tmagan Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Off runs is goes to 60hrs 54 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 00z Para GFS LINK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 00z Para GFS LINK The para gfs has steadfastly held that much will see unbelievable snowfall through many many runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 06z Gefs and eps support 6-12 for the NYC metro area. Less nw of metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 6-12 is a terrible forecast in NYC. Storms like this generally have a tight gradient of higher totals; almost nothing on one end, 12-18 on the other, with a tiny zone in between. The odds of guessing where that zone falls, especially 2 days out, is basically nil; well more than half the potential outcomes for NYC fall outside that range. It may be guess as to the MEAN outcome but the distribution isn't normal. Basically, 6-12 is someone who is scared to be wrong. Cant really miss with that one! If we get 2", the 6-12" was under much of the guidance and on the right path. Get 18", a slight bust high. But that doesn't make it a good forecast, since it predicts the exact amount of snow we're least likely to get. As long as forecasts are expressed with the same, unscientific standard increments (6-12, 4-8, 12-18, etc) we're going to run into these issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 6-12 is a terrible forecast in NYC. Storms like this generally have a tight gradient of higher totals; almost nothing on one end, 12-18 on the other, with a tiny zone in between. The odds of guessing where that zone falls, especially 2 days out, is basically nil; well more than half the potential outcomes for NYC fall outside that range. It may be guess as to the MEAN outcome but the distribution isn't normal. Basically, 6-12 is someone who is scared to be wrong. Cant really miss with that one! If we get 2", the 6-12" was under much of the guidance and on the right path. Get 18", a slight bust high. But that doesn't make it a good forecast, since it predicts the exact amount of snow we're least likely to get. As long as forecasts are expressed with the same, unscientific standard increments (6-12, 4-8, 12-18, etc) we're going to run into these issues. From the point of view of weather buffs you're right' but the function of a three-day out forecast is to put the public on notice of when they'll be able to go about their business and when that may be a problem. 6-12" does that job just fine since it alerts the public that a disruptive storm is on the way. What was wrong was last January where the forecasts included snow of Biblical proportions and 8" was a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 6-12 is a terrible forecast in NYC. Storms like this generally have a tight gradient of higher totals; almost nothing on one end, 12-18 on the other, with a tiny zone in between. The odds of guessing where that zone falls, especially 2 days out, is basically nil; well more than half the potential outcomes for NYC fall outside that range. It may be guess as to the MEAN outcome but the distribution isn't normal. Basically, 6-12 is someone who is scared to be wrong. Cant really miss with that one! If we get 2", the 6-12" was under much of the guidance and on the right path. Get 18", a slight bust high. But that doesn't make it a good forecast, since it predicts the exact amount of snow we're least likely to get. As long as forecasts are expressed with the same, unscientific standard increments (6-12, 4-8, 12-18, etc) we're going to run into these issues. Upton is currently saying 6-8" for the NYC area. Ensemble guidance shows that we will either get plastered with over a foot or almost nothing. They are giving themselves flexibility so they can adjust accordingly tomorrow. It's pretty smart move. Notice how they kept the totals in the AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Upton is currently saying 6-8" for the NYC area. Source? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Don't get burned by euro again folks. A blend of gfs/euro seems like the best way to go for now. Slight changes up north means the difference between south of nyc crush job or nyc crush. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 No imby, and please proofread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Source? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Does anyone have a link or knowledge of site that could show the potential surge forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Source? Isnt that old though? The latest one only goes through 7am, not 7pm. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Source? That's only through 7pm Sat. We should still be ripping all Sat night into Sun morning. I think 12-16" is a good forecast based on current guidance and analogs. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 06z GFS MAX RES 06z GEFS MEAN MAX RES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Upton updated flood potential .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A POTENTIAL NOR`EASTER COULD PRODUCE MULTIPLE EPISODES OF COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE SAT INTO SUN. THE TIDES OF PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE SAT MORNING AND SAT NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL GALE TO STORM FORCE NE WINDS PILING WATER ALONG THE COAST. POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 1/2 TO 2 FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND 2 1/4 TO 3 FT FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WITH THE SAT MORNING HIGH TIDE. AVAILABLE TIDAL GUIDANCE (BASED ON GFS) IS INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR 2 TO 3 1/2 FT OF SURGE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WHICH WOULD SIGNAL POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. FOR THE SAT EVENING HIGH TIDE...POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 2 TO 2 1/2 FT OR SURGE ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND 3 TO 4 FT FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. IF NE GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS CONTINUE UNTIL THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOOD ONCE AGAIN. THE MOST VULNERABLE TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING