Drz1111 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 2 feet in the city, most LI and NJ this run. I will say it again, not NAM's range. Now now, this is emphatically the NAMs range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM nailed the Feb 5/6 2010 disaster, hopefully it has a knack with these type of storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 qpf was cut back by a lot. 16-18 inches in the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This run ends up being much better in the end despite heights initially being lower. Part of it was probably that the trough overall was more amplified than 06z so the confluence was still able to get out of the way in time. You were getting into your old bad habit of predicting instead of just reporting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 qpf was cut back by a lot. 16-18 inches in the city Oh right, because we were all expecting 30-35" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Think of the atmosphere as a sponge. The more the confluence to the North presses down, the more compressed and more intense the precipitation. The lesser confluence equals a more expansive precip shield which is a little less intense. The mid-level jet is so intense that all anyone should worry about is getting the precip shield overhead because once that happens it's going to crank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 qpf was cut back by a lot. 16-18 inches in the city Now its more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Northern edge has probably been established where it's shown on the Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Now its more realistic. That's not quite right. If the NAM depiction verifies, someone is probably getting 24"+ right below the sharp gradient, where there is enhanced lift. The issu is that you don't know where that 24"+ is going to sit until, basically, real time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dhaulagiri1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 qpf was cut back by a lot. 16-18 inches in the city Good lord, I know how you feel, but let's at least get 24 hrs out before we concern ourselves with mesoscale features; and, actually maybe not even then haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM is low to mid-20's for the entire duration of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 If the 6" line ends up being ~ 75 miles north of NYC I think most will be quite happy around the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think that's more than 16-18 for the city... Around 2 qpf maybe pushing 2ft based on that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Well one good thing... the cutoff is not as sharp to North... Lets hope that is the case because it will make everyone feel a little easier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 qpf was cut back by a lot. 16-18 inches in the cityYes, cut back, but still in 2-2.50. Unless you're expecting rain, that's more than 16-18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think that's more than 16-18 for the city... Around 2 qpf maybe pushing 2ft based on that run Yea it seems to be an average of 20-22" according to the NAM.... reason for the drop is because the northern extent expanded to the North a good bit so the bands are not as heavy or more sporadic now on the current run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Don't look at the NAM until 24 hours away. Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaGrangewx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 even if this crushes dc, Balt, philly, Nyc I think it maxes at a 4 on the nesis because Boston metro won't get a lot. Pd2 hit all the cities hard and a record for Boston yet still a 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Well one good thing... the cutoff is not as sharp to North... Lets hope that is the case because it will make everyone feel a little easier We weren't expecting the NAM to show the crazy totals last night. What I take from this run is the surface low is still tucked into the coast and most importantly is the northern extent of the Precip shield. It is much further north and that's important. If it's right , anyone south of that would be ripping snow in intense deformation banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Stop worrying about QPF or snow maps. This run was much better for the Northern portion of the sub-forum and gives the city close to 20". The highest totals are always going to be very localized where the most intense banding sets up. It's good for everyone, north and south. It blows up the entire percip shield much larger then the globals have it. I dont really get it/buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I need the gfs to look close to that. I hope it's northern extent moves north by about 50 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Look at the mega band pivot right over the region. If that materialized everyone here would be buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Don't look at the NAM until 24 hours away. Period. What's your basis for saying this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What's your basis for saying this? About 20 years of let downs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 About 20 years of let downs. Rigorous science indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 About 20 years of let downs. keep your personal problems off the board.. this board is about weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I must say the consistency of the NAM is notable. The fact that the RGEM looks to be with it means it may just be onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Rigorous science indeed. Lol...It's the truth tho. A model busting over and over and over again slowly chips away at its credibility...especially at this range. Take it how you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYStorm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What's your basis for saying this? You must be kidding me. Hugging the NAM to begin with is unwise ... and hugging it 48 hours in advance is even riskier. Especially when you have the GFS and Euro converging on a different solution. The NAM is just not all that reliable. Will it be right in this case? You never know. But it's unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.