SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The JMA I think is respectable though I don't follow it much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Do the JMA and NAVGEM run at the same time, and are they related to eachother or two totally different models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmcrae66 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The JMA I think is respectable though I don't follow it much JMA was the 1st model to catch onto a big one a few years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Do the JMA and NAVGEM run at the same time, and are they related to eachother or two totally different models? Both 18z - The JMA is the Japanese model... The NAVGEM is the US Navy Global, so yeah, they're different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Is the JMA not seeing the confluence or is it just weaker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Jma and Navgam, are they good for anything ever? The JMA was good for 2/12/06. The NAVGEM is good for nothing. I think it was originally made for tropical systems but sucked at that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Both 18z - The JMA is the Japanese model... The NAVGEM is the US Navy Global, so yeah, they're different Intertesting, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 JMA was the 1st model to catch onto a big one a few years ago.10 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Jma was one of the first to show a major snow storm 5 days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The JMA was good for 2/12/06. The NAVGEM is good for nothing. I think it was originally made for tropical systems but sucked at that too.Live and learn. I had no idea JMA had anything to offer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 18z JMA is a crusher, lol. Brings precip up to SNH but it's an northern outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 How was the Ukie today? Zero mentions. Was it still south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 JMA does suck, BUT it has shown some skill at sniffing out big east coast storms. Would not rely on its fine detail versus the other global models. That said, I'd rather have it go north rather than south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 How was the Ukie today? Zero mentions. Was it still south? This was it's location at 96 hours. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=12&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=120&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=096 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 I just checked the soundings from the 18Z GFS. I only checked for my location, but they are showing all snow here from that run verbatim. Just to clear that up. Here is HR 78 for example. 18_GFS_078.png any places east of you that you can check? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 ensemble means are useless in an all or nothing situation like this. members with 0 bring down the mean very quickly The vast majority of members show less than .5" QPF for KLGA. There are multiple members that show almost 0". Only a handful show a warning-level snowfall. On Monday, nearly all showed a major snowstorm for NYC. That should be alarming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 18ZJMA78.gif Now that's a thing of absolute beauty. Almost looks like a CCB even though I doubt this storm has a traditional one. At least not up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 The vast majority of members show less than .5" QPF for KLGA. There are multiple members that show almost 0". Only a handful show a warning-level snowfall. On Monday, nearly all showed a major snowstorm for NYC. That should be alarming. Since then they have been southeast. Op runs were alot better than the ensembles with the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaEasternWX Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 One more thing, I don't know if it was noted but you know how you guys said that on the GFS 18z PHL taints aka mixes. Well I went on Coolwx and found this. It looks like KPHL stays all snow which is good. So should this be trusted over the precip maps like on tropical tidbits because they did show GFS tainting philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Interesting read about Blizzard of 1996. The models were originally too progressive and threat area had to slowly be moved into the NYC area. Uncertainties in the storm track, noted in the medium-range guidance from several days earlier, continued with the shorter range guidance that was produced on Friday, January 5, and Saturday, January 6. Relatively small shifts in the storm track often cause large changes in the weather in certain critical areas, and this storm was no exception. As the weekend progressed and the storm began to track further north and west, the numerical and HPC guidance began to shift the forecast of the outer edge of the snow shield further north and west. This placed additional areas under the threat of heavy snow, including much of Ohio, northern Pennsylvania, southern New York, and more of southern and central New England. Forecasters in these areas had to play "catch up" by issuing Winter Storm Warnings with shorter lead times and forecasts with increased snowfall amounts. source: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/assessments/pdfs/bz-mrg.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Interesting read about Blizzard of 1996. The models were originally too progressive and threat area had to slowly be moved into the NYC area. source: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/assessments/pdfs/bz-mrg.pdf In theory, the models should be better than they were 20 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 In theory, the models should be better than they were 20 years ago.Tell that to the Euro OP re: January 2015. Full-on blizzard then under 12 hours merely flurries for my area. Sometimes I wonder how much of an improvement we truly have made. Certainly some, but there are clearly still major discrepancies/errors at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 In theory, the models should be better than they were 20 years ago. In theory yes, but never underestimate a dynamic system like this. It will certainly have a few tricks up its sleeves. Just hoping it lays down some good ones right in the NYC metro! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acvyse Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Remember, a model is a SIMPLIFIED version of atmospheric circulation. Mother nature will always prevail no matter how you look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 SREFS.... If anyone cares. VG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Srefs are real good. 1.50 for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/dougsimo/SREFNE24Precip21087.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 In theory, the models should be better than they were 20 years ago. Computer power definitely increased and observation network expanded for data sampling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Srefs! Very juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 21, 2016 Share Posted January 21, 2016 Srefs! Very juicy. So 21z is quite a bit more ampe d than 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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