White Gorilla Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Wow... Not a flake north of 84 according to NAM. SMH. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This is going to be a big time nowcast event. Is a 50 miles shift north too much to ask.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acvyse Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Seems very reasonable to me at this stage. Agreed. I think 6-8 for Long Island is very reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Oh my goodness that's a 2010 style gradient just 50-75 miles further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 20 mile difference between paradise and slitting your wrists Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This gradient reminds me so much the storm of 2010 it's scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm in Northern Essex Co. so I'm in the cool club... But again, this is the NAM so take it FWIW at this range... little. But a gradient like that wouldn't shock me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Why such a gradient? I thought the confluence is weakening. Sent from my SM-N910V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I cannot believe the insane cutoff on these models... 2+ feet, 50 miles north 0 lmao I was trying to tell you last night when you discounted the GGEM's cutoff that this was very possible. It now looks very likely to occur, its just a matter of where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Nam also looks too have trouble figuring out where the low placement will be from hour 72 to end of its cycle... Talk about confusing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm in Northern Essex Co. so I'm in the cool club... But again, this is the NAM so take it FWIW at this range... little. But a gradient like that wouldn't shock me. agreed regarding this NAM... but a gradient like the EURO, EPS and GFS aren't as sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm thinking models will define the gradient over the next few cycles and increase QPF for those inside where very intense banding will occur. A shift of up to 50 miles N or S seems reasonable regarding where it'll set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Verbatim 18-20 inches for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm in Northern Essex Co. so I'm in the cool club... But again, this is the NAM so take it FWIW at this range... little. But a gradient like that wouldn't shock me. If you believe in the nam gradient, you should shave off like 25% of the snowfall as well. NAM loves to overdue QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm thinking models will define the gradient over the next few cycles and increase QPF for those inside where very intense banding will occur. A shift of up to 50 miles N or S seems reasonable regarding where it'll set up. It does seem tho, that the last few models have picked up on the strength of the confluence in the north. That sharp gradient is becoming more and more defined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e46and2 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 absolutely sick for a 3 hour interval. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That image does not seem to be quite as sharp of a cutoff.... idk to me looks like around 10-12 in HPN area? Am I correct?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 If you believe in the nam gradient, you should shave off like 25% of the snowfall as well. NAM loves to overdue QPF Not necessarily, the lift will be insane just South of the cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It does seem tho, that the last few models have picked up on the strength of the confluence in the north. That sharp gradient is becoming more and more defined. The models did this in February 2010 too. I remember model runs right up to the event that nailed the gradient and people discounted it as not possible even as the event began. The good news now is this is still a few days out and can move north (or south) but its definitely late in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That image does not seem to be quite as sharp of a cutoff.... idk to me looks like around 10-12 in HPN area? Am I correct?? i am one town away from you. That's what it shows for us. if I was going to make a call on the for the afternoon guidence, I would call it a 4-8, or a 5-10 type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
e46and2 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Agreed. I think 6-8 for Long Island is very reasonable. if you feel that way, you must think the storm is going to pass fairly SE of us and spare the rest of the area, no? Surely you can;t be seeing mixing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That's an exceptional cutoff on the NAM. It's almost like the February 2010 storm. http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/snow/nesis/20100204-20100207-4.38.jpg Is the NAM overdoing the confluence? Even the 12z ECMWF didn't feature such a sharp gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 i am one town away from you. That's what it shows for us. if I was going to make a call on the for the afternoon guidence, I would call it a 4-8, or a 5-10 type deal. Yea agreed.... I'll take that any day!! We only need a 5-10 mile north push to get 10-15 crazy!!!! Hopefully the push is more than that to benefit areas north of 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Doesnt even look like the column fully saturates on the Nam. 850s only make it through central jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 the nam nailed feb 5 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That's an exceptional cutoff on the NAM. It's almost like the February 2010 storm. http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/snow/nesis/20100204-20100207-4.38.jpg Is the NAM overdoing the confluence? Even the 12z ECMWF didn't feature such a sharp gradient. Yea a sharp gradient like that almost seems rare and unheard of but I guess it is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 the nam nailed feb 5 2010 I was about to post that, it's the only storm ever I recall it getting dead on and it never wavered from 84 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 PDI had a similar gradient too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 the nam nailed feb 5 2010 It did. I remember it well being on Staten Island at the time and it had many runs leading up that had SI as the dividing line between snow and no snow which wound up being pretty freaking accurate. Not saying it will nail this but it is something to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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