Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 A cut off, occluding low in a bad spot (right on the coast) will wrap warm air around it, perhaps enough to cause a mix on the coast if it sits around long enough. The wind direction isn't ideal either on the GFS, it's ENE for a good chunk of it. Of course, there are many, many more runs to go and the details will change. Yeah I would never say it can't change to rain for a time if this run is correct (it likely isn't) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 When you get a huge closed ULL likethe GFS is showing, especially in E VA, it is going to wrap up and bring warm air inland.Not if its vertically stacked with 850s crashing. I wouldnt get to caught up in r/s until wednesday pm at the very earliest. Great signal still for a big ticket event on the 0z suite thus far......thats the takeaway here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 But just to add/note, almost all KU type noreasters have some sort of mixing component in and around I95. It is common. We can hammer those details down in 3 days or so, not tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 HR 84--- storms finally in frame, no major change so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 HR 96-- storm is a bit less amped at this point, tracks general the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 So far through 102, it's def not a strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Low forms well south and east of 12z run, low is over Georgia as oppose to TN at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 HR 114-- Lows centered over Georgia, intensifying now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 This is taking a much different track than 12z IMO, low pushes off the SC coast and explodes, 12 had it head almost Due north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Well south and east of 12z, can't tell yet where it's heading Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro crushesThe coast gets crushed on this run. Low just inside the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Being out in the open water instead of land, it's down to 986mb, as oppose to 997 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euros a coastal crush for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Being out in the open water instead of land, it's down to 986mb, as oppose to 997 The warm waters really help this storm. This run is also a lot colder than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Being out in the open water instead of land, it's down to 986mb, as oppose to 997Sounds like Gulf Stream interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euros a coastal crush for sure It's a 20+ hour event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Pretty major shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 QPF? I'm encouraged that a different solution still brings the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro goes back to the idea of coastal and jersey sections getting hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Mid Atlantic to NYC/ LI special north of Rockland county have sharp cutoff, 4-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro goes back to the idea of coastal and jersey sections getting hammered Looks like the EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Euro goes back to the idea of coastal and jersey sections getting hammeredMonmouth jackpot? Its happened before lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Central and southern jersey, eastern Long Island to the cape, see 25+ inches, NYC is 12-18, north is 4-6+ less the further north you go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Not 100% sure why the euro kept most the decent precip to the eastern shield, hardcore northern cutoff this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Central and southern jersey, eastern Long Island to the cape, see 25+ inches, NYC is 12-18, north is 4-6+ less the further north you go NYC gets more on the snow map . Anyway, this is a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 NYC gets more on the snow map . Anyway, this is a big storm. NYC does not see more snow than central jersey.. Central jersey jackpots hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 19 inches in the city, 27 inches in Lakewood verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Not 100% sure why the euro kept most the decent precip to the eastern shield, hardcore northern cutoff this timeModels tend to do this with the precipitation shield this far out. In reality, that track would be a bomb up and down the MA to New England coast lines. If that track continues to be forecast, I would expect to see the precip shield expand. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 NYC does not see more snow than central jersey.. Central jersey jackpots hard Everyone on the coast gets at least 15 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Models tend to do this with the precipitation shield this far out. In reality, that track would be a bomb up and down the MA to New England coast lines. If that track continues to be forecast, I would expect to see the precip shield expand. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk I certainly would think so, it would be odd to see such a dynamic storm ride the coast like that, with such a long duration, and have a cutoff of 50 miles between 3-6" and 19" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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