WOULD BE ALONG WESTERN/CENTRAL HALF OF LI SOUND AND SOUTHERN BAYS OF WESTERN LI AND NYC...AND TRADITIONALLY VULNERABLE PORTIONS OF NY HARBOR. FOR THE SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE THE SURGE SHOULD BE LOWERING DUE TO WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY...BUT POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING EXISTS. BASED ON SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE ON TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS COMPLEX NOR`EASTER...AND THEREFORE STRENGTH AND DIRECTION OF WIND FIELDS...CONFIDENCE IS ONLY MODERATE IN THE SURGE RANGE AT THIS TIME. SOME THINGS TO KEEP IN MIND...THE TENDENCY IS FOR MODELS TO UNDERESTIMATE THE NORTHWARD BACKING OF WINDS OF INTENSIFYING NOR`EASTERS TRACKING TO THE SE OF LI...WHICH IN TURN ACTS TO REDUCE SURGE ALONG THE TRI-STATE AREA. ALSO...LOOKING BACK AT SURGE FROM THE TOP 3 STORM ANALOGS AS ANALYZED BY SAINT LOUIS UNIVERSITY CIPS PAGE (JAN 7-8 1996, MAR 3 1994, AND DEC 2010)...BETWEEN 2 1/2 TO 4 FT OF SURGE WERE EXPERIENCED WITH THOSE PARTICULAR STORMS. THIS SURGE RANGE MATCHES FAIRLY WELL WITH CURRENT SURGE FORECASTS...BUT PAST RESULTS DO NOT GUARANTEE FUTURE FORECASTS...SO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. IN ADDITION TO SURGE POTENTIAL...AN EASTERLY SWEEP OF 8 TO 12 FT SURF WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR DUNE TOE EROSION ALONG ALL ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED DUNE OVERWASHES FOR THE BARRIER BEACHES FROM FIRE ISLAND AND POINTS WEST ON SATURDAY. THIS IS BASED ON USGS COASTAL CHANGE HAZARDS MODELING FOR A GALE FORCE NOR-EASTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 NAVGEM is really ugly.... Nobody sees accumulation north of Southern MD... Highest precip around Southern North Carolina lmao.. Oh these models make me laugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This is a bad sign IMO. The OP is increasingly by itself in showing a major snowstorm for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I've very very rarely have heard anyone say double barrel low before. Upton mentioned that this morning, would that be the 2 lows that some models continue to show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Upton is currently saying 6-8" for the NYC area. Ensemble guidance shows that we will either get plastered with over a foot or almost nothing. They are giving themselves flexibility so they can adjust accordingly tomorrow. It's pretty smart move. Notice how they kept the totals in the AFD. I know the NWS does this, but I think it's stupid / patronizing. They assume the public can't understand the actual forecast so they make up a fake one with the least chance of verifying. IIRC the research on this shows that the public can understand a more accurate forecast. What they're doing is CYA - forecasting to avoid a fiasco - rather than presenting the public with the best information for people to make independent judgments about preparation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This is a bad sign IMO. The OP is increasingly by itself in showing a major snowstorm for NYC. We're at the range where the OP's are becoming more useful than the ensembles. I'm not saying they should be ignored, but the mean is still 4-6" which really isn't bad at this range. Ensembles aren't going to pick up things like mesoscale banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 This is a bad sign IMO. The OP is increasingly by itself in showing a major snowstorm for NYC. It was similiar on the 0z run and then it continued on the 6z run. We have already been burned this winter by the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 that map makes no sense if upton is worried about mixing issues long island would be ore likely for that to happen then the city.. yet more snow on long island... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I can tell you for certain that the 12z NAM initialized with all of the energy fully onshore. The shortwave involved currently is near the Nevada/Idaho border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It was similiar on the 0z run and then it continued on the 6z run. We have already been burned this winter by the ensembles. I'm I the only one that finds it completely off that every Ens is off from the OP... My opinions, models do NOT have a Handle on this.. Room to move, hate to use the same thing, but his could have 96' repeat written all over the it ( fingers crossed) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 We're at the range where the OP's are becoming more useful than the ensembles. I'm not saying they should be ignored, but the mean is still 4-6" which really isn't bad at this range. Ensembles aren't going to pick up things like mesoscale banding. Also, see the BOX AFD. They argue that the lower-res ensembles are too far south because they can't see the impact of anomalously warm SSTs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It looks like the highest storm surge may now come at the Saturday evening high tide. The morning has the highest astronomical of the day and the evening a little lower. GFS guidance is indicating that there could be a surge of 4 feet or more Saturday evening. The current run is close to a March 93 or March 10 level. A surge closing in on 5 feet would approach Hurricane Irene coastal flooding levels. Major tidal flooding begins at 8.7 feet at Sandy Hook. njsand.gif Is there a link for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Cobb Snow Algorithm (LGA) which last night(00Z) increased precip. to 2"+ but wasted half of it as rain, leaving 8" snow total with a minimal ratio of 8:1 is now (06Z) down to about 1.6" but has it as an all 10:1 ratio snow event, or 16" total, in line with most of yesterday's outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I'm I the only one that finds it completely off that every Ens is off from the OP... My opinions, models do NOT have a Handle on this.. Room to move, hate to use the same thing, but his could have 96' repeat written all over the it ( fingers crossed) No. It's deffinitly becoming concerning and has become the norm tracking this storm. Leaves gray area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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