IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Not liking the h5 setup as much, further south & the trough seems to be closer to a neutral tilt than negative @42 The key here is that the confluence is weaker again, and the trough is digging further because the ridge out West is stronger which is leading to a less progressive solution. That should allow for both a stronger system and one that is able to come North over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The key here is that the confluence is weaker again, and the trough is digging further because the ridge out West is stronger which is leading to a less progressive solution. That should allow for both a stronger system and one that is able to come North over time. Granted, it's the NAM at its most extended range, but that sounds similar to the gradual tick north of the 12/19/09 storm. Small, previously-underforecasted, late-to-the-party WC ridge saved the day for some of us. Am I remembering it correctly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dhaulagiri1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Not liking the h5 setup as much, further south & the trough seems to be closer to a neutral tilt than negative @42 Less confluence over NE? I'm digging 500 mb myself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I don't consider Juno to be a miss for NYC. 10" in Central Park and much more 30 miles east isn't a miss. 2/6/10 is a closer analog to this than that storm was. Huge Miller A loaded with Gulf moisture that ran into dry sinking air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Exactly it wasn't a whiff, but how we got there wasn't as planned either. We had that band of overrunning snow that sat right over the city and dumped 5" before the main precip shield. So we really only had 5" with the main show The good news is this is a completely different scenario with much better model agreement going way back We could easily bust high and watch Boston squirm and smoke cirrus I heard Long Beach had about 15" from Juno. Definitely nothing I would complain about, although it wasn't 24"+ like what was predicted there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Eps is north. Gives nyc a foot of snow. Sorry if this was already posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Less confluence over NE? I'm digging 500 mb myself It does appear to be relaxed... I only wish that damn disturbance in Maine would kick out of there sooner. But she's definitely amped a bit more which could help later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This run is trouble for the greater nyc metro by hour 60 the precip shield already shifts so far east and hasn't even made it to ACY, not a good sign regardless or what the nam shows hours 66 and on It does appear to be relaxed... I only wish that damn disturbance in Maine would kick out of there sooner. But she's definitely amped a bit more which could help later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Positive changes on NAM thus far. System a bit further NE of 12z location, winds more ENE than E at hr60 which will help coastal sections with the mixing/rain issues. PS got 30" from Juno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triniiphone Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 WSWatches up by Mt. Holly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Hour 96 on eps lows stronger but also slight south of last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Like Forky said, I wouldn't worry about the NAM until Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Lol nam jumps east at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Please not only through 7pm SAT not the entire event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That is only til Saturday 7am. Still plenty of snow to come. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Lol nam jumps east at 72 Isn't that basically in agreement with other models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Lol nam jumps east at 72 Not really, it then pivots SW from 72 to 78. But it's the NAM so who cares... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acvyse Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That is only til Saturday 7am. Still plenty of snow to come. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Ending at 7 PM saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Lol nam jumps east at 72 Seems like to me it is NE... idk could be wrong..... the LOW does not move much at all from 66 through 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Not really, it then pivots SW from 72 to 78. But it's the NAM so who cares... Just had frame 72.. Looked like to was going the GFS route Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadowsintherain Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Ending at 7 PM saturday My bad. Then it's very wrong. LolSent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM crushes NYC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Isn't that basically in agreement with other models? NYC gets absolutely bombed on the NAM. Key thing to watch IMO is the progression of the overrunning snows... if they reach you by the time the thing stops coming north and pivots, you're in good shape (and may get buried)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAM looks like ~ 15-25" in N/C NJ while 10 miles north of the NJ/NY border has next to nothing... From Rt.80 and South this is a QPF bomb...2-3" QPF with no mixing issues....still snowing heavily in N/C NJ at hour 84... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
acvyse Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 My bad. Then it's very wrong. Lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Who says? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I cannot believe the insane cutoff on these models... 2+ feet, 50 miles north 0 lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 My bad. Then it's very wrong. Lol Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Seems very reasonable to me at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Good lord, what a gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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