Blizzardo Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Lol silly Nam It was bound to happen lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Talk about a crazy northern edge gradient. That would be heartbreaking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 LOL, such an absurd run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Big jump north on the south side, lots of precip issues in s nj/del, but wow for c/nj, 3.1" QPF all snow :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Well.....we've been NAM'd like never before. Remember what it is and what it has done to us before.....on to the next weather model and reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Ok. So how much fantasy is this run?? Lol. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowberd Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Long time lurker need to say ..that run is a mutha :$("@/ ing creation of beauty right there...on the list of things that make you say OMFG. To bad it's the NAM Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I wouldn't put much trust in those QPF amounts. The heaviest precip rates jump all over the place during the event. Looks wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Biggest take away for me is that the Low didn't immediately slide east like the GFS, but rather it held steady for hours before it finally started slipping away, and the confluence trended weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Those snow depth maps aren't really accumulation, are they? I would think depths are usually lower than accums. And yes, I know it's BS, but I still want to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Talk about a crazy northern edge gradient. That would be heartbreakingPoughkeepsie here. I feel the heartbreak. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Big jump north on the south side, lots of precip issues in s nj/del, but wow for c/nj, 3.1" QPF all snow :-) This is the best case scenario for the tristate and I don't see it ticking much further north. As soon as it hits the confluence it starts heading east. However it's the Nam and while I'd give anything for this to verify we need the big boys to play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Biggest take away for me is that the Low didn't immediately slide east like the GFS, but rather is held steady for hours before it finally starting slipping away. And because of that, I suppose you could get 3.0 qpf 96 style but..... it's the NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I wouldn't put much trust in those QPF amounts. The heaviest precip rates jump all over the place during the event. Looks wrong.You haven't been following weather very long, have you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Another shift north! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Biggest take away for me is that the Low didn't immediately slide east like the GFS, but rather is held steady for hours before it finally starting slipping away, and he confluence trended weaker. This 10x's Cut nam totals in half and you still have a pretty good storm. Stalling off coast is key here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I am going to say it...it's the NAM. I said it before, cut the totals by 25% and hope the track is right. Which basically dumpes 18 in the city. None would sign up for that. Cutoff is not far away and a 50 mile correction in 48 hours is nothing. But if we see the 2 globals go there, I will bite. But I fear the faster/flatter flow solution from 18z GFS is real... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Biggest take away for me is that the Low didn't immediately slide east like the GFS, but rather is held steady for hours before it finally starting slipping away, and he confluence trended weaker. Very much agreed. There are definitely positives that can be taken from this run. Much further north. Better heights, less confluence. The QPF is most likely overdone but if this storm just sits for a while and does not exit quickly east then it may not be far from the truth. We shall see onto the next model....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Back to the bone crushing noreaster idea. Let's get the GFS on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The heavy precip shifted 30-40 miles north or so on the NAM, and SNE gets swiped by the departing CCB, even up to Boston. Yeah, it's likely overdone on the precip, but that's the NAM. Ferocious winds showing up on the NJ coast again this run. That's the side effect of a closer and tucked in low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Ok everyone has sobered up now, on to the GFS. On to the confluence storyline, if that is further away or isobars less tight. Won't that limit the lift in the banding? We need that wall for the precip to mash into and drop everything right there for big amounts, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What does the area for Passaic County NJ look like when it comes to predictions for total. Just a general idea at where im standing. Had plans but now things aren't looking to good for the weekend. But bring on the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Much more curious about what the RGEM shows though, which should be coming out any minute now. Lets hope it's on par with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The heavy precip shifted 30-40 miles north or so on the NAM, and SNE gets swiped by the departing CCB, even up to Boston. Yeah, it's likely overdone on the precip, but that's the NAM. Ferocious winds showing up on the NJ coast again this run. That's the side effect of a closer and tucked in low. Looks very much like the GFS from last night. Storm is tucked in and crawling. This would be the nightmare scenario for the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 You haven't been following weather very long, have you? Why? Because the NAM is usually overdone and that was an obvious comment? The run makes a lot of sense though. NYC sits under the mesoscale snow banding for several hours because the low stalls out. Thus, the band never moves northward. Then it exits eastward. In some ways, the suburbs' famine is the city's feast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 1/21 00Z Guidance Suite Summary QPF @ NYC SREF: 1.25 - 1.50 (estimated) NAM: 2.50 - 3.05 (estimate) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The NESIS rating on that type of storm would be insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Another shift north!overall the precip shield didn't shift that much north, just raised amounts. Still worried about the confluence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 21, 2016 Author Share Posted January 21, 2016 Per New England thread, RGEM is north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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