PB GFI Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 So you're tossing in the towel? You can't be this stupid . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 IGNORE THE NAM !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Carry on . Agreed. That is the absolute worst weather model of all time. It has no purpose whatsoever outside of 12 hours and even that's shaky. This is the same model that insisted back in the fall that Joaquin was going to slam into the east coast, run after run for 19 straight runs in a row. It's just awful and useless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Agreed. That is the absolute worst weather model of all time. It has no purpose whatsoever outside of 12 hours and even that's shaky. This is the same model that insisted that Joaquin was going to slam into the east coast, run after run for 19 straight runs in a row. It's just awful and useless The is ensemble support for KNYC .50 -.75 Monmouth County 1.25 - 1.5 Ocean County 2 There is no support for seeing 3 inches of liquid in NYC The NAM should be ignored . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 So you're tossing in the towel? I don't think he is tossing in the towel. But come on the NAM shows 30" in NYC....... Really..... That will not happen. I would take 1/3 to half of that and run. The GFS is probably closer to reality in terms of amounts. Really think this is not one for the EURO. 6-12" throughout NYC, 4-8 for the immediate burbs up to Putnam/Westchester border.... Then it falls off to almost nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The is ensemble support for KNYC .50 -.75 Monmouth County 1.25 - 1.5 Ocean County 2 There is no support for seeing 3 inches of liquid in NYC The NAM should be ignored . Considering that 6" is the heaviest snowstorm in NYC during January following a top ten warmest December, this is a welcome gift even if the Jackpot is to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I don't think he is tossing in the towel. But come on the NAM shows 30" in NYC....... Really..... That will not happen. I would take 1/3 to half of that and run. The GFS is probably closer to reality in terms of amounts. Really think this is not one for the EURO. 6-12" throughout NYC, 4-8 for the immediate burbs up to Putnam/Westchester border.... Then it falls off to almost nothing. Good call at this point. Hopefully the 12z runs show an improvement, stranger things have definitely happened! Nobody should be surprised with the possibility of a sharp cutoff, just look at Juno and Feb 10'. Looks like I will be staying in NYC this weekend vs heading up to westchester (around HPN), could be a big difference in amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 So you're tossing in the towel?I think he means the 32" verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Agreed. That is the absolute worst weather model of all time. It has no purpose whatsoever outside of 12 hours and even that's shaky. This is the same model that insisted back in the fall that Joaquin was going to slam into the east coast, run after run for 19 straight runs in a row. It's just awful and uselessIs the rgem which is in-step with the nam thru 48 also a piece of dung?Hi res big hit camp vs globals right now. If the globals are missing the capture the hi res models are hinting at, even if a partial capture, all bets are off, period. And hey, irt the NAM sucking, even a blind squirrel finds a nut from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think he means the 32" verbatim. Yeah the QPF projection is likely excessive as always but as others noted the NAM did quite well with the 2010 storm in terms of track and cutoff. As Forky said it's probably an all or nothing type of storm for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Considering that 6" is the heaviest snowstorm in NYC during January following a top ten warmest December, this is a welcome gift even if the Jackpot is to our south. The .75 - 1 line is near the Driscoll Bridge not A/C so you need a 20 mile shift N and not 100 to get that to KNYC . Lets see what the RGEM looks like as we get closer . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 6z NAM, which is probably overdoing it, still has shifted south with the northern extent of the precip shield. A big move at 12z and that is the end of the NAM crush jobs. We really want to see that precip shield blossom and spread north, which it doesn't. There's no room for error with the NAM (and it is just that, the long range NAM). We just have to hope the GFS and EURO aren't correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Yeah the QPF projection is likely excessive as always but as others noted the NAM did quite well with the 2010 storm in terms of track and cutoff. As Forky said it's probably an all or nothing type of storm for us. Personally, I don't think a near zero outcome is on the table. Assuming the storm can gain latitude no higher than the Outer Banks and confluence remains fairly strong (as consistently modeled), there could still be significant snows (>6") from a line running from Trenton to Asbury Park and a few inches 50- 75 miles north of there. That's probably close to a worst-case outcome. Also, the ECMWF's higher resolution probably gives it an edge with the thermal profiles, so a somewhat colder idea than the 6z GFS seems more likely than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Considering that 6" is the heaviest snowstorm in NYC during January following a top ten warmest December, this is a welcome gift even if the Jackpot is to our south. I could never get into these seemingly trivial historical rules, but they seem to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What is causing the eastward redevelopment, is it confluence/warm waters/progressive flow? Something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I could never get into these seemingly trivial historical rules, but they seem to work out. It don't view this as a fixed rule that has to work out, but a storm of such magnitude following the extreme warmth in December is another extreme we can add to the long list since the 90's. The jackpot zones to our south will see even a more extreme swing since they will get even more snow. I like to look at past climo in order to appreciate whats been happening over the past 20 years or so here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Blizzard watch issued for nyc and parts of ne nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I could never get into