phlsnowman24 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This run is actually a improvement snow wise from 18z for everyone. Phl and se PA are buried 4-8 for the metro A lot of that isn't snow due to the screaming easterly LLJ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What's more common in winter around here? The NAM and 2-3 feet of snow or the GFS and 6-10" of snow with some mixing for the I-95 corridor from Central Jersey to NYC? Thought so. This is not to say that the GFS is "correct" but it's certainly more likely to verify if these were the only choices, i.e., if anyone says to "toss the GFS" (without some really good reasoning, we may have to crack some skulls, lol. Hopefully, reality is somewhere more towards the slightly outrageous NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What's more common in winter around here? The NAM and 2-3 feet of snow or the GFS and 6-10" of snow with some mixing for the I-95 corridor from Central Jersey to NYC? Thought so. This is not to say that the GFS is "correct" but it's certainly more likely to verify if these were the only choices, i.e., if anyone says to "toss the GFS" (without some really good reasoning, we may have to crack some skulls, lol. Hopefully, reality is somewhere more towards the slightly outrageous NAM. TBF, in this sort of set up with this sort of antecedent airmass, the GFS is in its own way showing an equally anomalous solution. It basically requires capture and occlusion at a very low latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What's more common in winter around here? The NAM and 2-3 feet of snow or the GFS and 6-10" of snow with some mixing for the I-95 corridor from Central Jersey to NYC? Thought so. This is not to say that the GFS is "correct" but it's certainly more likely to verify if these were the only choices, i.e., if anyone says to "toss the GFS" (without some really good reasoning, we may have to crack some skulls, lol. Hopefully, reality is somewhere more towards the slightly outrageous NAM. This logic makes no sense. What's more common, 30+" in the DC/B'more area, or not? The GFS shows that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Gfs has basically killed all of long island good snows and NYC with brief mixing I do believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Ignoring the QPF output I think we're getting closer to a consensus on where the Northern edge will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This logic makes no sense. What's more common, 30+" in the DC/B'more area, or not? The GFS shows that. Exactly and folks in SNE should logically be getting hammered too but that's not the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What's more common in winter around here? The NAM and 2-3 feet of snow or the GFS and 6-10" of snow with some mixing for the I-95 corridor from Central Jersey to NYC? Thought so. This is not to say that the GFS is "correct" but it's certainly more likely to verify if these were the only choices, i.e., if anyone says to "toss the GFS" (without some really good reasoning, we may have to crack some skulls, lol. Hopefully, reality is somewhere more towards the slightly outrageous NAM. While I agree that the long range NAM is absolutely terrible and 6-10" is more likely than 30-40", how often does the central VA area receive 2-3 feet of snow whole NYC ends up with a sloppy 4-8"? Fun times ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I have no doubt that 6"+ QPF bullseye near the surface low is convective feedback. The CCB should be exploding over the area in this frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Cmc looks similar to GFS in totals if I'm reading b+w maps correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acvyse Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Do you guys believe the mixing on LI? That high to the North is rather strong, but the waters on the south shore are anomalously warm this time of year. It could actually mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 CmC is wetter then Gfs but similar evolution. NYC is close to 1.00 More to the sw .5 to hpn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The CMC also has problems. The SLP is hugging a QPF Maximum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 No way GGEM has gotten to the time frame needed to show snow totals.. Gotta be old They are stamped Jan 21st on the Canadian website. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If GFS and CMC are doing same thing, maybe it's just the way the storm is going to go and not CFI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This logic makes no sense. What's more common, 30+" in the DC/B'more area, or not? The GFS shows that. Your point is a good one, but my logic is sound, for what I said. I didn't say anything about what the models showed before their output for our area. My only point was that to "expect" 2-3 feet and assume that model output is more likely to be correct than model output showing 8" of snow is illogical, since probabilisticaly speaking, obviously 8" is a far more likely outcome than 30". The main point was that very often people with snow goggles on will want to dismiss the models that show the least snowy solutions, without good reasoning. Didn't mean to derail the thread, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If GFS and CMC are doing same thing, maybe it's just the way the storm is going to go and not CFIThis always happens with storms like these. Never comes into fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Look at the configuration at 850mb on the GGEM. It's almost trying to close off 3 separate centers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 This always happens with storms like these. Never comes into fruition. Again, it happened last year with the Blizzard Bust. Wonder if we're cruising towards another such bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Again, it happened last year with the Blizzard Bust. Wonder if we're cruising towards another such bust.Are you sure it happened last year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Let's play a game of how many surface lows can I find at one time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Anyone else seeing the hi res models capture scenario vs the global lower res slp escaping quickly game here? Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Let's play a game of how many surface lows can I find at one time? It's almost like it wants to tuck the low into the coast but it forms other LPs right near the blobs of convection. The GFS does something similar too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Can someone explain the difference between the regular and 4k NAM? They seem a bit different with storm/precip positionGrid spacing (resolution). The NAM runs with 12 km grids (small resolution it uses to incorporate mesoscale features) where as the 4km uses a resolution of 4km. Ultra high resolution and used to pinpoint mesoscale banding and convective elements that the 12km Nam itself cannot see due to a lack of resolution . Anyone else seeing the hi res models capture scenario vs the global lower res slp escaping quickly game here? Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Been seeing that for two days now. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Let's play a game of how many surface lows can I find at one time? With the L tucked into the coast like that... There is no reason for the blob off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Even the 00z GFS which appeared to have some issues gives 95% of the area a warning criteria snowfall. When that's the worst run, you're doing fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Even the 00z GFS which appeared to have some issues gives 95% of the area a warning criteria snowfall. When that's the worst run, you're doing fine. But the pivotal snow map is completely different. Is the GFS accounting for the qpf that falls as sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 You better be seated for this one: 0Z NAM BY THE COBB SNOW ALGORITHM IS 45" @ 15:1 FOR KLGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 You better be seated for this one: 0Z NAM BY THE COBB SNOW ALGORITHM IS 45" @ 15:1 FOR KLGA. lol, ah the NAM. I remember some obscene numbers like that for the Juno storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Cmc still shows near 10 inches for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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