psv88 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Wow, thats one hell of a cutoff on the Euro...jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 0Z KBLM 2.1 JFK 1.4 EWR 1.3 NYC 1.2 LHV .4 12Z KBLM 2.2 JFK 1.7 EWR 1.6 NYC 1.4 LHV .4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So now we have the NAM, GFS, GGEM, EURO for NYC-N/C NJ in the 1-2' camp within 2.5-3 days....game on! As Warlock said earlier, GFS is NOT 12-24" - it's 8-12" for the area you outlined. Looks better than 12Z yesterday and we're closer to the event, so the errors, by definition, almost have to be smaller, but we all know things can still go awry, especially with a very sharp gradient showing a lot less snow just 50-75 miles NW of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This could be a "revenge Juno" where Boston gets shafted and NYC gets a nice event. The models shifting to a sharp north cutoff isn't an accident. But 2/6/10 just 50 miles further north would have included millions more people in over 12" of snow. The confluence this time looks weaker than that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Well, this is better, but we still have the issue of the gradient falling right near us. There's still a good chance of getting whiffed here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 As Warlock said earlier, GFS is NOT 12-24" - it's 8-12" for the area you outlined. Looks better than 12Z yesterday and we're closer to the event, so the errors, by definition, almost have to be smaller, but we all know things can still go awry, especially with a very sharp gradient showing a lot less snow just 50-75 miles NW of I-95. GFS is not 8-12. Stop relying on 3 day QPF forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Talk about being on the edge, still like the trends though, it almost seems like the EURO is coming around to the other models. I also liked how the RGEM had less confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 an 20 12z Summary NYC: Snowfall projections NAM: great thru 84 - extrapolated looks 12-20 GFS: 7 - 11 GEFS GGEM: 15 - 22 GGEM ENS: 10 - 18 UKMET: ECM: 10 - 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 No paid maps guys cmon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 1-2" for my backyard lol .. Gotta love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What's hpn? To bdr? White plains to Bridgeport CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 No paid maps guys cmon One of the mods posted that we can post and they'll be deleted after a few minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The latest Euro is a good sign, but damn that's a sharp cutoff. A slight tick to the south or north could be the difference between 2 inches and 2 feet for someone. Upton has a longgg couple days ahead of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So overall this run was North or South? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The Euro's cutoff (as per the map) is insane. Passaic/Bergen Counties go from 12/13" - 3/4" as you get higher in elevation. Definitely don't see that everyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So overall this run was North or South?North for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYStorm Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So now we have the NAM, GFS, GGEM, EURO for NYC-N/C NJ in the 1-2' camp within 2.5-3 days....game on! I would point out that while the Euro trend is encouraging, you have to look back at the runs from the past couple of days. One run does not a forecast make. Let's see some run-to-run consistency. I wouldn't take this to the bank yet, although the 12z Euro trend is encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 So overall this run was North or South?North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 0Z KBLM 2.1 JFK 1.4 EWR 1.3 NYC 1.2 LHV .4 12Z KBLM 2.2 JFK 1.7 EWR 1.6 NYC 1.4 LHV .4 All snow my man or is there taint with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 North for sure Eh, it depends how you interperate it. The Low sets up a bit further north but kicks east and OTS earlier without getting captured. This results in a tighter gradient and less snow NW of NYC. So really, for all intents and purposes, its a more southern solution. Although I'm not sure I buy how quickly this thing kicks out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Is kblm belmar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I would point out that while the Euro trend is encouraging, you have to look back at the runs from the past couple of days. One run does not a forecast make. Let's see some run-to-run consistency. I wouldn't take this to the bank yet, although the 12z Euro trend is encouraging. The trend on the EURO has been north for a couple runs in a row now ... so it can be considered a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf316 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 how do winds look on the euro? also, did the euro have the same double-barreled look as the GFS and GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Somehow the euro came north, and far northern burbs get less snow than 00z (ala the east kick) can't win can we lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Another staple of monster storms is an even spread in precip amounts. The Euro leveled things off a bit in the mid-atlantic and upped amounts around our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 North for sure North Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 an 20 12z Summary NYC: Snowfall projections NAM: great thru 84 - extrapolated looks 12-20 GFS: 7 - 11 GEFS GGEM: 15 - 22 GGEM ENS: 10 - 18 UKMET: ECM: 10 - 18 Thank you for this post for setting the record straight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 All snow my man or is there taint with this? No taint . BL Upper 20`s warmest 850s -1 925s - 6 2.2 Zero issue . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Somehow the euro came north, and far northern burbs get less snow than 00z (ala the east kick) can't win can we lol Exactly this. It's strange, but I guess it doesn't dig enough to have enough energy to last and get captured? It's looking like we cant have both. It's either going to set up south, get captured and pummell everyone or set up further north but kick east out to sea before being captured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Lets just keep in perspective where this model was just 24 hours ago, compared to where it is now and that we still have over 48 hours to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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