these seemingly trivial historical rules, but they seem to work out. I also don't like these "rules". I' ll bet the historical rule for central VA is even more unforgiving, but they'll likely be crushed. I think the long range models are having trouble with this one outside of VA which is the crossroads of all models. I think think we'll have to rely on short range models and now casting. RGEM comes into range tomorrow...of course. Let's give it some credence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What is causing the eastward redevelopment, is it confluence/warm waters/progressive flow? Something else? It's the confluence... It's basically like hitting a brick wall. It wants to go on the path of least resistance. For this to come further north the low needs to gain as much northern movement as possible. So a track that works in our favor could also be further west then depicted currently as well. If any changes were to happen it would have to be modeled today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It's the confluence... It's basically like hitting a brick wall. It wants to go on the path of least resistance. For this to come further north the low needs to gain as much northern movement as possible. So a track that works in our favor could also be further west then depicted currently as well. If any changes were to happen it would have to be modeled today. Thanks. On a different note, surprised with the Blizzard Watch, thought they would go for a Winter Storm Watch with the potential to change based on today's model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Thanks. On a different note, surprised with the Blizzard Watch, thought they would go for a Winter Storm Watch with the potential to change based on today's model runs. Well they could of gone either way with that. Forecast winds are supposed to high enough for potential conditions for a period of time. For blizzard conditions you need >35 winds for 3 straight hours. You don't need feet of snow to have a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It's the confluence... It's basically like hitting a brick wall. It wants to go on the path of least resistance. For this to come further north the low needs to gain as much northern movement as possible. So a track that works in our favor could also be further west then depicted currently as well. If any changes were to happen it would have to be modeled today. Confluence , yes, but on the lower resolution global models they are seeing the deep convection as a simple area to jump the low center. I dont think synoptically speaking its that simple. Yes, resistance to the North, yes low 'wants' to move ENE, BUT the ull is also attempting a capture at the same time. Really touch and go as to capture, partial capture, or center jump but with the hi res guidance coming into range, it seems we are losing this center jump idea on those particular models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Confluence , yes, but on the lower resolution global models they are seeing the deep convection as a simple area to jump the low center. I dont think synoptically speaking its that simple. Yes, resistance to the North, yes low 'wants' to move ENE, BUT the ull is also attempting a capture at the same time. Really touch and go as to capture, partial capture, or center jump but with the hi res guidance coming into range, it seems we are losing this center jump idea on those particular models. This will be the story to try to figure out on the models today! Also, I'm really struggling with the balloon type snow amounts in N. VA and how those don't translate more NE across our area. On would thing that when the L gets into the warm ocean waters it would capture and then sling snow bands right into our area. The way the GFS and Euro depict this evolution is odd. Forget the QPF on the NAM but the evolution of the storm makes a lot more sense. Even if you cut the total QPF in half that would be over a foot of snow for a good portion of the metro. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It's the confluence... It's basically like hitting a brick wall. It wants to go on the path of least resistance. For this to come further north the low needs to gain as much northern movement as possible. So a track that works in our favor could also be further west then depicted currently as well. If any changes were to happen it would have to be modeled today. It's not so much the confluence as it is the early h5 cut off. A storm can only move so far north if cut off so early on. That is why the later cut off on the NAM allows it to push further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblind Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Storm is over better tracking states nws states and they'll launching balloons ever few hrs. So I would think in part better info would mean a more accurate outcome. Usually just sit back and listen but I am just wondering if this is why the models are starting to lessen the impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 9z sref had over an inch of qpf for nyc. Looks great . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 9z sref had over an inch of qpf for nyc. Looks great . How was 3z? 21z was more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 How was 3z? 21z was more. Wetter then 03z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Considering that 6" is the heaviest snowstorm in NYC during January following a top ten warmest December, this is a welcome gift even if the Jackpot is to our south. Surely going back a few thousand years there has been a few 2-3' events for NYC after a mega torch December but none the last 150-200 years is a hell of a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It don't view this as a fixed rule that has to work out, but a storm of such magnitude following the extreme warmth in December is another extreme we can add to the long list since the 90's. The jackpot zones to our south will see even a more extreme swing since they will get even more snow. I like to look at past climo in order to appreciate whats been happening over the past 20 years or so here. Dc/Baltimore also torched December and they are in line for a historical blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 9z sref had over an inch of qpf for nyc. Looks great .You, my friend, are the equivalent of a ping-pong ball. I say this with love....you're good :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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