EastonSN+ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Mixing issues for the Eastern 1/3rd of Long Island. Still a long way to go on this one. Where can u get the colored maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Crazy gradient... I.E. Orange county southern portion 20"... northern portion 6" through 00z Sunday. Wham bam thank you Nam. Now lets hope the real models do not follow their ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Upper levels looked significantly improved on the NAM. Didn't make much difference up here, but congrats you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Wow, the NAM (not unexpectedly) goes crazy for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Wham bam thank you Nam. Now lets hope the real models do not follow their ensembles There is some and I mean some agreement to this sort of QPF output... If this model would of been able to run through the entire storm a lot of places would be over 2+ feet some getting to 3+ feet... So lets just take it with a grain of salt. but again I like to see the NAM doing this at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 A very '96ish evolution there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The 0z parallel Euro at 0z is further NW than the OP with heavier snow across the area. It just updated a few minutes ago. Where do you have access to that model? SV hasn't updated in days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Mixing issues for the Eastern 1/3rd of Long Island. Still a long way to go on this one. Amazing how the mixing looks too be primarily on the south fork, but close to the north fork on the east end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The 0z parallel Euro at 0z is further NW than the OP with heavier snow across the area. It just updated a few minutes ago. Great.... funny thing I was looking at '96 evolution this morning and watching the radar loop over and over again... I couldn't believe how similar it looked it terms of how long it took for the snow to reach us. It will be a long wait from the time the snow reaches southern NJ before it reaches us. We must be patient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 There is a 12z/19 Euro para run on SV that is further NW than 12z/19 Euro op. I haven't seen the 0z/20 Euro para yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What time will a blizzard watch be issued for NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYStorm Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Would you rather have it out to sea. Not the point. The NAM is notorious for overdoing QPF. You just have to keep that in mind when you're looking at totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 What time will a blizzard watch be issued for NYC? Probably 8pm if all holds, if not by tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Not the point. The NAM is notorious for overdoing QPF. You just have to keep that in mind when you're looking at totals. Yes, though in this case, it actually appears to be fairly in line with the other models down south. Actually surprised me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYStorm Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yes, though in this case, it actually appears to be fairly in line with the other models down south. Actually surprised me. Not saying to ignore it. It could have validity in terms of many things but QPF is not one of them. The other thing you have to keep in mind with respect to the other models is the Euro is generally given high weighting in terms of accuracy. I hope it comes north a little bit today. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Not saying to ignore it. It could have validity in terms of many things but QPF is not one of them. The other thing you have to keep in mind with respect to the other models is the Euro is generally given high weighting in terms of accuracy. I hope it comes north a little bit today. We shall see. I believe we will see a northern push with the EURO at 12z. It shifted nicely north last night which made everyone happy and showed 6-12 throughout the entire NYC region. The main thing I hope the model correct is the sharp cutoff that at the current time extends in our far NW areas (Sullivan, Ulster, Orange and Dutchess counties). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The confluence on the GFS is weaker and heights are building ahead of the ULL. Game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The confluence on the GFS is weaker and heights are building ahead of the ULL. Game on. The kiss of confluence to strengthen the surface high, which we need given the slightly sub-optimal airmass. Then get the hell out of the way to let the thing roll up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The kiss of confluence to strengthen the surface high, which we need given the slightly sub-optimal airmass. Then get the hell out of the way to let the thing roll up the coast. Antecedent airmass is actually pretty solid - can't thumb your nose at -10C 850s as the storm approaches... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The confluence on the GFS is weaker and heights are building ahead of the ULL. Game on. h5 looks great, looks like it's trying to come further north with the better heights over eastern canada @ hr60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The trough is actually more progressive this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The trough is actually less amplified this run so that's one negative. H5 still looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Lows a tick north same time Fran as 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The trough is actually more progressive this run.we want that so it maxes out later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Antecedent airmass is actually pretty solid - can't thumb your nose at -10C 850s as the storm approaches... Yes, but if you have a staller than you're going to modify that airmass during the storm, like 96 did. This is more like 92, but 6 weeks later in the season, which makes ALL the difference. 92 probably would've been snow to the coast in mid January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 My only worry is that the ULL is quite a bit further East so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Lows def north of 06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I do think we're going to be seeing some slight northward adjustments in track before all is said and done from where consensus is today. This past Sunday's system fresh in my mind, best explanation I have for it is the very warm water off the coast painting a pretty good picture of where the baroclinic zone will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Yanks are you seeing double low at 60hr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 we want that so it maxes out later More recent runs have given our area some great frontogenic forcing... we actually could eclipse DC here (something always seems to go wrong for them anyway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.