Dhaulagiri1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 PDI had a similar gradient too. That's just silly (meaning the NAM), it makes 2010 look like a long smooth gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Nam is wobbling back and forth-12z had it up to the CT/MA border... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaPo Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The NAM did slightly run with the double barrel low idea that the 12z GFS, GEM, and EURO had. Something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I thought you said not to look at the NAM model until Friday. I hope it nails this too, granted it stays the same for MBY. Do you think it was plausible for the low to jog SW late in the run? Really screws northern zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'd rather be in Long Beach than north of I-84 for this storm so far, for sure. They aren't out of the woods yet, but if models tonight and tomorrow 12z don't shift in their favor, I'd say they're done for anything more than a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Confluence looks much weaker to me on the GFS, still early tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'd rather be in Long Beach than north of I-84 for this storm so far, for sure. They aren't out of the woods yet, but if models tonight and tomorrow 12z don't shift in their favor, I'd say they're done for anything more than a few inches.Given the sharp gradient forecasts, a few flakes rather than a few inches is more likely up here. Yeah, I know, you are glad you don't live where I do.... Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Confluence looks much weaker to me on the GFS, still early tho The confluence that matters should show up around 60 hours north of New England. That needs to be further north or weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Good lord, what a gradient. Is this even possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 the nam nailed feb 5 2010 Indeed. I remember that happening and thinking that can't possibly be correct since it's the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Confluence has been weaker a lot lately on runs but that has not translated to more snow up here yet. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This gradient reminds me so much the storm of 2010 it's scary. I am is sw CT and the map is almost identical to 2010. We received 8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 UPTON UPDATE 000 FXUS61 KOKX 202129 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 429 PM EST WED JAN 20 2016 .SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES EARLY THIS EVENING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY THEN BUILDS EAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE SOUTH THEN SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MULTIPLE COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS PRECEDING THE FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS SOME LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FEATURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THE SUB CLOUD LAYER IS VERY DRY AND WILL LIKELY ONLY SUPPORT SOME FLURRIES. WEAK COLD ADVECTION ENSUES WITH THE PASSING OF THE DISTURBANCE. ON THU...WEAK RIDGING BUILDS EAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET SENDING ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WITH A CONTINUED FEED OF POLAR AIR. IN FACT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL CANADA WILL BEGIN TO BLEED EAST NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES LAYING DOWN THE FOUNDATION FOR COLD AIR AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE TN VALLEY THU NIGHT. HIGHS ON THU WILL BE A BIT COOLER IN THE LOW TO MID 30S...WITH LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S BOTH THU AND FRI MORNINGS. THIS IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... CONTINUE TO MONITOR A COASTAL LOW THAT WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THIS WEEKEND. QUESTIONS STILL REMAIN ON THE EXACT TRACK...BOTH IN TERMS OF HOW FAR NORTH THE STORM GOES AND TIMING...AND STRENGTH OF THE STORM. ESPECIALLY NOTING REGION WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD OF THE STORM...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BY FRIDAY MORNING...THEN TRACKS EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE STORM SYSTEM THEN TOTAL OCCLUDES AS IT TRACKS TO THE SOUTH AND MAYBE SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND INTO SUNDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON THE PACE AT WHICH THE CUT OFF LOW AND THEN OCCLUSION TRACK TO THE EAST NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING/STRENGTH/PLACEMENT OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW. WHAT THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON IS THAT A 1030 HPA HIGH BUILDS INTO S QUEBEC/ONTARIO BY 12Z SATURDAY...AND THAT THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY STRONG AS IT RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST TO KEEP A SUPPLY OF LOW LEVEL COLD AIR FEEDING DOWN INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE STORM. AS A RESULT...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY MIXING WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL SNOW DURING THE EVENT. THE MODELS HAVE IN GENERAL SLOWED DOWN THE TIMING WITH THE SYSTEM. IT APPEARS THAT RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO KEEP THINGS DRY FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING...WITH SNOW DEVELOPING FROM SW TO NE FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN THEN THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW RAPIDLY SNOW PUSHES NE INTO THE CWA...