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Jan 23/24 Major Coastal Storm Discussion


Zelocita Weather

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IMHO going to come down to a nowcast. With all the convection I am not sure the models resolve this accurately. I could be flat wrong but that 200-300 mile jump in mere hours really seems suspect.

You can clearly see that from hour 78 all the way to hour 114, it's having a hell of a time with the low/lows placements.

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How likely is it for 2 models to have feedback issues and getting the same result? Euro will be interesting!

It is a very curious look at 87hr on the GFS, negative tilt and center racing east 500 miles out from the base of the trough. I suppose it is possible, but I've never seen it before, can anyone come up with an historical example?

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Really likely, actually. Parameterization schemes are not dissimilar between models.

This storm has copious amounts if energy with it. Combine that with warm sst's and the gom open for business and convective feedback is very possible. Gfs and ggem tend to have trouble resolving powerhouses, especially with the energy this storm has

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk

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