam just pushes it further northeast then when the storm exits we get a nice trowel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Forgive my basic question, but what constitutes the h5 'closing off' when looking at this It's more about where the other mid-level centers close off like 700mb. Once that happens not only will it stop moving North but it will begin the process of becoming vertically stacked and weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Snow just hits a wall north of Monmouth County, and the low well offshore takes over and drags everything out. There's still some time for around the city to have a nice event, but the window for far north suburbs is about closed, and if other models keep trending less impressive around the city today, it's looking more like the writing is on the wall for this to be another Feb 6, 2010 type outcome. The low just closes off too soon, dynamics die off, and dry air forces a very tight gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 People shouldn't be getting too worked up over the qpf maps of the global models at this point in the game. As far as upper level features, not much has changed since yesterday's runs and one could argue the trends have been generally positive since last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 By 12z on Saturday on RGEM, there is pretty much nothing yet from Monmouth and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Was noted earlier but bears repeating. If the snow band gets under you/past your location -- it's very likely to be ripping snow under you. This will be like being in our out of a lake effect band in a way. That's where there is such a sharp cut-off on the models. So if NYC get into the snow - it will likely be very significant. Just my two cents. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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