jm1220 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Verbatim, a lot of what falls in the SE part of NJ and maybe even the eastern tip of Long Island is a mix or rain. Temps there torch into the low 40s on the GFS. Of course, it's irrelevant at this point, but you'll want the low to slide out to sea faster, or else warm air could wrap around the low and make it dicey for coastal areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 That's about the most perfect GFS run you'll ever see. Gorgeous evolution. Nearly 2" LE. Conservative SV maps indicating 18-21" just NW of NYC and 30"+ North of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Much warmer run for the coast with the low tucked in These fine details will change in the coming days. The important thing here is that the top two models agree on a major if not historic storm hitting our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Much warmer run for the coast with the low tucked in Verbatim there's some mixing issues for the coast (unless the soundings say otherwise) but all areas take a hard hit. Lots of wind too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 132 on the GGEM crushes the area. Plenty of cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Drops nearly 30-40" in parts of PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Verbatim, a lot of what falls in the SE part of NJ and maybe even the eastern tip of Long Island is a mix or rain. Temps there torch into the low 40s on the GFS. Of course, it's irrelevant at this point, but you'll want the low to slide out to sea faster, or else warm air could wrap around the low and make it dicey for coastal areas.Very few people in this sub forum would receive much rain in this scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Very exciting to see the 3 majors, on board for a major event, I'm still concerned with the amount of time we have to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GFS indicating close to 4" LE in parts of PA as frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jan17 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Latest GFS 0z has a less intense low. Long Island looks to have snow turning to rain and back to snow. The low runs inside the critical 40/70 benchmark. Still way to early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman86 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 yea well over 100hrs of time for things to change from here point on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Can we please keep all of the "oh no it's too warm for the coast" posts in banter. It's impossible to have any grasp on those finer details at this range. Just be happy it shows an outrageously good setup, it may be years before we see anything like this again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The GGEM is very similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Can we please keep all of the "oh no it's too warm for the coast" posts in banter. It's impossible to have any grasp on those finer details at this range. Just be happy it shows an outrageously good setup, it may be years before we see anything like this again. If this storm had the dynamics the GFS and company are showing, closes off, and stalls like that, not a chance in sweet He** anyone in this sub is changing to rain... 850s are COLD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 yea well over 100hrs of time for things to change from here point on. The storm forms across the TN Valley around 80-90 hours so at this point I think it's safe to say this storm is going to happen but I could easily see it sliding out well south of here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Whoa, 10m winds on the GFS would support blizzard criteria well inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GGEM doesn't have nearly as long a duration storm as GFS, however it's stronger and should put out a higher QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 0z GGEM snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I don't know what's more obscene the 40 in SW PA or the 25 at the park w 60 mph wind gusts or the 80 mph winds on the east end of Long Island . The CMC is a little faster than the GFS . The numbers that these models are spitting out are giving me flashbacks. Totally different set up , but what is being modeled is crippling . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 CMC is a top 5 snowstorm for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 This map reflects the mixing at the coast, no? (And yes, I know it's a snow map 5-6 days out). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GGEM starts pulling the snow away Saturday evening, while the GFS keeps us snowing right past Sunday morning.....but, as the snow maps show, the GGEM is really intense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 0z GGEM snowmap That's basically a 96 repeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 This map reflects the mixing at the coast, no? (And yes, I know it's a snow map 5-6 days out). When you get a huge closed ULL likethe GFS is showing, especially in E VA, it is going to wrap up and bring warm air inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GGEM is 18-26" lmao.. Wow... Locally 30+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 If this storm had the dynamics the GFS and company are showing, closes off, and stalls like that, not a chance in sweet He** anyone in this sub is changing to rain... 850s are COLD Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 If this storm had the dynamics the GFS and company are showing, closes off, and stalls like that, not a chance in sweet He** anyone in this sub is changing to rain... 850s are COLD A cut off, occluding low in a bad spot (right on the coast) will wrap warm air around it, perhaps enough to cause a mix on the coast if it sits around long enough. The wind direction isn't ideal either on the GFS, it's ENE for a good chunk of it. Of course, there are many, many more runs to go and the details will change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...**SIGNIFICANT WINTER WX TO AFFECT OUR AREA THIS WEEK** 500MB: WHILE A -2SD TROUGH DEPARTS EASTWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND MONDAY NIGHT WE AWAIT THE PROBABLE DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERN STREAM CYCLONIC CIRCULATION SYSTEM IN THE SE USA FRIDAY. EASTERN PACIFIC SHORT WAVES NOT ONLY CUT EASTWARD THROUGH DIXIE BUT ALSO HEAVE A SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES. THE RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE IS A STRONGLY -NAO + PNA PATTERN. TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY WITH -18C AIR AT 850 MB TO START THE DAY. THIS COULD BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR TO DATE, OF THIS SO FAR, WARM WINTER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NORMAL OR JUST A BIT BELOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 12Z/17 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT, THEREAFTER THE 12Z/17 GFS MEX MOS WEDNESDAY - WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN FOR THURSDAY- SUNDAY THE 18Z/17 SUPERBLEND WHICH INCLUDES 12Z/17 GFS MEX GUIDANCE AND WPC GUIDANCE. BLENDED IN THE COLDER 12Z/17 ECMWF. THE DAILIES... ALL INFORMATION BELOW IS STATED WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A WINTER STORM IS LIKELY AND THOSE WITH TRAVEL-OUTDOOR PLANS FOR THE DELMARVA, EASTERN PA AND NJ SHOULD THINK ABOUT CONTINGENCY PLANNING FOR ADVERSE WINTER WX. THIS INCLUDES THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING A POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. NORTHEAST TO NORTH WIND GUSTS 25 TO 40 MPH...STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST. DETERMINISTIC DETAILS ARE IN THE FORECAST, BUT TIMING HEAVIEST PCPN, AXIS OF HEAVIEST PCPN AND THE AMOUNTS, AS WELL AS THE RAIN SNOW LINE STILL REMAIN WITH A VARIETY OF POSSIBILITIES. THIS MESSAGE ONLY SERVES NOTICE THAT A POTENT EVENT LOOMS AND THOUGHT SHOULD BE GIVEN AS TO MITIGATING ACTIONS SHOULD OUR FORECAST REMAIN SIMILARLY ADVERSE WHEN ISSUED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WE DO NOT POST SNOW ACCUMULATION GRAPHICS AND SNOW PROBABILITIES ON OUR WINTER WEATHER PAGE BEYOND 72 HOURS. HOWEVER, WPC HAD A 50 TO 70 PCT PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST A QUARTER INCH OF MELTED WATER EQUIVALENT PRECIPITATION ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CLEARING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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