Sn0waddict Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The low literally goes SE starting hour 84, nothing good is going to happen if it can't come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Interesting tweet and graphic by Dan Leonard, he said the EPS is also showing a crazy sharp cutoff but it can't resolve the northern part of the QPF cutoff. Says the northern part of the QPF is overdone, south of the cutoff line, it's underdone. So there is pretty good support for the NAM/GFS/CMC idea. Here is the tweet and graphic for you guys to read: https://mobile.twitter.com/DanLeonard_wx/status/689913768634118144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Now the EURO has become the highest for the area... go figure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Latest gfs, really does look to give Suffolk higher amounts if the colors are what I'm seeing. SW Suffolk County sure, the North fork doesn't get much at all between the taint and precip passing to the South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The low literally goes SE starting hour 84, nothing good is going to happen if it can't come north.Was in middle of saying that.. on the bright side, the obscene of low is well shown and no double barrel showed up. Be interesting to see where we go from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I could be wrong, hope I am wrong but you can see how with each passing run, the globals are becoming more and more progressive. Despite the low cutting off, the base of the ridge is flattening which allows the ULL to slip East instead of stalling near the Delmarva like it was doing this time yesterday. I am fairly certain that this a direct result of the strong El Nino flow which is sending another piece of energy right into the Pacific which is causing the ridge out West to collapse. Unless something drastically changes I think this one is mostly a miss, even for the coast. The flow is just too progressive and you can see it becoming more and more so with each passing run. The strong Nino wins again. The 18z GFS pretty much matches up with the 12z GEFS mean. That would certainly be a heart breaker for many if that is indeed the case, I think its a bit premature to say that is happening and it would be a miss but I guess it is one of the things in the realm of possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acvyse Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Interesting tweet and graphic by Dan Leonard, he said the EPS is also showing a crazy sharp cutoff but it can't resolve the northern part of the QPF cutoff. Says the northern part of the QPF is overdue, south of the cutoff line, it's underdone. So there is pretty good support for the NAM/GFS/CMC idea. Here is the tweet and graphic for you guys to read: https://mobile.twitter.com/DanLeonard_wx/status/689913768634118144 That is all heresay. I can't even figure out what he is saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 SW Suffolk County sure, the North fork doesn't get much at all between the taint and precip passing to the South. I simplify was referring to Suffolk as a whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 If things trend south with the 0z suite, I think this will be a mostly Trenton and south storm like Feb 2010. The confluence isn't overly strong like it was then but it's still there, and the closed off low digging too much and being nudged east out to sea could still kill NYC's chances. Right now they're just on the right side of the heavy snow line but there is still time for shifts either way. I-84 and north I'd say is more likely out than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Now the EURO has become the highest for the area... go figure Exactly why people need to stop focusing on each and every model run as if that's what's going to happen. We have seen all the major models trend up down to each other and switch. Take the blend every time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 LI jackpot now...just another solution... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 In reality the GFS/NAM are about 25 miles apart.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Good hit from EWR South and East. Things are developing too late and the system is kicking East too quickly.So hi-res with capture signals vs globals that attempt a capture but shoot the slp east. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 With this run of the GFS, High Point gets a dusting lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 How's it possible that low goes southeast instead of NE? I've never seen that. Can a met explain what's causing that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 These maps are pretty useless for LI unless you really think it will rain in Northport while the barrier beach gets hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The models are going in different directions. The Euro has been trending stronger and northerly. The GFS is trending the opposite direction in both respects it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I could be wrong, hope I am wrong but you can see how with each passing run, the globals are becoming more and more progressive. Despite the low cutting off, the base of the ridge is flattening which allows the ULL to slip East instead of stalling near the Delmarva like it was doing this time yesterday. I am fairly certain that this a direct result of the strong El Nino flow which is sending another piece of energy right into the Pacific which is causing the ridge out West to collapse. Unless something drastically changes I think this one is mostly a miss, even for the coast. The flow is just too progressive and you can see it becoming more and more so with each passing run. The strong Nino wins again. The 18z GFS pretty much matches up with the 12z GEFS mean. The 18z isn't that different from yesterday's runs... NE NJ, NYC, and LI, are all in a decent spot for this. Also the last storm that grazed us last weekend came a good bit north on the models in the preceding 36 hours and even 12 hours. Not saying that it will jump north but it shows that things can still change a lot at the last moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 We go thru the same thing every big storm scenario....0z decent hit with a north tick, 6z good hit qpf shrinks to north, 12z huge hit everyone happy, 18z south tick only 10" (rolleyes) everyone jumps off gw bridge, 0z tick north big hit, wash rinse repeat. I still think things are a go. These are minor run-to-run fluctuations....noise imho. When conservative posters like PB and Don S are barking, its a good bet they are onto something. I understand the concern but Ive yet to see a solid trend one way or the other....I mean a "consistent trend". Relax folks, you will get your weekend snows. And quite frankly there is still plenty of time to go to fine tune things. Hang in there....and not by a noose. See ya's for 0z :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I don't normally post about this sort of thing but I thought it was worth mentioning. Bernie Rayno in his latest video (pre 18z GFS) makes a pretty good case on why he thinks this could come North. 