Franklin0529 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 How good are the sref usually at this range. I'm holding out hope an hoping things trend north. I want to see an all out blizzard on coastal Monmouth cty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Breene Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Tell that to the Euro OP re: January 2015. Full-on blizzard then under 12 hours merely flurries for my area. Sometimes I wonder how much of an improvement we truly have made. Certainly some, but there are clearly still major discrepancies/errors at times. I would not call that a major error. you were on a knife edge of a 50 mile extreme rare gradient as i understand it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 What combination do the SREFs represent and how skillful are they at predicting location, intensity, speed, etc.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 sref typically follows pevious nam due to influences in the physics. in this case 18z. we'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 New run Vs old run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Fairly stunned at the negativity in the Metro... We had the King and its ensembles come aboard in a big way, and every other model held serve. The 18z gfs was a step down, sure, but not like it took the storm off the table. And there are still some prolific solutions, too. When the worst model solution is an off hour run that gives 8-12 for most, and the majority of posters are complaining, something's definitely amiss. I think we've been burned by the extreme solutions that haven't verified so are looking for everything that can go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU4Real Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 How good are the sref usually at this range. I'm holding out hope an hoping things trend north. I want to see an all out blizzard on coastal Monmouth cty If you're really in Belford, how much snow we're getting shouldn't be your primary concern. You might want to be brushing up on your backstroke. NWS is forecasting tidal departures of 8 feet or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pstar3182 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Srefs! Very juicy. It's also considered an outlier.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 JMA was the 1st model to catch onto a big one a few years ago. feb 2006 picked up on it a day before anything else. It's shining moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 1/21 00Z Guidance Suite Summary QPF @ NYC SREF: 1.25 - 1.50 (estimated) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 In theory, the models should be better than they were 20 years ago.In theory communism works. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 It is the first model running off the latest data for the cycle. The NAM usually follows course. Watch the NAM come much further northwest now on its new run. It's also considered an outlier.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Fairly stunned at the negativity in the Metro... We had the King and its ensembles come aboard in a big way, and every other model held serve. The 18z gfs was a step down, sure, but not like it took the storm off the table. And there are still some prolific solutions, too. When the worst model solution is an off hour run that gives 8-12 for most, and the majority of posters are complaining, something's definitely amiss. I think we've been burned by the extreme solutions that haven't verified so are looking for everything that can go wrong. i'm on board. there isn't a 3sd -nao to keep the confluence in place this time and latent heat release should pump the ridge enough for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If you're really in Belford, how much snow we're getting shouldn't be your primary concern. You might want to be brushing up on your backstroke. NWS is forecasting tidal departures of 8 feet or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acvyse Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Computer power definitely increased and observation network expanded for data sampling. So did parameterization techniques. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jason WX Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 SREF could be sniffing out another N trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If you're really in Belford, how much snow we're getting shouldn't be your primary concern. You might want to be brushing up on your backstroke. NWS is forecasting tidal departures of 8 feet or more. Do you think it will verify? I thought winds were looking less severe.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 i'm on board. there isn't a 3sd -nao to keep the confluence in place this time and latent heat release should pump the ridge enough for us It's challenging, for sure. I mean, a whiff is not impossible but I'd be almost less shocked by 12+. Colleagues were pestering me for a call on my way out the door - I said 6-12 - but feel only 60% confident in that rather large range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherGod Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I for one am ready to be NAM'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 remembering many a bust in the 1960's we have come a long way with weather forecasting...Just watching satellite pictures makes it easier...back in January 1962 I awoke to a heavy snow warning on the radio...I looked out the window and the Sun was shinning...the greatest busts I lived thru were March 3rd 1960...The morning forecast was snow changing to rain with moderating temperatures...another heavy snow warning a week later...The storm missed Manhattan but grazed southern Staten Island with 3"...Saturday January 9th 1965 there was no mention of a snowstorm the next day...I awoke to heavy snow falling...late December 1967 had a heavy snow warning with snow falling...two hours later it changed to rain with no warning...February 9th, 1969 was another big bust...the forecast was for snow to turn to rain...they missed the bombing coastal again...now when a ten day forecast busts we get pissed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYStorm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Fairly stunned at the negativity in the Metro... We had the King and its ensembles come aboard in a big way, and every other model held serve. The 18z gfs was a step down, sure, but not like it took the storm off the table. And there are still some prolific solutions, too. When the worst model solution is an off hour run that gives 8-12 for most, and the majority of posters are complaining, something's definitely amiss. I think we've been burned by the extreme solutions that haven't verified so are looking for everything that can go wrong. I think what you're seeing is two things. First, there are people on this forum who live in Westchester, Putnam, Dutchess, Orange, Rockland ... who would like to see a good storm in their area ... and the models have a sharp cutoff and have trended down in QPF for those areas. Secondly, from what I can recall in general for the NYC area, the accums have come down quite a bit from the potential that the GFS was showing a day or two ago. When one or more models spits out the potential for 12-24" totals, you are going to see people a little disappointed with 8-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU4Real Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Do you think it will verify? I thought winds were looking less severe.... Even "less severe" looks to be 30+ kts for a sustained period of time with a lot of fetch during a high astronomical tide. Mt. Holly has been saying all day that this could be a "top 5 historical flooding event" for the Jersey shore. Monmouth County OEM is taking it pretty seriously - unless the models seriously back off over the next 12-18 hours, there will be voluntary evacs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I think what you're seeing is two things. First, there are people on this forum who live in Westchester, Putnam, Dutchess, Orange, Rockland ... who would like to see a good storm in their area ... and the models have a sharp cutoff and have trended down in QPF for those areas. Secondly, from what I can recall in general for the NYC area, the accums have come down quite a bit from the potential that the GFS was showing a day or two ago. When one or more models spits out the potential for 12-24" totals, you are going to see people a little disappointed with 8-12. Oh, I get the frustration. For the Metro, though, yesterday was more of a funeral parlor after the Euro disappearing act. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I like a 10-15" call for most of us in this sub forum. While we probably will not get the snow amounts that the DC area will, we could be approach or even exceed half of our seasonal snow average in just one storm. I do not think this will be just a 3-6/4-8 incher for most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Fairly stunned at the negativity in the Metro... We had the King and its ensembles come aboard in a big way, and every other model held serve. The 18z gfs was a step down, sure, but not like it took the storm off the table. And there are still some prolific solutions, too. When the worst model solution is an off hour run that gives 8-12 for most, and the majority of posters are complaining, something's definitely amiss. I think we've been burned by the extreme solutions that haven't verified so are looking for everything that can go wrong. One word: Juno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Check out the differences in the NAM @ 24 hours compared to 30 hours from the 18z, the shortwave is stronger, 18z had no moisture of Arkansas @ this point, and the 00z has like almost an inch in that region, crazy difference for 24 hours out on a model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 If you're really in Belford, how much snow we're getting shouldn't be your primary concern. You might want to be brushing up on your backstroke. NWS is forecasting tidal departures of 8 feet or more. No, this is just wrong. They are calling for a departure of approx. 3' at Sandy Hook. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/etsurge/index.php?page=map®ion=ne&datum=msl&list=&map=0-48&type=&stn= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 i'm on board. there isn't a 3sd -nao to keep the confluence in place this time and latent heat release should pump the ridge enough for usThis just made my night. Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Foxman30 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 @moderator - can you help me with an approved post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 i'm on board. there isn't a 3sd -nao to keep the confluence in place this time and latent heat release should pump the ridge enough for us Pumped to have u on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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