jm1220 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The 10:1 ratio map I saw looks like an average of 6" or so across Long Island and NYC. Sharp cutoff to near nothing north of Westchester. Like others have said, looks like things just fall apart once the storm gets to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Is that the final totals? Is the snow over by 72 hrs? Yes that's Sunday afternoon. The sun will be shining by then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 You mean the Euro?? Here is the Meteostar data. GFS 0Z, 1/21/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 From ORH in NE thread Also, right now, the models are still doing what wxniss called "russian roulette with the vort maxes"...which will also affect QPF on these runs, but is extremely unlikely to be the actual outcome. So I'm really only paying attention to the larger scale features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Looks like a solid 3-6", no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 that's probably the snowiest virginia map in the history of model guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 To me the EURO looked better early on, just some issues late. Would not be surprised to see it jump N @ 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 that's probably the snowiest virginia map in the history of model guidance. That's not too bad. We're right near the edge of the big 12"+ totals. Just a minor shift makes a huge difference. I think Thursday will be the day that the models give us a much better idea of what's going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 00Z RGEM ensemble meteogram for KNYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 To me the EURO looked better early on, just some issues late. Would not be surprised to see it jump N @ 12z tomorrow.Agree. I posted this in pa. Ok so the mets can jump in with thoughts on this but the run looked great through 60 hours. The slp actually was tucked in nice tracking over eastern nc right over Elizabeth city. Then at 66 it's tucked in right at the mouth of the Chesapeake bay. So far perfect track to at least get the southern 1/2 of pa. Then at 66 a second low forms due east about 100 miles under a convection plume and that pulls the whole thing due east. The euro actually tracks inside the gfs and ggem to that point then slingshots east. What are the chances that's a convective feedback error? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Agree. I posted this in pa. Ok so the mets can jump in with thoughts on this but the run looked great through 60 hours. The slp actually was tucked in nice tracking over eastern nc right over Elizabeth city. Then at 66 it's tucked in right at the mouth of the Chesapeake bay. So far perfect track to at least get the southern 1/2 of pa. Then at 66 a second low forms due east about 100 miles under a convection plume and that pulls the whole thing due east. The euro actually tracks inside the gfs and ggem to that point then slingshots east. What are the chances that's a convective feedback error? I'm just your average jacka$$ but I doubt it's convective feedback. I think it just runs into a confluent brick wall and it's curtains for NYC north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Agree. I posted this in pa. Ok so the mets can jump in with thoughts on this but the run looked great through 60 hours. The slp actually was tucked in nice tracking over eastern nc right over Elizabeth city. Then at 66 it's tucked in right at the mouth of the Chesapeake bay. So far perfect track to at least get the southern 1/2 of pa. Then at 66 a second low forms due east about 100 miles under a convection plume and that pulls the whole thing due east. The euro actually tracks inside the gfs and ggem to that point then slingshots east. What are the chances that's a convective feedback error? I'm just your average jacka$$ but I doubt it's convective feedback. I think it just runs into a confluent brick wall and it's curtains for NYC north. Yeah not sure about the convective feedback, but also don't think it will wind up like it is being depicted either. Have to wait and see what today's model runs bring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 That's not too bad. We're right near the edge of the big 12"+ totals. Just a minor shift makes a huge difference. I think Thursday will be the day that the models give us a much better idea of what's going to happen. we were right near the edge of them in 2010 as well. I know I drove down the turnpike the next morning and could see South Brunswick had much more than Colonia and so on as I went further south. I had about 3 inches...forget this one. Next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SN21 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 6z Nam... Big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SN21 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Still dumping snow at 9z Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Virtually the same as 00z. Another sharp cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM continues to absolutely destroy NYC, sharp cutoff remains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM gives me maybe 1" of snow.. Cant make it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Blizzard watch for NYC and LI. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 342 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016 ...NOR`EASTER TO IMPACT THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS WEEKEND... NJZ006-105>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-212300- /O.NEW.KOKX.BZ.A.0001.160123T1100Z-160124T1800Z/ HUDSON-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS- NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 342 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016 ...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...THE FIVE BOROUGHS OF NEW YORK CITY...COASTAL PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND LONG ISLAND. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 12 INCHES. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. * TIMING...SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS LIKELY. SECONDARY AND TERTIARY ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE. STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES. THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Uptons latest map.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Uptons latest map.. I think that's a good 1st call. This cutoff the models are depicting almost doesn't seem real. I think something has got to give. Could there be a cutoff...sure. As extreme as nam shows....I don't think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM only gives NYC around 32". Wth just happened? Cut 'em in half and most still take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM only gives NYC around 32". Wth just happened? Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk And 55 miles to its NW it gives 1" .. I mean that can't be real. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Rgem out to 48hrs looks like NAM. Maybe more amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Does anyone think these short term models are handling this correctly? The globals have this storm skipping east, toward the convection.. The NAM clearly doesn't do that. If the NAM is on to something- this event would shut the city down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Blizzard watch for NYC and LI. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 342 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016 ...NOR`EASTER TO IMPACT THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS WEEKEND... NJZ006-105>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-212300- /O.NEW.KOKX.BZ.A.0001.160123T1100Z-160124T1800Z/ HUDSON-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS- NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 342 AM EST THU JAN 21 2016 ...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...THE FIVE BOROUGHS OF NEW YORK CITY...COASTAL PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...AND LONG ISLAND. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 12 INCHES. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. * TIMING...SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TRAVEL DUE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS WITH WHITEOUT CONDITIONS LIKELY. SECONDARY AND TERTIARY ROADS MAY BECOME IMPASSABLE. STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A BLIZZARD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FALLING AND/OR BLOWING SNOW WITH STRONG WINDS AND EXTREMELY POOR VISIBILITIES. THIS CAN LEAD TO WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND MAKE TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS. Not sure if I would have went for a Blizzard Watch just yet, probably would have gone with a Winter Storm Watch and could always upgrade later once conditions are more certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 6z nam is a crush job for NYC and northern Nj... Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Not sure if I would have went for a Blizzard Watch just yet, probably would have gone with a Winter Storm Watch and could always upgrade later once conditions are more certain. agree 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Does anyone think these short term models are handling this correctly? The globals have this storm skipping east, toward the convection.. The NAM clearly doesn't do that. Been thinking this too, but to discount every other model, especially the euro and gfs... eh. Kinda pushing it, unless of course, theyre all handling something wrong, which would make some of our top performing models over the last decade semi useless for a forecast. Lol. Upton apparently sees something. Blizzard watches posted, with much higher totals than mt holly at the moment for central and ne nj. No idea what to think to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Does anyone think these short term models are handling this correctly? The globals have this storm skipping east, toward the convection.. The NAM clearly doesn't do that. If the NAM is on to something- this event would shut the city down. I'll take the nam over the euro in this time range any day. Euro is not a good model close to the event.stick with the nam or serfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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