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Jan 23/24 Major Coastal Storm Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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So now we have the NAM, GFS, GGEM, EURO for NYC-N/C NJ in the 1-2' camp within 2.5-3 days....game on!

As Warlock said earlier, GFS is NOT 12-24" - it's 8-12" for the area you outlined.  Looks better than 12Z yesterday and we're closer to the event, so the errors, by definition, almost have to be smaller, but we all know things can still go awry, especially with a very sharp gradient showing a lot less snow just 50-75 miles NW of I-95.  

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This could be a "revenge Juno" where Boston gets shafted and NYC gets a nice event. The models shifting to a sharp north cutoff isn't an accident. But 2/6/10 just 50 miles further north would have included millions more people in over 12" of snow. The confluence this time looks weaker than that time. 

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As Warlock said earlier, GFS is NOT 12-24" - it's 8-12" for the area you outlined.  Looks better than 12Z yesterday and we're closer to the event, so the errors, by definition, almost have to be smaller, but we all know things can still go awry, especially with a very sharp gradient showing a lot less snow just 50-75 miles NW of I-95.  

GFS is not 8-12.  Stop relying on 3 day QPF forecasts. 

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So now we have the NAM, GFS, GGEM, EURO for NYC-N/C NJ in the 1-2' camp within 2.5-3 days....game on!

I would point out that while the Euro trend is encouraging, you have to look back at the runs from the past couple of days. One run does not a forecast make. Let's see some run-to-run consistency. I wouldn't take this to the bank yet, although the 12z Euro trend is encouraging.

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North for sure

 

Eh, it depends how you interperate it. The Low sets up a bit further north but kicks east and OTS earlier without getting captured. This results in a tighter gradient and less snow NW of NYC. So really, for all intents and purposes, its a more southern solution.

 

Although I'm not sure I buy how quickly this thing kicks out of here.

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I would point out that while the Euro trend is encouraging, you have to look back at the runs from the past couple of days. One run does not a forecast make. Let's see some run-to-run consistency. I wouldn't take this to the bank yet, although the 12z Euro trend is encouraging.

 

The trend on the EURO has been north for a couple runs in a row now ... so it can be considered a trend.

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Somehow the euro came north, and far northern burbs get less snow than 00z (ala the east kick) can't win can we lol

 

Exactly this. It's strange, but I guess it doesn't dig enough to have enough energy to last and get captured? It's looking like we cant have both. It's either going to set up south, get captured and pummell everyone or set up further north but kick east out to sea before being captured.

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