1) With around 72 hours to go the odds of the models having nailed this perfectly are quite slim. 2) The old school rule about a system exiting the coast at the same latitude that it entered. Oregon and Northern CA would mean an exit right around the NJ coast. 3) While there is some confluence to the North, it's fairly weak. Nothing is really there to force things to the South. This is simply a result of the energy digging further South than ideal and then ULL moving due East instead of Northeast. So with all that being said, if you consider the odds of the modeling having nailed the storm at this range and then decide does it make more sense for the shift to come North or to the South? I think the setup would favor a Northerly shift. He did mention that if the ULL moves due East like currently shown then it would be game, set, match for SNE. My previous concerns remain. I think the reason why the ULL moves due East is because of the pattern becoming more progressive as a result of the Nino rather than the system trying to come North and hitting a wall so to speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 How's it possible that low goes southeast instead of NE? I've never seen that. Can a met explain what's causing that? There is a SW hitting the W coast at the same time . It dampens the height rises on the EC and the system can only get so far N before it heads E . As the EC system encounters the confluence and occludes it gets shunted E . Is that at the mouth of the Chesapeake bay , AC or Belmar ? That is a huge difference as to where that N edge gets before the shield pivots . The models have to still figure out ( they are getting close ) where this occludes and where the confluence will shave the N fringe of this off . 50 miles may be the difference between a foot of snow and a dusting . The mean on the 12z EPS at KNYC is 12 inches . There are members in the cluster than are very far SE . One could assume that is skewing this to a degree . But that said KNYC is not in the clear . We all watched in 2010 a gradient that to this day makes me sick .That may play itself out again Sat here . ( It will somewhere ) . Except this time I hope I am far enough S , but there are no guarantees in this hobby ( job for some ) . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 We go thru the same thing every big storm scenario....0z decent hit with a north tick, 6z good hit qpf shrinks to north, 12z huge hit everyone happy, 18z south tick only 10" (rolleyes) everyone jumps off gw bridge, 0z tick north big hit, wash rinse repeat. I still think things are a go. These are minor run-to-run fluctuations....noise imho. When conservative posters like PB and Don S are barking, its a good bet they are onto something. I understand the concern but Ive yet to see a solid trend one way or the other....I mean a "consistent trend". Relax folks, you will get your weekend snows. And quite frankly there is still plenty of time to go to fine tune things. Hang in there....and not by a noose. See ya's for 0z :-) I just think the GFS is having problems with handling of the confluence; if you look at the 500 mb maps they are getting better with each ensuing run. Yet its not reflected at the surface. The Euro had that problem then finally figured it out at 12z hence the big jump north. The Euro ensembles were north of the OP and I expect a jog north tonight. Will the GFS finally get its act together at 0z? Who knows. The GFS always seems to be late at the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 There is a SW hitting the W coast at the same time . It dampens the height rises on the EC and the system can only get so far N before it heads E . So the EC system encounters the confluence and occludes and gets shunted E . is that at the mouth of the Chesapeake bay , AC or Belmar ? That is a huge difference as to where that N edge gets before the shield pivots . The models have to still figure out ( they are getting close ) where this occludes and where the confluence will shave the N fringe of this off . 50 miles may be the difference between a foot of snow and a dusting . The mean on the 12z EPS at KNYC is 12 inches . There are members in the cluster than are very far SE . One could assume that is skewing this to a degree . But that said KNYC is not in the clear . We all watched in 2010 a gradient that to this day makes me sick .That may play itself out again Sat here . ( it will somewhere ) . Except this time I hope I am far enough S , but there are no guarantees in this hobby ( job for some ) . NYC was already done at this point in 2010 72 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NYC was already done at this point in 2010 72 hours outTo be honest that's not true. Even the day before we were expected atleast 6 inches. We got flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 To be honest that's not true. Even the day before we were expected atleast 6 inches. We got flurries I want to say only the GFS showed that, the NAM had it mostly south and so did the euro. It was just that most felt the gradient wouldn't end up nearly that sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 To be honest that's not true. Even the day before we were expected atleast 6 inches. We got flurries I got 2 inches while my aunt in SI got 8 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 To be honest that's not true. Even the day before we were expected atleast 6 inches. We got flurries Didn't parts of Staten Island receive a few inches in the 2010 "event"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NYC was already done at this point in 2010 72 hours out The 700mb field here is further N and the EPS may be handling the entire evolution better ( my hope ) . I just remember sitting on Long Island watching the radar saying this is what it feels like to live in the GLs and watch24 pile up 10 mins N of you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NYC was already done at this point in 2010 72 hours out Can you please elaborate and compare to this situation????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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