Allsnow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Biggest change I see is less confluence north of us on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Some other issues as we get into day 3 with weaker riding out West and a flattening of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It's enough to hold the bulk of the precip south of us. Serious question: how far can mesoscale banding occur from the center of low pressure? Right now, pretty much all the guidance is outside the BM. If you look at the precip map, everything looks fine and dandy, but the upper air maps look very close to the Euro runs. Not sure how we're supposed to get a foot of snow if the low tracks due east of the Outer Banks. According to several mets on this forum... the mid and upper levels looks just fine. We need to see if the double barrel is going to rob some of the moisture. I know your trying to keep all options open at this point but you seem to be being a little nit picky here. Even with that depiction on the GFS and GGEM we still get a lot of snow... Idk what the issue is here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Snow into the area by sunrise Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Biggest change I see is less confluence north of us on the euro Did that s/w get out of the way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The precip shield is quite a bit further North and more intense by Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Wow, major changes by 72 hrs with the 500mb low over Central NC instead of SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Moderate snow up to I-84 by Saturday early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Saturday late afternoon heavy snow to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The 500mb low ends up several hundred miles northeast of 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This is a much better run North of the city than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Noticeably north of the 00z Excellent trends on this run. Much less confluence out ahead and the PVA is going to allow a tuck right into the coast Enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Hr 84 heavy snow continues from NYC south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Hr 87 NYC and immediate suburbs are getting crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It's peanut butter Euro time. Now THIS run changes the equation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Still snowing heavy at 06z Sunday in the metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Now we can start breathing. Game on. We will wake up to Blizzard watches by tomorrow am ( possibly as early as tonight) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 And by Sunday morning it's the big dig out time Close to 1.50 qpf NYC Sharp cutoff north of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Long Island looks good too I believe I think we're going see a middle ground of the extreme north coast running gfs and the south Carolina Euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 .75+ from hpn to bdr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 .75+ from hpn to bdr That's decent. Nice ratios will produce around 10 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What's hpn? To bdr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Long Island looks good too I believe I think we're going see a middle ground of the extreme north coast running gfs and the south Carolina Euro solution. Models are coming in much much colder today, most of the island looks to remain all snow, and those who do change over will flip back rather quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 20, 2016 Author Share Posted January 20, 2016 So now we have the NAM, GFS, GGEM, EURO for NYC-N/C NJ in the 1-2' camp within 2.5-3 days....game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYStorm Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 No one is fine or not fine. There will be a sharp gradient and a ton (1-2') of snow south of that gradient, a very narrow zone (could be 10-20 miles!) of moderate totals in the gradient, and then <3" to the north of that. All you know right now is the probability of being in the good side of that gradient. South parts of our area are probably, what, 80%? Up by Poughkeepsie, probably what, 25%? And NYC is probably what, 60%? That fundamental truth hasn't changed since 1PM yesterday. Literally, we've had probably a dozen runs, all in - GFS op runs, GFS paras, 0Z Euro, the 0Z and 12Z Canadian, the NAM, and the probabilities are basically unchanged. The models have narrowed in on a very clear solution - frankly we could be 6 hours out from the storm and you still might have the same uncertainty - we had it in 2/2010. Spot on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What's hpn? To bdr? Bdr is bridgeport i believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That's decent. Nice ratios will produce around 10 inches Where winds are lower, ratios would be better. High winds break the flakes apart and lower ratios. Good to see the Euro nudge north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The Euro finally has a clue. Must've been extra data and the fact the system is fully sampled now. Normally I would downplay what models show for a system but this one could still be underestimated. The great ones always seem to overperform and exceed our expectations. I expect a few more nudges north over the next 48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Looks like kind of a hybrid of 1996 and PDI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Very sharp cutoff (sharper than 0z) north of the city. 14 inches for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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