David-LI Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM coming in stronger so far, can anyone do a pbp? I only have access to free maps. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Low further north so far. Heights are higher compared to 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 1/21 00Z Guidance Suite Summary QPF @ NYC SREF: 1.25 - 1.50 (estimated) at what kind of ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nam looks good so far. Hghts are higher on the east coast. Only out to hr 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 remembering many a bust in the 1960's we have come a long way with weather forecasting...Just watching satellite pictures makes it easier...back in January 1962 I awoke to a heavy snow warning on the radio...I looked out the window and the Sun was shinning...the greatest busts I lived thru were March 3rd 1960...The morning forecast was snow changing to rain with moderating temperatures...another heavy snow warning a week later...The storm missed Manhattan but grazed southern Staten Island with 3"...Saturday January 9th 1965 there was no mention of a snowstorm the next day...I awoke to heavy snow falling...late December 1967 had a heavy snow warning with snow falling...two hours later it changed to rain with no warning...February 9th, 1969 was another big bust...the forecast was for snow to turn to rain...they missed the bombing coastal again...now when a ten day forecast busts we get pissed... You have a good memory unc. I was there too. The prog is outside the 40/70 benchmark but I think you guys will do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think what you're seeing is two things. First, there are people on this forum who live in Westchester, Putnam, Dutchess, Orange, Rockland ... who would like to see a good storm in their area ... and the models have a sharp cutoff and have trended down in QPF for those areas. Secondly, from what I can recall in general for the NYC area, the accums have come down quite a bit from the potential that the GFS was showing a day or two ago. When one or more models spits out the potential for 12-24" totals, you are going to see people a little disappointed with 8-12. Add one more source of apathy, for lack of a better term: 6 of the 8 largest snowstorms in NYC's 147 year recorded weather history have occurred in the last 20 years, which is actually quite remarkable - people have become a bit spoiled, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Definitely a better look than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Definitely a better look than 18z That looks stunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nams atleast 50 miles north.. Maybe more so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nam looks great at 500... Best yet... That second streak over Maine is the thing to watch now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nams ULL is really digging, 80 miles north and slightly west too... Confluence looks to be pushing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I can't get a legit question verified/answered here? Great "discussion" site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I can't get a legit question verified/answered here? Great "discussion" site.MWhat was ur question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I can't get a legit question verified/answered here? Great "discussion" site. umm...the biggest model run of the storm is running now-later dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 umm...the biggest model run of the storm is running now-later dude. The NAM will never be "the biggest model of the storm", lol. It's still good to see it come north, but other models outweigh it big time. I give it about as much weight as the JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The heights are rising fast, this things coming north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nam looks real good so far... Mod snow to ttn hr 57 light snow to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The NAM is going to be way North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM is trending slightly north @ 48 hours. A 50 mile shift in either direction will make a world of difference. You can read about me in tomorrow's edition of the Gothamist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 @ hr 57 there looks to be a little less confluence and heights are higher along the coast... this baby's coming right up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I always find it funny that we hug the NAM when it's in our favor, but toss it when its not...lol Who has hugged he nam?... We're just reporting what it's showing right now, it's not a bad sign that it's come north.. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Does anyone know if the special soundings were assimilated into this run of the NAM? I assume the HHs haven't been flying yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Wow. The NAM looks nice so far through HR 57. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The overrunning Friday night into Saturday makes it to around Port Jervis instead of Wilmington. That's a huge jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nam puts almost ALL of PA in snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Mod snow to NYC hr 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 NAM is looking ripe to be a good 50 miles north already. The north trend is a real thing so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Diff 60 vs 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Strong mid-level forcing is almost all the way up to Albany by Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Nams coming 100 miles north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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