Jefflaw77 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 To me this almost feels like one of the uber convective rain events we seem to have every summer nowadays where there is convergence in the atmosphere that sets up to cause prolific rain amounts for a certain region. Yes, this is on a larger scale, but the lift involved here to create such unreal snow rates with a cutoff like the one advertised reminds me of those summer events.. I dunno- the Euro is kind of similar- just 75-100 miles south with the QPF resulting in much less snow for the NYC/LI area. It's so damn close that I think it can go either way. The NAM, verbatim is just scary - would shut down the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Not sure if I would have went for a Blizzard Watch just yet, probably would have gone with a Winter Storm Watch and could always upgrade later once conditions are more certain.Do u blame them? There is overwhelming support now on the hi res data for a potentially paralyzing hit from DC-NYC. The NAM qpf may or may not be overdone but its overall idea certainly isnt alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasperk99 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Well the GFS has initialized and then i need to get back to bed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Well the GFS has initialized and then i need to get back to bed! Me too.. I can't believe I'm up.. Kind of silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Who's got PBP for GFS? I'm still at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasperk99 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Who's got PBP for GFS? I'm still at work. Not sure I have the expertise to handle that; but i will say at 6 hours the upper level low is in a similar position and a touch stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Wow just wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Do u blame them? There is overwhelming support now on the hi res data for a potentially paralyzing hit from DC-NYC. The NAM qpf may or may not be overdone but its overall idea certainly isnt alone. You don't have to go with a Blizzard Watch right out of the box, I would have waited for a couple of more model runs before going that route. A Winter Storm Watch would have been sufficient to start with, there is still enough uncertainty IMO that it could have waited, but it is not a bad thing either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Everyone who is reading this has a disease. Things look a tad better than 00z on gfs so far. Less confluence and a better ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasperk99 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Everyone who is reading this has a disease. Things look a tad better than 00z on gfs. Less confluence and a better ridge. Trying to learn as I sit here at 445AM; is the confluence seen on the 500mb map or the surface? Still trying to understand how to see confluence on these model maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I hear the GFS sux. Similar CF problem as previous run.. way south- i feel bad for the NWS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 06Z GFS is pathetic. The northern precip shield is pretty weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblind Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I'll take the nam over the euro in this time range any day. Euro is not a good model close to the event.stick with the nam or serfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Is it being taken OTS like the EURO? Or is there now a third "option"? NAM - insane blizzard Gfs - nothing precept wise north but big totals south Euro - Ots and we all forget this ever happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This isn't a good run. Weird looked a bit better early in run pre 24hrs unless I'm just sleep deprived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS is prob alot closer to reality than the NAM.. I can't believe you guys keep falling for it. The only useful range of the NAM is within 12 hrs and thats even pushing it lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 GFS is prob alot closer to reality than the NAM.. I can't believe you guys keep falling for it. The only useful range of the NAM is within 12 hrs and thats even pushing it lol.. I agree about the NAM, but I am not sure the GFS has the right idea either which includes the Euro as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I agree about the NAM, but I am not sure the GFS has the right idea either which includes the Euro as well. If I had to guess right now I would say 4-8" for the city, 0-1" for up here.. This is a DC-PHL storm. Should be some impressive totals down there. Here is the 6z GFS precip totals and verbatim it isn't all snow for NYC & points east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If I had to guess right now I would say 4-8" for the city, 0-1" for up here.. This is a DC-PHL storm. Should be some impressive totals down there. Here is the 6z GFS precip totals and verbatim it isn't all snow for NYC & points east The GFS and the Euro being in bed together as far as the northern extent of the heavier precip. is a bit concerning, could they be right, sure, but I am not sold on that. The NAM on the other hand could have a better handle on the northern extent of the heavier precip. but I think its amounts are a bit overdone for the NYC metro. I still honestly feel 12" is a good bet for the NYC metro area and lesser amounts as one goes further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Eps was close to a foot for nyc . better than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marsplex Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Im having a hard time making a call on what my area here on Long Island will get, Stony Brook. feeling over 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Significant changes on the GFS imo. Slowly losing the slp 300 mile east handoff within 3 hr window. A capture or part capture is clearly where the gfs overall idea is headed. Shifted N with slp. Ignore run to run qpf blips, just noise at this point. The answer lies somewhere between the NAM and the GFS imho. Those people saying this run sucks, sure youve heard of being NAMd , but at the other end of the spectrum you are allowing yourselves to be GooFuSed and missing the big picture. GFS is slowly caving.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Precip on the northern edge of the cutoff is likely overdone not underdone on the models. South of the cutoff line, you are going to have insane lifting and very heavy rates. Subsidence north of the band will really cut down qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Significant changes on the GFS imo. Slowly losing the slp 300 mile east handoff within 3 hr window. A capture or part capture is clearly where the gfs overall idea is headed. Shifted N with slp. Ignore run to run qpf blips, just noise at this point. The answer lies somewhere between the NAM and the GFS imho. Those people saying this run sucks, sure youve heard of being NAMd , but at the other end of the spectrum you are allowing yourselves to be GooFuSed and missing the big picture. GFS is slowly caving.... I couldn't agree with you more. Also having the EPS strongly disagree 2 runs in a row is a big red flag for me. Just think this is not one for the EURO...has been all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I couldn't agree with you more. Also having the EPS strongly disagree 2 runs in a row is a big red flag for me. Just think this is not one for the EURO...has been all over the place.It is the slowwwww fold game the GFS is playing. We call it being GooFuSed. Seen it before. Am I signaling the apocalypse? No. But people claiming 1-3" in NYC and tossing in the towel while stepping away from this forum will be pleasantly surprised come Saturday PM imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It is the slowwwww fold game the GFS is playing. We call it being GooFuSed. Seen it before. Am I signaling the apocalypse? No. But people claiming 1-3" in NYC and tossing in the towel while stepping away from this forum will be pleasantly surprised come Saturday PM imho. I don't think there is any model currently just showing 1-3" for NYC so I am not sure where that particular poster got that from. Like I said in a previous post, I still like 12" for the NYC metro and we will see where the 12z runs take us today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Significant changes on the GFS imo. Slowly losing the slp 300 mile east handoff within 3 hr window. A capture or part capture is clearly where the gfs overall idea is headed. Shifted N with slp. Ignore run to run qpf blips, just noise at this point. The answer lies somewhere between the NAM and the GFS imho. Those people saying this run sucks, sure youve heard of being NAMd , but at the other end of the spectrum you are allowing yourselves to be GooFuSed and missing the big picture. GFS is slowly caving.... I noticed that too. I thought the GFS was going to lose that "phantom low" altogether but showed up at the last minute. I'm just not buying into this transfer scenario. The hi-res models do not show this which is a big red flag in my book. I'm not proclaiming a NAM doomsday storm, but I think last night's global suite are not showing the proper surface reflection despite an ominous looking 500 mb look. I expect the models will correct themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 IGNORE THE NAM !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Carry on . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 IGNORE THE NAM !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Carry on . Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 IGNORE THE NAM !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Carry on . So you're tossing in the towel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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