HailMan06 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Huge, sharp cutoff north and west of NYC on the Euro. The Euro is 3-4 inches for my area in Rockland County, north and west of Rockland, even less.Ensembles or OP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 6z GFS is a major hit for the whole area and colder than 0z. 1.5-2.00 qpf across the entire region. It ticked slightly south and east from 0z but the Precip shield is more expansive getting into NY, CT, and extreme southern New England. 30-36 hour event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 6z rgem is a crush job for the nyc area. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 6z rgem is a crush job for the nyc area. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Thats the GGEM after 60hrs (00z run) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That's the best GFS run yet wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The 06z GFS is 1-2 feet for everyone except the East end of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Nobody mentioned it, but the NAM shifted quite a bit south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Euro ensembles?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 That's the best GFS run yet wow It has a much better look, but it actually shifted a little south for the city itself and cut back a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 The NAM has a very sharp cutoff near the city. It has the city at only 3-4 inches by 18z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Upton has 6-8 inches for nyc on their snowmap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It has a much better look, but it actually shifted a little south for the city itself and cut back a little.Because the run doesn't go out far enough, that's just the overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Because the run doesn't go out far enough, that's just the overrunning. I was referring to the 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I was referring to the 6z GFS.Because of mixing not a South shift.And you mentioned the NAM also which that post pertained Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Upton has 6-8 inches for nyc on their snowmap. SUPER conservative but they have to be at this point. Highlight a 6"+ storm on the way with wind and coastal flooding. Up totals 12 hours before. That's what they'll do. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poleshiftnow Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Thats the GGEM after 60hrs (00z run) Time stamp says 6z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Time stamp says 6z run?The RGEM runs to 60 hrs only.06z GGEM doesn't exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Time stamp says 6z run?Rgem is the short range of the ggem. Only goes to 48 hrs Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Rgem is the short range of the ggem. Only goes to 48 hrs Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Off runs is goes to 60hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Off runs is goes to 60hrsGood to know, thanks brother Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 I was referring to the 6z GFS.6z gfs is 1-2 feet for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Upton has 6-8 inches for nyc on their snowmap.It only runs through 7pm Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Euro ensembles??Not bad, not great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Not bad, not great meaning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It only runs through 7pm Saturday. Can someone post a link. I either had the wrong one of my cache is very screwed up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Can someone post a link. I either had the wrong one of my cache is very screwed up. It only runs through 7 am. The latest NWS briefing can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Briefings/WxBriefing_FB.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Nobody mentioned it, but the NAM shifted quite a bit south.Inaccurate based on H5. If anything it slowed just a hair, but this is the long range NAM we are discussing. Not worth it til the NAM is within about 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It has a much better look, but it actually shifted a little south for the city itself and cut back a little.Again, inaccurate when looking at what is going on aloft. And even IF a model wavered slightly/fluctuated/ticked a hair south, you probably dont want a continual trend North with every run. Hang in there, I think DCA-NYC is in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 It only runs through 7 am. The latest NWS briefing can be found at: http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Briefings/WxBriefing_FB.pdf Thanks, i was looking for this link. I found it. They updated it as of 6:28. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/stormtotalprecip.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 20, 2016 Share Posted January 20, 2016 Not bad, not greatThe ens have their time and place. Generally when an op model is in its wheelhouse, we put the ens aside and roll with the op as the perturbations in the shorter range can severely skew individuals as well as the mean. Ive generally done well 5 days or greater out with the ens, not as successful in the near-term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.