SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 SREFS drop a mean of .54 LE by HR 84... With the a max possibility of 1.8"!!! Lol the storms not even hitting hard up here at 84 lol, the city would be buried if that verified Nice too bad they're not going to be reliable for another 24-36 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Isn't the key with the SREFs to analyze the trends? They'll throw out some fantasy numbers, but I always thought the point was to look for positive trends a few days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Isn't the SREF always amped? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Isn't the key with the SREFs to analyze the trends? They'll throw out some fantasy numbers, but I always thought the point was to look for positive trends a few days out. Trends have no value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Really? 75 mile shift means NYC gets nothing. "Minimum" for NYC is 0.0.The chances of a total shutout (0.0 snow) in NYC are now extremely slim. The models would have started hinting at it by now. Unless the EPS shows something crazy in the next half hour, it's pretty much a given that NYC sees an accumulating snow between Friday night and Sunday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Isn't the SREF always amped? Yes you have to follow trend, not actual LE, They were far less wet on most members at 09z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 the eps is further north with the precip edge than the euro op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The chances of a total shutout (0.0 snow) in NYC are now extremely slim. The models would have started hinting at it by now. Unless the EPS shows something crazy in the next half hour, it's pretty much a given that NYC sees an accumulating snow between Friday night and Sunday morning Dude, you have not been following these for many years then. A 75 mile shift is par for the f---ing course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 the eps is further north with the precip edge than the euro opThat's good news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 the eps is further north with the precip edge than the euro op That's good news since the euro came north significantly on the Op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Have to agree with DRZ. We were forecast to receive 2-3' of snow last year and basically whiffed on the main event. We are by no means "safe" at this point, regardless of what the models say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That's good news since the euro came north significantly on the Op Yes very much so.... means that there is definitely room for improvement more to the North. Any maps for the EPS out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Nams digging more This run again... Stronger Already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Have to agree with DRZ. We were forecast to receive 2-3' of snow last year and basically whiffed on the main event. We are by no means "safe" at this point, regardless of what the models say. Long Island is a safer bet to see snow, more so then NYC if it trended south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Have to agree with DRZ. We were forecast to receive 2-3' of snow last year and basically whiffed on the main event. We are by no means "safe" at this point, regardless of what the models say. I think people are traumatized over that event. That was an extremely rare goof. Sure it can happen again but it's not likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Have to agree with DRZ. We were forecast to receive 2-3' of snow last year and basically whiffed on the main event. We are by no means "safe" at this point, regardless of what the models say. Did not have model consensus for 2-3' though... NWS bit and paid the price. Here we have less spread in the solutions. Not that I'm debating whether or not we could whiff, but I think a total whiff for NYC is becoming highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Long Island is a safer bet to see snow, more so then NYC if it trended south. You're all the way out on the North fork correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I think people are traumatized over that event. That was an extremely rare goof. Sure it can happen again but it's not likely. we've seen good busts of 75 miles as well . . . 75 miles is basically within the margin of error for a forecast 12 hours before the first snow hits the ground. Let alone 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Have to agree with DRZ. We were forecast to receive 2-3' of snow last year and basically whiffed on the main event. We are by no means "safe" at this point, regardless of what the models say. Queens received 12" for that storm. If 12" is whiffed, you need help. NYC received 9"-12" as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 You're all the way out on the North fork correct? This is true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Also euro ENS are much stronger ULL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Nams digging more This run again... Stronger Already It dug a lot deeper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Nams gonna really strong.. ULL is gonna be MUCH stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Is that good news or bad news for snow lovers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 worry about the NAM friday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It's slower that's for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BobbyHolikWillFindYou Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Nearly 100% probability of Tropical Storm force winds....yeesh https://twitter.com/MikeMasco/status/689902877129773056 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Lows slower, but precip shield is more expansive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 worry about the NAM friday morning Not liking the h5 setup as much, further south & the trough seems to be closer to a neutral tilt than negative @42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Queens received 12" for that storm. If 12" is whiffed, you need help. NYC received 9"-12" as well. Exactly it wasn't a whiff, but how we got there wasn't as planned either. We had that band of overrunning snow that sat right over the city and dumped 5" before the main precip shield. So we really only had 5" with the main show The good news is this is a completely different scenario with much better model agreement going way back We could easily bust high and watch Boston squirm and smoke cirrus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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