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Jan 23/24 Major Coastal Storm Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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Exactly this. It's strange, but I guess it doesn't dig enough to have enough energy to last and get captured? It's looking like we cant have both. It's either going to set up south, get captured and pummell everyone or set up further north but kick east out to sea before being captured.

It's because the ULL got stronger but the confluence was also a little stronger. So there is more precip but it cant advance as far north.

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I would only add that we have 72 hours until the event is truly underway; thus, snowfall maps and LE are not worth more than a minute or two of anyone's time, and even low placement may verify 100 miles other than the models today show even if they were in perfect agreement, and they are NOT by any measure. 

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Exactly this. It's strange, but I guess it doesn't dig enough to have enough energy to last and get captured? It's looking like we cant have both. It's either going to set up south, get captured and pummell everyone or set up further north but kick east out to sea before being captured.

 

To my amateur eye, it seems like a contest between the strength and positioning of both the ULL and the confluence.  Euro trended in our favor with respect to the former, but against us with respect to the latter.  The result: Storm begins trekking further north and then gets squashed underneath the confluence.  That's also likely what accounts for the still-steep gradient.

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Just an observation looking at 700mb. The winds are so much weaker on both the GFS and the Euro than what they were at 00z, which could be why the NW side of the CCB isn't developing as much as previous runs. That, and the energy associated with the ULL is weaker which could be due to the better sampling.

 

The band that does eventually develop thanks to the strong mid-level forcing could be causing some subsidence rather than the cause being confluence. 

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12Z GFS looks like 8-12" to me, unless there's a lot more snow after 10 am on Sunday. Am I missing something? Also, what's a "3-day QPF forecast?"

QPF is quantitative precipitation forecast. With global models (gfs/cmc/euro to a lesser extent), the QPF naps are notoriously bad. If you look at h5/h7 on the gfs, it's 12-24".

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk

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Somehow the euro came north, and far northern burbs get less snow than 00z (ala the east kick) can't win can we lol

 

We all know it'll come down to where those bands set up.  Someone thats happy now might end up very angry once those bands set up 10 miles to their south.  Why cant we have a classic one where NYC gets 15" and BGM gets a deserved 6".  This will be a true now cast nail biter for sure.

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12Z GFS looks like 8-12" to me, unless there's a lot more snow after 10 am on Sunday.  Am I missing something?  Also, what's a "3-day QPF forecast?"

 

Look, live by the clown map, die by the clown map.  The point of this is to compare the depiction to other analog storms from the past and from that, to figure out how much snow will fall.  You don't just take model QPF 72 hours in advance and put that into a list and expect it to have any informational value. 

 

If the GFS verified as depicted, NYC would end up with 1-2' of snow, since its on the snowy side of the cut-off.

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QPF is quantitative precipitation forecast. With global models (gfs/cmc/euro to a lesser extent), the QPF naps are notoriously bad. If you look at h5/h7 on the gfs, it's 12-24".

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk

 

 

I agree . This is not the last bump N IMO . S/STJ with that 700 mb field should allow more precip further N

Even as  it occludes SE of A/C there should be a better initial slug further N .

I think we maxed out in CNJ 2 plus , but I think there will be more water further N 

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I tend to think models are usually way too aggressive with the wind component of these kind of storms. I doubt any blizzard warning would verify outside of  extreme coastal sections. Without one of those mega highs in se Canada it's just difficult to see appreciable winds in the more inland locations.

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I tend to think models are usually way too aggressive with the wind component of these kind of storms. I doubt any blizzard warning would verify outside of  extreme coastal sections. Without one of those mega highs in se Canada it's just difficult to see appreciable winds in the more inland locations.

 

Well another thing to think about ... if the winds are not that strong then we can do better than 10:1 ratios which would help some of the lower QPF amounts.  I do also believe that this will be nudged further north tonight and tomorrow.  Should be a comfortable warning level snowfall from I-84 south. 

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Well another thing to think about ... if the winds are not that strong then we can do better than 10:1 ratios which would help some of the lower QPF amounts.  I do also believe that this will be nudged further north tonight and tomorrow.  Should be a comfortable warning level snowfall from I-84 south. 

 

Yeah with temps in upper 20's, a good amount of precip from the coastal and not a ton from overunning, I would say 12-13:1 might be the way to go away from immediate coast.

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Not liking the confluence placement to the NW on both the 12z Euro and GFS.

Wantagh should be just fine. If we use 2/5-6/10 as an example 30 miles to out south was a stationary 2-3" hour snow band. As it stands right now this time a similar type band could very well be over the south shore. I think we are in the sweet spot of the northern extent. This could be a rare occasion when the south shore does better then the north shore
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Whenever we have systems like this with sharp cut offs to the north it's hard not to get weary. Last time we had a sharp cutoff like this we expected 6-12 inches and got only flurries. Never gunna forget that day. The dry air just wouldn't let go. Would be wrong imo to forecast anything of confidence over 6 inches right now

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Yeah with temps in upper 20's, a good amount of precip from the coastal and not a ton from overunning, I would say 12-13:1 might be the way to go away from immediate coast.

 

Yea agreed, so for us that are 15-20 miles from NYC could also be beneficial to come away with around the same snow totals as the city with lesser QPF amounts.  I would rather say bye bye to the wind potential because not only would that help us but also lessen the impacts along the coast which they do not need.

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