Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 84 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The GGEM also jumps the surface low way East. From just South of Ocean City, MD to South of the benchmark in 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 12z GGEM should be another big hit. NYC south does really great, but there is going to be a massive cutoff due to the banding it has. Also hints of convective feedback issues, but its been doing this for a couple cycles now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Canadian is great for KNYC ,LI, CNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The GGEM also jumps the surface low way East. From just South of Ocean City, MD to South of the benchmark in 3 hours. Seems like Convective feedback, but who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dhaulagiri1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The GGEM also jumps the surface low way East. From just South of Ocean City, MD to South of the benchmark in 3 hours. Is this the unfortunate outcome of the modeled dual low structure that OKX references in the AFD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Maybe, that double low scenario is messing it up? It's struggling to pick one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Juno started doing exactly the same thing right at this range I believe and it came to fruition. Let's hope that this time the feedback is completely bogus and we do not get a Juno repeat at least in my area as well as many others in New Jersey. The Euro didn't until 12 hours before the storm began Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Seems like Convective feedback, but who knows How likely is it for 2 models to have feedback issues and getting the same result? Euro will be interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 How likely is it for 2 models to have feedback issues and getting the same result? Euro will be interesting! Really likely, actually. Parameterization schemes are not dissimilar between models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Maybe, that double low scenario is messing it up? It's struggling to pick one IMHO going to come down to a nowcast. With all the convection I am not sure the models resolve this accurately. I could be flat wrong but that 200-300 mile jump in mere hours really seems suspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I like the setup at the mid and upper level on the GFS and CMC, the QPF as usual is varying from run to run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 IMHO going to come down to a nowcast. With all the convection I am not sure the models resolve this accurately. I could be flat wrong but that 200-300 mile jump in mere hours really seems suspect. You can clearly see that from hour 78 all the way to hour 114, it's having a hell of a time with the low/lows placements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dhaulagiri1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 How likely is it for 2 models to have feedback issues and getting the same result? Euro will be interesting! It is a very curious look at 87hr on the GFS, negative tilt and center racing east 500 miles out from the base of the trough. I suppose it is possible, but I've never seen it before, can anyone come up with an historical example? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Really likely, actually. Parameterization schemes are not dissimilar between models.This storm has copious amounts if energy with it. Combine that with warm sst's and the gom open for business and convective feedback is very possible. Gfs and ggem tend to have trouble resolving powerhouses, especially with the energy this storm has Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I like the setup at the mid and upper level on the GFS and CMC, the QPF as usual is varying from run to run I'm not concerned with the QPF as much as I am concerned about the surface low jumping East instead of stalling right off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I like the setup at the mid and upper level on the GFS and CMC, the QPF as usual is varying from run to run Yes, we are still 3 days away, mid/upper levels are really all that count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 my biggest worry is the confluence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Jan 20 12z Summary NYC: Snowfall projections NAM: great thru 84 - extrapolated looks 12-20 GFS: 7 - 11 GGEM: 15 - 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I mean,looking at the cmc as well, it's as if the low doesn't want to move as fast as the precipitation.. upper level winds? Model problem? Never really seen that happen much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The Euro didn't until 12 hours before the storm began I was really only referencing the GFS/GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Jan 20 12z Summary NYC: Snowfall projections NAM: great thru 84 - extrapolated looks 12-20 GFS: 7 - 11 GGEM: 15 - 22 Can you post a GGEM snow map? Not that I take it seriously, but pretty colors sizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 my biggest worry is the confluence Going to be a tight gradient to the north with this system...hopefully 100 miles north of 2-5-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikeysed Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 +1 GGEM snow map please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Can you post a GGEM snow map? Not that I take it seriously, but pretty colors sizzle. I dont have access yet i was counting the 6 hour frames which is why the bigger spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 +1 GGEM snow map please CMC snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I was really only referencing the GFS/GGEM.They were never really on board with juno certainly not for days like this timeSent from my VS986 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I dont have access yet i was counting the 6 hour frames which is why the bigger spread. What is the orientation of the cutoff? SW-NE? E-W? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 CMC snow map Doesn't the storm extend out further past hour 96?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Doesn't the storm extend out further past hour 96?? It's tugged east before it can drop more. Quick exit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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