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Jan 23/24 Major Coastal Storm Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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It's enough to hold the bulk of the precip south of us. Serious question: how far can mesoscale banding occur from the center of low pressure? Right now, pretty much all the guidance is outside the BM. If you look at the precip map, everything looks fine and dandy, but the upper air maps look very close to the Euro runs. Not sure how we're supposed to get a foot of snow if the low tracks due east of the Outer Banks.

 

According to several mets on this forum... the mid and upper levels looks just fine.  We need to see if the double barrel is going to rob some of the moisture.  I know your trying to keep all options open at this point but you seem to be being a little nit picky here.  Even with that depiction on the GFS and GGEM we still get a lot of snow... Idk what the issue is here

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Long Island looks good too I believe I think we're going see a middle ground of the extreme north coast running gfs and the south Carolina Euro solution.

 

Models are coming in much much colder today, most of the island looks to remain all snow, and those who do change over will flip back rather quickly. 

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No one is fine or not fine.  There will be a sharp gradient  and a ton (1-2') of snow south of that gradient, a very narrow zone  (could be 10-20 miles!) of moderate totals in the gradient, and then <3" to the north of that.

 

All you know right now is the probability of being in the good side of that gradient.  South parts of our area are probably, what, 80%?  Up by Poughkeepsie, probably what, 25%?  And NYC is probably what, 60%?

 

That fundamental truth hasn't changed since 1PM yesterday.  Literally, we've had probably a dozen runs, all in - GFS op runs, GFS paras, 0Z Euro, the 0Z and 12Z Canadian, the NAM, and the probabilities are basically unchanged.   The models have narrowed in on a very clear solution - frankly we could be 6 hours out from the storm and you still might have the same uncertainty - we had it in 2/2010.

Spot on!

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The Euro finally has a clue. Must've been extra data and the fact the system is fully sampled now.

Normally I would downplay what models show for a system but this one could still be underestimated. The great ones always seem to overperform and exceed our expectations.

I expect a few more nudges north over the next 48 hrs.

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