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY THAT MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE CWA DOES NOT RECEIVE ANY SNOWFALL UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT THE STORM WILL BRING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION INTO ALL BUT NORTHERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TRI- STATE...SO HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL ON SATURDAY IN THOSE AREAS. SATURDAY NIGHT HAVE LIKELY POPS EVERYWHERE...TAPERING OFF TO CHANCE OVER FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPPER OFF OVER MOST AREAS SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER DO LINGER SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN 2/5THS OF THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IS ALSO INCREASING IN THE IDEA THAT MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...WHERE RAIN MIXING IN COULD LIMIT AMOUNTS. FARTHER NORTH...IT IS BECOMING MORE CERTAIN THAT AN ADVISORY LEVEL (3-6 INCH RANGE) SNOWFALL SHOULD OCCUR...EXCEPT FOR ACROSS FAR N PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY/SW CT...WHERE 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS STILL IN QUESTION...BUT DEFINITELY POSSIBLE. EVEN IN THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA...WARNING LEVEL SNOWS ARE STILL WITHIN THE REASONABLE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES FOR THIS SYSTEM. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...AND THAT MOST...IF NOT ALL THE SNOW WILL NOT START FALLING UNTIL SATURDAY...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WITH THIS ISSUANCE. NEXT ISSUE WITH THIS STORM WILL BE THE WINDS. WITH 950-850 HPA WINDS OF 45-60 KT FORECAST FROM AREAS AROUND LONG ISLAND SOUND AND MOST OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS (SUSTAINED WINDS 31-39 MPH FOR AT LEAST ONE HOUR OR ANY GUST OF 46-57 MPH) COULD OCCUR WITH THIS STORM IN THIS AREA...FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT WIND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS COULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE THAT HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA COULD BE REACHED OVER PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND AND POSSIBLY NYC AND COASTAL SE CT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THOUGH OVER THE TRACK/TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE STORM...HAVE DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE ANY WIND RELATED HEADLINES WITH THIS STORM. WITH THESE WINDS AND THE EXPECTATION OF SNOWFALL...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL OVER AREAS RECEIVING MAINLY SNOWFALL AND ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY...AND COULD REFLECT IN ANY WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WHICH ARE ISSUED IN THE FUTURE. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY-SUNDAY SHOULD RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGHS. LOWS SHOULD RUN BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... RIDGING BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SFC BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THERE ARE THEN SOME DIFFERENCES THAT ARISE IN THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH THE PHASING OF PAC SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET. THE 12Z ECMWF VERSUS THE GFS IS MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH THE ENERGY AND SENDS THE LONGWAVE TROF TO THE EAST A BIT FASTER. THIS RESULTS IN TIMING ISSUES OF A THE MAIN COLD FRONT...WHICH PASSES ACROSS THE AREA TUE EVENING WITH THE ECWMF...WHILE THE GFS SENDS MULTIPLE WEAK COLD FRONTS THROUGH THE REGION TUE INTO WED. THE RETURN TO COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPS IS DELAYED BY ABOUT 24H WITH THE GFS. FOR THE TIME...USED A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND DELAYED THE THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR AS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF. DURING THIS TIME...TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AS FOR ANY PCPN...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT TRACKS NW OF THE AREA. FOR THE MOST PART...THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX INLAND. RIGHT NOW QPF AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE VERY LIGHT. && .AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. VFR INTO THIS EVENING. CHC FLURRIES AFTER AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. NW WINDS AROUND 10KT DIM 5-10KT THIS EVENING. ...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. .FRIDAY...VFR. .FRIDAY NIGHT...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW LATE. NE GUSTS 25KT LATE. .SAT/SAT NIGHT...SNOW DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING...POSSIBLY BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES WITH IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS. NE WINDS AT 20-30 KT WITH 40-50 KT GUSTS. .SUNDAY...CHC SUB-VFR AND SNOW AM. VFR PM. N GUSTS 25-30 KT. .MONDAY...VFR. && .MARINE... A PERSISTENT NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE OVER NE CANADA. GENERALLY SUB SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...BUT POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SCA CONDS ON OCEAN WATERS THURSDAY INTO THU NIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES SUPPORT WIND GUSTS JUST BELOW 25 KT...SO WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME ON ISSUING A SCA. A RELATIVELY RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS SHOULD PRODUCE WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS ON FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES FAIRLY RAPIDLY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH GALE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ON THE OCEAN AND SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH 950-850 WINDS INCREASING TO 50- 60KT OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...AND MARGINAL TO DECENT LOW LEVEL MIXING POSSIBLE...GUSTS TO STORM FORCE ARE LIKELY ON THE COASTAL OCEAN WATERS THEN...WITH GUSTS TO GALES LIKELY AND STORM FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE ON THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH SUNDAY AS THE STORM DEPARTS...WITH WINDS FALLING TO SMALL CRAFT LEVELS ON ALL...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN ZONES...BY LATE SUNDAY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOP BY SUN NIGHT WITH LINGERING HIGH SEAS POSSIBLE INTO MON MORNING. && .HYDROLOGY... NO MEASURABLE PRECIP EXPECTED TONIGHT-FRIDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FROM AROUND 4/10THS TO AROUND 1 INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT QPF TO FALL FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER LONG ISLAND/NEW YORK CITY AND LOWEST AMOUNTS OVER ORANGE COUNTY. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THESE AMOUNTS...WITH A CHANGE IN STORM TRACK OF EVEN 10-25 MILES POSSIBLY HAVING QUITE AN IMPACT ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF WHICH OCCURS. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A NOR`EASTER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE FOR PORTIONS OF THIS WEEKEND. THE MOST VULNERABLE HIGH TIDE WOULD BE THE SATURDAY NIGHT CYCLE. FOR SATURDAY MORNING STRENGTHENING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING. AROUND 1 1/2 TO 2 FT ANOMALIES ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL LEVELS ARE NEEDED. FOR MODERATE CSTL FLOODING...2 TO 3 FT ARE NEEDED. VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN MODERATE BENCHMARKS BEING REACHED IN THE MORNING. FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH TIDE CYCLE...ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS ARE ABOUT A HALF A FOOT LOWER THAT THE MORNING HIGH TIDES. HOWEVER...STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS THAT WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY WILL PILE WATER ALONG OUR SHORES...AND LARGE ANOMALIES ARE EXPECTED. AROUND 2 TO 2 1/2 FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR CSTL FLOODING...AND 3 TO 4 FT ABOVE ARE NEEDED FOR MODERATE CSTL FLOODING. AT THIS TIME...MAINLY MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING MAJOR FLOODING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN THIS OCCURRING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. BY SUNDAY MORNING...THE STORM WILL BE PULLING AWAY AND WINDS SHOULD BACK TO THE NORTH...WHICH IS NOT AN IDEAL WIND DIRECTION FOR COASTAL FLOODING. RESIDUAL CSTL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING...BUT STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT WITH LITTLE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ350. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/DW NEAR TERM...DW SHORT TERM...MALOIT LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...JC MARINE...MALOIT/DW HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/DW TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...PW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The trough is sharper on the 18z GFS which I think is a good sign. The trend at 12z was flatter which minimized heights from rising to the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dhaulagiri1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Confluence looks much weaker to me on the GFS, still early tho Shortwave over Maine at 48hr is almost non existent in this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'd rather be in Long Beach than north of I-84 for this storm so far, for sure. They aren't out of the woods yet, but if models tonight and tomorrow 12z don't shift in their favor, I'd say they're done for anything more than a few inches. I think this is really shaping up like 2/5-6/10 except this time we are on right side of the line. I think being in the far SW portion of the Upton area means it could be the south shore of nassuas time to shine And a good thing for us as well this only looks like a moderate coastal flood and beach erosion event. Flooded streets but not houses except maybe the lowest areas where many houses have been raised or condemed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This run is a little less progressive but the differences are minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The CCB is taking longer to develop which might not be good but it still looks good aloft so I wouldn't fret to much about QPF this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Wow Upton is being very conservative right now...3-6" for NYC metro. It's clear they will not be issuing any watches anytime soon, claiming that warning-level snowfall is within a "reasonable realm of possibility" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 PHL and south taints hard this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So upper levels look much better this run, low placement is better, but precip shield is still super compressed into tight gradient.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Very interesting reading through here. Amazing how this gradient grew so close together. Each side of some towns will have huge differences in totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Good hit from EWR South and East. Things are developing too late and the system is kicking East too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 sharp cutoff once again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So upper levels look much better this run, low placement is better, but precip shield is still super compressed into tight gradient.... Yeah, but looking at 700, youd have to think there would be more NW precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I could be wrong, hope I am wrong but you can see how with each passing run, the globals are becoming more and more progressive. Despite the low cutting off, the base of the ridge is flattening which allows the ULL to slip East instead of stalling near the Delmarva like it was doing this time yesterday. I am fairly certain that this a direct result of the strong El Nino flow which is sending another piece of energy right into the Pacific which is causing the ridge out West to collapse. Unless something drastically changes I think this one is mostly a miss, even for the coast. The flow is just too progressive and you can see it becoming more and more so with each passing run. The strong Nino wins again. The 18z GFS pretty much matches up with the 12z GEFS mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Here's why Philly mixes. Check out those wind speeds off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Latest gfs, really does look to give Suffolk higher amounts if the colors are what I'm seeing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yeah, but looking at 700, youd have to think there would be more NW precip. The mid-level jet would need to stretch back towards State College like it had been showing. The problem is that the progressive flow is weakening the ULL and by the time things get cranking things are just a hair too far East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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